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I think I've figured out Micron's problem.

 

On 3/26/00 I purchased 64MB SDRAM PC100 from Micron for $50.39 plus shipping.

On 5/29/01 I purchased 128MB SDRAM PC133 from Micron for $35.99 with free shipping.

On 9/4/01 I purchased 128MB SDRAM PC100 from Micron for $18.89 with free shipping.

 

Today on ebay you can buy Micron 512MB SDRAM PC133 for $45.00

 

It's hard to make money when the price of memory falls from 78.7? per MB to 8.8? per MB in 33 months.

 

Maybe Joe Osha didn't know that when he came up with this insight yesterday.

 

"Merrill Lynch anal cyst Joseph Osha said he expects Micron, of Boise, Idaho, to post quarterly sales of $951 million

and loss of seven cents a share.

 

For his bullish forecast, Mr. Osha cites better average selling prices for dynamic random access memory, or DRAM,

and the company's speedy transition to DDR memory."

 

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/021216/1251000518_1.html

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Guest AssMaster

Re: Neely

 

We had all better HOPE he is right. If he is, dollar up, oil goes down and *maybe* the economy avoids the 30's scenario. If gold goes over $360, dollar down, oil will go over $50/bbl and we go into the pooper.

 

I suppose that Neely is saying that gold will start following stocks, rather than doing the opposite - as it has been in the recent past. So perhaps the "tell" would be that if the SPX, DJI and NDX indeces AND gold AND gold stocks start running together, we are very near the end for gold, and stocks. When gold is no longer seen as the anti-stock, it will pop and drop.

 

If gold goes over 370, we have the 70's. If it stays under and drops, we have the 90's again?

 

A depression is merely a bad recession made worse by flawed government policies.

 

P.S. If Neely is right about gold, you should avoid BEARX because the 10% gold component will probably make it underperform the reverse index funds.

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For what it is worth, I just got off the phone with a trader whom i dubbed Mr. Big. The guy has been wrong twice in three years and he sees 980ish as well. So Listen to Neely or Don't, I will, with a % of $.

 

Good luck to all.

980 is just a number, I got no problems with it, lots of silly things happen during these holiday trading sessions... who remembers 97 and 98 over these holidays when the idiots ran the Y2K software stocks to the moon?

 

As far as Pixar, why short Santa Claus? Pixar is going up because they are getting a pump from all the movies and characters they've created, the holidays is a natural time for the stock to run... Again, boyzngirlz, silly stuff, who remembers 4 Kids Entertainment over some friggin japanese toy every kid had to have...The stock went ballistic over the holidays

 

So why be short this trash? Let em have their Lobster at the Beach (Sandy Claws) rally..

 

When the real traders return in January, though, it's going to be a whole different story. Meanwhile, take a vacation, draw some bucks down out of your trading account, don't let a silly ass market ruin your holiday... JMO, FWIW, and please use protection if you decide you HAVE to trade this POS...

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Stoolies,

 

Nobody seems to understand me. I don't know why. I don't flip, flop around. I don't get wishy washy. I just am here becuase NOBODY around me seems to understand my bearishness. (plus doc is great).

 

I am a realist. I see the market as over valued and i see it going down to 606-444 (spx) eventually. But, i lost 250,000 last year being a bear. (i was up for clients not trading options, however).

 

Alz i nose iz, you got to know when to hold em' and when to fold em'.

 

I hope i learned that leason. Bin straddled for weeks as this pos has gone noware.

 

Will go net long and then short soon.

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Assmaster_ Gold may well go to $200.- an ounce-because we probably will go the deflation scenario. When (if you're lucky enough to be working) your wages are cut by 1/2, a six pack is a buck and the nickel cigar returns and the 500k house is trying to be sold for a 100k.-GOLD will KEEP it's relative value-that's what GOLD is VALUE denominated relative to the economy of the day... It wasn't just the dirty 30's in 46 and 47 the vet's would knock on your door offering to garden, rake leaves or clean house for a crummy sandwich. You and many others are the children of a privileged generation who are about encounter reality as your parents and grandparents felt it. Get Ready and Trade Safe!

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The Nikkei had its first gain in ten sessions yesterday. Today it's back in the dumpster and is already 139 points in the red @ 8371. The Japanese wants a weaker yen but apparently President Bush wants a strong dollar now. Wasn't the dollar policy one of the reasons why he swapped economic teams in the first place?

 

A weaker dollar will help avert deflation in the US for the time being but not forever. As long as the Chinese Renminbi is pegged to the US dollar, the whole world will get flooded by cheap Chinese products. A weaker dollar will hurt first and foremost Europe and Japan. We've got to let the Renminbi float and appreciate in value like the market would have it do.

 

Anyway, the US needs a softer currency to eliminate the trade deficit and bolster US manufacturing. There is repatriation of foreign funds but not yet at an alarming speed. That may change as we move closer to "neutralising" Saddam. I won't change my bearish mindframe until we see 5,000 on the Dow and gold @ $500

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