GTNWORSE Posted December 20, 2002 Report Share Posted December 20, 2002 Hey Guys, Now remember I don't know shit but: S&P held 883 today and Dow held 8330. Both are 38% retracement levels and were very important to the Gary B Smith chart masturbaters. As Piles pointed out yesterday, and it looks like Brian postioned himself for at the close, this thing is going to turn tomorrow OR ELSE. My question to both Brian, Piles, and The End are do we have enough in the tank to retest the recent highs? Or do we just go to right shoulder territory? Your feedback would be greatly appreciated!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 20, 2002 Report Share Posted December 20, 2002 GTNWorse, I kinda agree with your assessment - I've been neutral since last week although I regret that I didn't reload my shorts on Monday. Looking for this thing to form the right shoulder and higher just to freak out most shorts and suck in more longs, and tank in January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted December 20, 2002 Report Share Posted December 20, 2002 Fart-The Bradley has been a good tool lately and yes 7101 get's the heart racing but as you know the bugger can invert-although I feel January is the beggining of the end. Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fartpolio Manager Posted December 20, 2002 Report Share Posted December 20, 2002 Hey Guys, Now remember I don't know shit but: S&P held 883 today and Dow held 8330. Both are 38% retracement levels and were very important to the Gary B Smith chart masturbaters. As Piles pointed out yesterday, and it looks like Brian postioned himself for at the close, this thing is going to turn tomorrow OR ELSE. My question to both Brian, Piles, and The End are do we have enough in the tank to retest the recent highs? Or do we just go to right shoulder territory? Your feedback would be greatly appreciated!!!!!!!!! Depends on what you mean by "held". Way I see it, both were violated on a print basis... I see it just the other way, we should head down further, at least on the open... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted December 20, 2002 Report Share Posted December 20, 2002 ditto b4, dumped my mar spx puts gain at the 3:30 pm low for an 87% gain since 4 fridays ago. almost entirely in cash. will either collect some jan calls or stay sidelined until after new year, at which point i'll load up the Put Pack with everything i got. mh - further to your point, bill meridian did some exhaustive research on moon cycles (anyone with nothing to do for the next half hour can see his 11-page article here), and found that the greatest average dow rise seemed to be in the balsamic phase (last eighth, or 3-4 days, of old moon cycle) rather than the new moon phase. for those who don't feel like leaving for 1/2 hour, his findings are summarized as follows: "1. The period from the balsamic (last) phase to the new moon (first) phase showed the largest average rate of increase and the smallest average rate of decrease. The period from the full moon to the balsamic (last) phase had the largest average rate of decrease and the smallest average rate of increase. 2. The highest average rates of change occurred in the 2 phases around the new moon. 3. DJIA increases (in terms of the number of increases) were more prevalent between the new moon phase and the 1st quarter phase. 4. Analysis of the ranges revealed that the period between the 1st quarter and the full moon had the widest limits. This period also had the largest average deviation. The period from the 3rd quarter to the new moon had the most narrow range and the smallest average deviation." so the strongest historical moon phase appears this year to correspond perfectly with the Lipsticked Pig Project. fart, i'm a big bradley junkie (in case i haven't mentioned it in, uh, about 30 other posts), but i wouldn't try to work off that one exclusively, since -the bradley is not reliable as a quantitative curve-fitting device (or at least, nobody has built & published a version that is); -that one contains no jan 03 data, and the market sometimes leads or lags the bradley by up to 2 weeks; and -there's a bump on some other bradleys beginning before the new year which interrupts the decline, and which this one appears not to have. arch mentioned down hard in december for 2-3 weeks and then a rally of whatever magnitude, before the terribleterrible Q1 03, and this may have something to do with it. in case you're wondering, there are no horns on my head....not even nubs....i just felt around to make sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midnite lightning Posted December 20, 2002 Report Share Posted December 20, 2002 Fluuuushhhhh, wuuuuuushhh! What?s that sound? Damn! What?s that smell? Something here is really strange. The morning jam sure looked good for a few minutes and wham down the toilet it went. Are these guys in trouble or what? We have one day left and da boyz are dropping the ball. You can see the momentum building to the downside. This pig wants to wind. I?m sure da boyz will try one more run. With just a few days left to trade no matter what they pull, they have lost this year big time. All the spin in the world won?t help these crooks. I can see the sheeple now, calling the borkers and demanding their money back telling them they suck. It will be a hard sell for the borkers to convince the sheeple to try again. Looking at the dow and spx charts, just a bunch of indicators pointing south bound. Sure looks ugly for the bullies but I?m sure da boyz will come to the rescue. Da boyz can mess with the indicators but the trendline doesn?t lie. You know da boyz are going to drop the ball sometime by accident and all this mess will come tumbling down. This will be a joyous day for the bears. In the meantime, I?ll just stay short and watch this game with amazement. I don?t see earnings getting better or any growth except in the unemployment line. GTN, All the resistance was at 8400 and it cracked, it took a few tries. The pig bearly crawled up. It will rip thru 8330. My guess 8100 is the 50% mark then maybe a turn. CYA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted December 20, 2002 Report Share Posted December 20, 2002 GTN- Good question-I'll tell you when we get there-they will drive it as high as they can-but there is so much event risk out there hard to tell. I would suggest you buy some 920 SPX c alls and 880 puts and let the market tell you-you will sleep at night and I would say even keep the losing side the winning side should pay for it and then win with losing side next month-for you though go out till March. Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fartpolio Manager Posted December 20, 2002 Report Share Posted December 20, 2002 Fart-The Bradley has been a good tool lately and yes 7101 get's the heart racing but as you know the bugger can invert-although I feel January is the beggining of the end. Trade Safe! Not saying we couldn't rally over the holiDAZE... stupid things happen in thin markets, I remember a bunch of them, like Y2K software, 4 Kids entertainment. Given the negativity of the Joe Sixpackers, who will be at home gaming the market, they just might be in a selling mood, especially if we don't get some kind of rally before mid-week next week. I sure wouldn't be long that rally though, because fundamentally, we are screwed... and who knows which nite it will be that one decides to hold a long over and wakes up in the morning snuggled up to a big, fat ugly earnings warning or even bankruptcy these days??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted December 20, 2002 Report Share Posted December 20, 2002 6 trading days to reach Abby's downward-adjusted 1250 SPX. Just 60 points a day! Knowing Barron's they'll fire Faber and keep Colon on the 2003 Round Table (the table is round because they know no one will sit on the same side as Abby). Doc - we need to take nominations for the CapitalStool "Brown Table"; six of our best and brightest matching wits with the Streets finest. Oh, by the way, only ONE anal cyst got it right in 2002:The Small World of CNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted December 20, 2002 Report Share Posted December 20, 2002 GTN, Tanks for asking my opinion. I think everything revolves around the 872 area. If we brake that then No, I think 954 was a major high and we just get a move to 923-940 and then down the crapper. This is based on the fact that i see mid Jan as a high not a low. If it's a low then My counts are all screwed up and we may go up alot, later. We shall see. Let me clarify that a little. A further assumtion is made that The low, if it is a low in Jan. will be a higher low then in Oct. If that is the case. YIKES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted December 20, 2002 Report Share Posted December 20, 2002 Oh, by the way, only ONE anal cyst got it right in 2002:The Small World of CNN i like this one the best: Ed Kerschner UBS Warburg 1570 i think his bradley got inverted while he was on vacation last xmas..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted December 20, 2002 Report Share Posted December 20, 2002 The odds are However, That If 872 holds then Yes, We can at least get back up to 955 (truncation). If the 872 level cracks Then we should go down to the 840-850 range, back up to Your shoulder Number and fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 20, 2002 Report Share Posted December 20, 2002 I gots gold! The topic of the week is no doubt gold! As I write this little piece the metal is making another stab @ $350. We have yet to see a real scramble to cover all shorts. That position is so huge we could see another round of panic buying. And who in their right frame of mind would short gold now? The dollar is falling at the same rate as Al is printing them, we've got the Blanchard Suit, and geopolitical tensions, spiking oil prices, Iraq, revived nuclear reactors in Iran and North Korea, and El Qamela making threats. The Chinese retailers have been allowed to buy physical gold and their demand is likely to double in a year. The Chinese Central Bank is loading up too. Keep the POG in the high $340s fur a bit longer and we may get yet another massive wave of shorts going long and taking out $353! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted December 20, 2002 Report Share Posted December 20, 2002 Iv'e been talking to myself about this for days now. Since we are still in a bear market, the lower high, lower low theory should still be playing out. Therefore, a break of 872 would most likely produce a lower high or at best a truncation. The fact that we are not going to new lows before another turn back up just means we are in the middle of the move. Hell we could be in a range for months, right Doc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HardStoolGuy Posted December 20, 2002 Report Share Posted December 20, 2002 I can see the sheeple now, calling the borkers and demanding their money back telling them they suck. It will be a hard sell for the borkers to convince the sheeple to try again. BUT Mr. and Mrs. Sheeple, we have NEVER had four down years and as you know the third year of a presidential cycle is ALWAYS up. How can you even think of selling now. NOW is the time to average down. NOW is the time to INVEST! BUY LOW - SELL HIGH. Tell me Mr. Sheeple, how will you be able to look at yourself in the mirror every morning knowing you got out at the bottom? How will you tell your daughter that her college fund is ALL gone because you sold to soon? What will your neighbors think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.