"the Fed Is Preparing For Failure" By Mike Swanson

[SupplySider]

In order to get price inflation you must simultaneously get wage inflation.  Would someone pleas explain how this is going to happen in the current and likely future job markets?

An increase in money supply doesn't have to show up in wages. It can show up in surplus credit (read: debt) that is used to chase goods and services ... which in turn will drive up prices assuming no change in supply.

[SupplySider]

I'm going to bookmark this page for future reference...  This is no different than where I was in 4Q 1999, everyone thought I was nuts then too...

Fart,

 

I'd agree with your analysis except I find it difficult to believe that bearishness will reach such proportions in 2003 to create a contrarian rally. You may seem overwhelming bearishness here .... but CapitalStool does not represent the majority. That doesn't mean you can't be right. You could be. And, I'd be the last person to be surprised. It's just that the planet alignment you are expecting just doesn't pass the smell test.

[Hypertiger]

At what point will it become sickening? 18 months... 18 months is all I give the current global economic system until it collapses into ashes. There is nothing other than a miracle that can provide any more time to live in the good old days...

 

The system is going to collapse, why? Because that is the way it has been constructed plain and simple. Doomed to failure everytime... Never in the recorded history of the human race has collapse been prevented once maxout of debt inflation occurs. Never once debt inflation is at the maximum potential, it's over, finished...

[SupplySider]

You just have to love it.  Shrub is turning Iraq inside out to find what?  So far nothing.  Meanwhile we have N. Korea, known to have a couple of warheads at least and the ability to manufacture more within 60 to 90 days.

America doesn't go after "evil" countries that possess WMD. Therefore, you can be sure that Iraq does not have WMD.

[LostItAll]

Chibear,

 

You got Yobob wrong!

 

His view doesn't come from thinking that everything Shrub does is wrong. It comes from having his own views, period. There are a lot of people out here who don't agree with Shrub but didn't agree with Clinton either.

 

They are simply putting forward their own views.

 

Nor has any view of Shrub got anything to do with a view of Clinton. When you contrast Shrub with Clinton in the context of this economy or the potential wars ahead, you imply that Clinton was wrong and that Shrub is right. Or that Clinton is worse and Shrub is better.

 

Fact is: Clinton was what he is and Shrub is what he is. They are both different to each other and some of the situations they are dealing with are different.

 

Their "worseness" or "betterness" compared to each other has got nothing to do with the best path to take to deal with the current situations this country faces.

 

LostItAll

[Guest yobob1]

Supplysider, it will have to show up as debt since it can't magically arrive on the credit side of the balance sheet. It is always debt somewhere. The question that remains is where will the debt show up? Consumers are already heavily indebted and have had virtually every whim or desire satisfied. Possibly as mortgage money, but here again you have a problem in that even at free money rates, house prices having risen far faster than wages, are becoming increasingly priced out of people's reach. Especially for the increasing numbers of unemployed. Corporations' balance sheets have little tolerance for any additional debt load and what would they do with it? Build more factories they can shutter? I suspect that should Easy AL actually commit the deed, the "money" would end up rotting in a digital vault with few viable outlets. Nobody has satisfactorily shown the necessary transmission mechanism to parties which would acutally spend the money. If monetary pumping was going to have a serious affect on price inflation it would have shown up long ago. Instead all it seems to do is run around in the financial world as the banker's deceive themselves into believing they are gaining ground, when in fact, it is all just so many digital entries that can disappear just as fast as they were created. Like casino chips, they aren't worth a plug nickel outside the casino.

 

Chibear I have no love for any politician. If you do an honest review of all of our military excursions since WW II, it's really difficult to find any one of them you would label as a success. Ok I'll give you Grenada, but really? Eisenhower was correct to warn of the military-industrial complex.

[richmtn]

You just have to love it. ?Shrub is turning Iraq inside out to find what? ?So far nothing. ?Meanwhile we have N. Korea, known to have a couple of warheads at least and the ability to manufacture more within 60 to 90 days.

America doesn't go after "evil" countries that possess WMD. Therefore, you can be sure that Iraq does not have WMD.

Nice take. <_<

[Hypertiger]

The political structure of the US has become puss. They are all traitors. They will need martial law soon to maintain control... It will be, "papers please..." Just to move around.

 

There is another Terrorist attack looming...

[DogBoy]

What's going on in Iraw and NK is essentially Gun Control For Nations.

 

And since we know for sure that gun control has never worked ANYWHERE it's ever been tried we can also be sure that this attempt in WMD CONTROL will end likewise.

 

The plain and simple fact is that ever since Cain and Abel in the Bible folks have been getting mad at each other and finding whatever kind of weapon they could and killin 'em.

 

And the only solution to this is to change men's hearts.

