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wooooooooooooooooooooooowza,

 

buttugly-

first off kudos for your honesty, most people find it hard to admit to anything less than full understanding, may your humility be revisted upon you a thousand times.

 

secondly, as to the question i posed on real estate, "any home owner should seriously think about what prices they would sell", i am not, repeat AM NOT espousing real estate as a hedge to deflation. rather i offer that if rates DO tank as the deflationary teeth start to sharpen, hordes upon hordes WILL flock to real estate as a 'perceived' safe haven. this will only last as long as the FEED will let it- until it becomes politically and economically untenable to support busted-out over-indebted homeowners. now if we consider the superhuman pumping by the FEED to support a 'paper' market like the stock market, imagine if you will what lengths the FEED would traverse to help out, lend assistance to, bridge loan to-even-on-the resale, or simply bail out Mr and Mrs tripleRefiedHomeOwner of America?

 

kinda scary aint it?

 

butt- if you think this is a housing bubble- brother you aint seen nothing yet. nothing. trick is, it will not be sustainable kinda like NDX 3000, 4000, and 5,000 but hey those were 2000 NDX points that did CRUSH many a short YHOO at 120, AMZN at 200 and JDSU at 145, no?

hopefully you see my point. Japan's realestate bubble contary to popular US sentiment did not crash with the Nikkie but rather preceded it, but and this is a big BIG BUT, Japan never EVER really experienced deflation - you see they and their citizens actually HAD real hard savings. so the real estate/ deflation analogy is DOA when comparing US(currently) and Japan early eighties.

 

thirdly, as to your statement "Some of world's highest income per capita countries are largely service economies. I guess I think we will be OK in the long term," well Butt, you are half way there with me. most of these countries, Switzerland, Singapore, Hong Kong(pre handover) Japan, Denmark, and Norway are either net large oil producers with low population(norway/ bahrain) or tiny island/land enclaves Hong Kong/Singapore/Switzerland with tiny populations residing beside huge consumer market(china/japan/france). Japan retains its lead through sheer domestic savings versus their net exporting volumes, coincidenatlly to the US!!!

 

so you see none and i repeat NONE of these above countries are what one would term as industrial economies (japan excepted) but neither are they comprabale service economies to be compared to where you psotulate the US maybe heading. unless the US could ditch 2/3 of its population in the next ten years OR save 500% in the next ten years its not even remotely comparable. the US IS an industrial economy, why else do you think our population is as high as it is, its not Indians on the reservations driving up those population figures you know? what IS going on is the US manufacturing base is being hollowed out at its core- pure and simple- and pundits in pinstriped suits on the tele can opine all they want about the "growing services sector" and "marvel" at its "productivity gains" but unless we have a HUUUGGGGEEE consumer market to sell those services to- the hollowed out mass will collapse onto itself. this is what Hyper's polemic is all about- and as per current events and trends, the end is indeed upon us.

 

as an aside did not your and or your neighbor's grandparents at one time 'pack their bags for' America??? why should the Sino peninsula be any less hospitable to much needed labor? just a thought- all good things you know.... and all that.

 

 

lastly, and i'm not sure if you were referring your gold question to me directly, but i'll chime in just in case. i'm long physical gold, Kruges, to be exact for a reason, see above hallowing out process. also mr greenspan and mr bernake have put us all on notice to hold paper at our own risk. sure this is reading between the lines but those lines were rather wide. see my previous posts. if deflation is teething then i want my gold pure and simple. i could care less about "inflection points", this mind you coming from me, a trader. that i hope should be enough to let people know where i think we are heading, if my pulling all my cash was not enough then i give up trying.

 

Butt- we may be in for some verrrryyyy veerrryyyy TOUGH TIMES. i'm no cassandra but hard cash, and gold never put anybody in the poor house. like i said earlier i think anyone who can keep their netliq even in '03 will be a winner in anyone's book when we look back five years from now.

 

good luck- i hope this helped clear up any misreads or mispeaks-

 

 

as for the rest of Stoolville- rog- this one is for you.

 

as an early Xmas and a late Hanukkah gift i am giving back to all those who so humbly and unselfishly have given to me. some of you have asked me where i and others like me go for deep info, research, or trustworthy analysis- its a precious commodity nowadays for sure.

 

well we IM each other daily and talk often in the week to share info, data, studies, and gossip, hey we are human dontchaknow. but since so many here are Cmap, Ewave, and Ozzie fans i never thought anyone really cared so i never offered, well some one asked so i will now share one of my most prized online possesions- and before the complaints start rolling in, i know, i know they aint cheap, so enough already, but you DO get what you pay for. plus Lana luvs em:

 

stooltown, rog et.al - merry xmas:

 

http://www.apolloresearch.com

 

stay nimble stay focused and hey, smoke em

 

so says i,

 

MERCILESS

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Hypertiger, gold in a financial asset and debt deflation whirld,you and I are on the same page...

 

"The general idea is that gold tends to rise in purchasing power during a contraction in the REAL value of financial

assets and the outstanding debt still to be serviced.

 

Another view is that the ratio of debt outstanding to

the money supply that can be used to fulfill the obligations

as it circulates in the economy.When the currency weakens,

the gold stock tends to expand in value to the point of

replacing the real cash stock that is lost to currency

depreciation-so the real outstanding debt is payable

by the remaining value of the cash and higher value of the

gold stock."

 

Got that from ORO.Too bad all the big USD players are short

gold,including the FED/Treasury,or so it would appear. I don't think "deep storage" gold can cut the mustard in a crunch.

 

So..... the game continues. They shook down the Phillipines

last week,who's next?

 

Lebanon?

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Merciless: Thanks for your thoughts.

 

In relation to houses you may be right.

At least with a house you have something tangible.

With an owner occupied house you can't go too

wrong over the long term.

 

However I can't see property launching from here. And I

would have to agree with Jim Puplava, seems a bit toppy.

But it wouldn't be the first time I have been wrong.

 

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/o...s/2002/0920.htm

 

In relation to the decline of manufacturing & the economy,

I must admit I am just thinking out aloud. In the short to medium term I think we are screwed. Luckily my kids are all under age 5.

 

As for moving to China - that ain't going to happen for me. My wife is Swedish and she can't believe we let dogs crap on the street - so I don't think she would cope with a country that has 9 of the 10 most polluted cities in the world.

 

As for gold - no arguments. I am looking to get some gold exposure via BEARX.

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The Pimco's of the world have seemingly signalled they will not buy mortgage backed securites down past 5%. So even if Al pushes as hard as that to generate a new round of refi liquidity, seemingly he'll have to do the buying himeself.

 

I understand the Fed has signalled their willingness to buy long term paper, but actually doing it is another matter. And how does that jive with their new found willingness to let gold rise to reflect reflation. What stops the dollar from collapse which would kill.......yada yada.

 

The most intelligent thing I've heard said recently is, "these are uncharted waters." In a lot of ways, this time is different!

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STEEL AND GOLD STEEL AND GOLD

 

A Livermore thought

 

Jessie Livermore made a fortune by getting into Bethlehem Steel before WW One.

 

He waited and waited until it blasted past $100 per share.

 

And it went on going.

 

Now gold has blasted $20 above its $325 resistance point.

 

THIS IS VERY BULLISH FOR A CONTINUANCE OF THE TREND.

 

Eventually Bethlehem topped out above $300 per share.

 

This suggests that gold has a long way to go.

 

ENJOY THE RIDE.

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To post dynamically generated charts-

 

1. Right click on the chart.

 

2. Highlight the entire url in the properties window

 

3. Right click and copy the url

 

4. In your posting screen click the IMG button above the message box.

 

5. Right click and paste the url in the IMG input window

 

6. Add the extension .gif to the end of the url.

 

7. Click OK

 

Your chart will appear in your post.

 

 

GOOOOOO Iggles!

 

Eat cheesesteaks. Love longer.

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I can't believe that some here cannot fathom the possibility of the gold stocks rallying more than a couple of weeks.

 

PNRA can rally uninterrupted for 3 years, gaining 400%.

It did? Longer-term, maybe:

 

SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=pnra,uu[l,a]daclynay[df][pb50!b200!f][ilb14].gif

 

I certainly believe (and hope) that gold stocks will have a run like that. But how would you have done in the short term if you had bought PNRA when the 14-day RSI was above 70? Especially once it has crossed back down below that line? Even if it was early in the bull market? That's what would have happened to you:

 

SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=pnra,uu[l,a]daclynay[d20000301,20000410][pb50!b200!f][ilb14].gif

SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=pnra,uu[l,a]daclynay[d20000410,20000516][pb50!b200!f][ilb14].gif

 

I can pick almost any time period from PNRA's recent history when the RSI(14) was above 70 - and, short-term, the result would be the same. Now, let's take a look at GG:

 

SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=gg,uu[l,a]daclynay[db][pb50!b200!f][ilb14].gif

 

See any similarities? See what is likely to follow? Even if gold is in a multi-year bull market? Let alone if it that e-wave count is right and the POG goes to 185?

 

The point is - buy when the market is Dover Sole; not when it is overbought. And use protective stops, no matter where you believe the market is heading and what the funnymentals are.

 

 

QueerLogic can go from $18 to $45 in less than a month.

 

YHOO can jump from $8 to $17 in less than two weeks.

 

Yet you guys don't think that GG can make it from $10 to an area past $15 over the next couple of weeks?

 

Yes, it can - when it is as Dover Sole as QLGC and YHOO were when they made the jumps you're referring to.

 

What are you guys smoking?

 

Just reading the charts ma'am. :P

 

Regards,

Vesselin

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