 

Violence begets violence --- it's a never ending saga.

 

Jesus said that when you fight evil with wvil, EVIL ALWAYS wins. How true that is for nations, people, children or anyone.

 

If you win nations and people over to the idea of peace and international cooperation you don't need arms inspectors.

 

I just knwe when Shrub mentioned NK in the State Of Union address as part of the Axis of Evil that we were headed for trouble there.

 

Using the "E" world on people or nations does not win them over to you or make them more passive. It's a strong word and most folks take REAL offense to it's use against them.

 

What we're witnessing today is the most spectacular foreign policy failure in the history of the USA. This will, unfortunately end VERY badly for Dubya and his presidency.

 

And just as with the stock market people are being bull-shitted all the way into to thinking that "black is white" and "white is black".

 

And like our former fearless leader Bill Clinton once insinuated:

 

"Don't beleive your lyin' eyes"

 

Instead beleive me, the liar.

[megabear]

Roosevelt had essentially the same problem. He knew that creating debt gave the economy the appearance of recovery. His New Deal I, modified to version II and version III, seemed to work at first, but then fell apart at the seams as all he was really doing was creating debt at an amazing rate and shoveling it into welfare programs. All the BS about him saving the country from depression is exactly that BS. Sure the receivers of the billions were happy campers, (and they proved it by voting him in over and over; afraid to loose their dole) but he didn't really produce anything that would drive a capitalistic system. When he first took office, the public deficit was 20 billion dollars; when he left it was 250 billion (add to that the fact that prices were doubled and the lower end worker was a pauper). It was right around the beginning of his third term that he realized that he could create all this debt but what to spend it on? He and his economic team of debt wizards bashed their collective heads trying to think of what to spend the money on. When he spent it on structures in the individual states, the states themselves could not afford to man and mantain them, so many of them just sat idle. How many new road do you need when no one can afford cars anyway? Then he realized that the only answer to his problem was to get the US involved in Hitler's war. He could spend his way out of this mess by buying war materials and he could fulfill two dreams at once; leave office as an economic hero and a war-President hero. Now....how to get the sheeple to go for the war when he ran on a platform of Neutrality? Robert Stinnet answers that question for us in his blockbuster book, "Day of Deceit".

 

Bush will do the same; that's where all of Greenies new moo-la will be headed.

[SkiddMarket]

I don't get it. How does building roads with borrowed dollars "waste" money, while building battleships with borrowed dollars put money to work? If you take your battleship, conquer a neighboring country, plunder the defeated nation, steal their resources, and get slave labor to boot, yeah- that does create wealth. But to send the battleship to Europe, "liberate" everyone, and then send even more money out to rebuild Japan and Germany.... nope- I don't get the connection. We're still driving on Roosevelt's roads- in hindsight (always 20/20) the investment in the transportation infrastruction in the 40's and 50's played a big role in our prosperity of the 60's through to the present.

 

BTW, I just got back from vacation, but I don't see anyone mentioning our new Senate Majority Leader- a SURGEON!! Since about half of medicine right now is paid for here in the good old USA by the government, this is gonna be a bonanza for docs and hospitals. Greenspan needs a place to pump dollars? Why, our health care system could use a few bucks (I know I certainly could). Keep your eye on the Medicare fee schedule. Betcha the 5% cut is rescinded pronto. There's gonna be dancin' in the OR's in the fall.

[Guest AssMaster]

Would you prefer more lawyers?

 

The ABA and the AMA are the two biggest labor unions in the country, yet none has ever tried to bust them up. Why, I wonder.

[SkiddMarket]

When it comes to the AMA, it's difficult to call it a union. In any city of thousands of doctors, it's a criminal offense for any two of them to get together and discuss fees. In any way shape or form. It's illegal for a doctor to charge a Medicare patient even a nickle above the federally mandated fee schedule. Or below the fee schedule. Punishable by imprisonment. There are special taxes in many states payable only by physicians (FL is one of them). All medical practices are very closely regulated by local, state, and federal goverment- with insurance costs the highest of any profession and rising up to 30%/year in many states. Most hospitals in the U.S. are currently losing money on every patient over 65 that they care for. In fact, unionization of physicians is currently ILLEGAL in all 50 states for the purposes of collective bargaining.

 

Just thought you'd like to know.

[DrStool]

Blaming Roosevelt for getting us into WWI for economic reasons,seems patently idiotic, and frankly, grossly offensive. Would you rather be saying Seig Heil!

 

This thread has gotten so far off topic, I'm shuttin' it down.

 

I'd also like a volunteer to act as a moderator for this forum. The thread should have been split into Political Stool a couple pages back, but I don't have time to read everything.

 

If you're intererested, and have been aorund here long enough for me to know you well, let me know.