Guest Posted July 8, 2003 Report Share Posted July 8, 2003 Every amateur in the country piled into the open causing a massive spike then smacko, the sellers whacked 'em. I know, still early but I just don't see us getting back to the day's high at this stage. One of the reasons is that the big 4 banks, usually leaders on any upside and with a heavy weighting on index, are knee deep in red, heheh been waiting a long time to see that... I have stayed away from shorting them because when there's any green to be had the banks have got more than their fair share. Next bounce I line 'em up in my sights.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 8, 2003 Report Share Posted July 8, 2003 Just Another Day ... Just Another Worldwide Daisy Chain of Central Banksters Circle Jerk Boner Everything feels great again! All full of pep and energy! Al's turned us all on to crystal meth!!! Keep popping them pills and popping them boners -- until even this most massive level of manipulation no longer works either. Then what? Enforce the desired, and at that point meaningless, market prices by gunpoint? Oops. I don't want to give any plutocrats any ideas. My hedged (??) trading is still working and was especially helpful last night; my GBP/USD short gained 200 pips in about two hours during the massive boner and more than made up for the two legs that got spanked. What I do is open one of two positions as shown in the two columns. EUR/USD long short GBP/USD short long EUR/GBP short long Either one of these has me neutral in each of the three currencies. Thanks to lightning fast arbitrage, as the prices bounce around, my net loss stays very near the summed bid/ask spread ... until something moves. In my experience, EUR/USD and GBP/USD always mimic each other very closely, so the EUR/GBP cycle fit has served as the "tiebreaker" so far. As long as it gives some sort of a signal of even slightly better odds one way or another, the odds tip in favor of the corresponding column. So far, I've only been burned once. This happens when things move just enough to stop out one of the legs and then turns back the other way sending one or both of the other legs into a loss. With the worst of luck, I could get stopped out in all three, and if I do this enough I imagine I eventually will. To keep things simple and to test the long-term statistical viability of this, I use a 6-hour (if >50% net profit, which implies at least one stop out) and then a hard 12-hour stop. If after 12 hours all three legs are still in (reflects dull action throughout, hasn't happened yet), I plan to just let it roll over another 12 hours to save transaction costs. I'm happy enough with everything to stick with it without any more tinkering so I can test for long term viability. I like this because through the course of my work on this so far I can see clearly that cycles do exist in the charts and have some sort of firm basis in the behavior of the actual market participants. At the same time, the too frequent, unpredictable and massively scaled manipulation is a real pain in the ass. With the above 3-legged positions, I can still estimate odds with cycles and also hedge against "intervention" for the "stabilizing" the plutocracy, err ... the markets. I think of it as cycle-based intraday trading with boner insurance. Right now, EUR/USD and GBP/USD are hard down on the cycle fit. This may not represent anything real because the shortest term cycles are still out of whack. EUR/GBP is modestly yet clearly down, so this breaks the tie in favor of the first column above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 8, 2003 Report Share Posted July 8, 2003 Every amateur in the country piled into the open causing a massive spike then smacko, the sellers whacked 'em. It's truly amazing, isn't it? You would think at least some of these people would at least be somewhat skeptical. U.S. equities up an absurd amount, USD up an even more absurd amount against many other currencies, and gold way down ... all in a few hours in the midst of the world's current overall economic environment. I sometimes just cannot believe how this goes on and on and on and so many don't get suspicious at all, not even just a wee little bit of suspicion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 8, 2003 Report Share Posted July 8, 2003 The day continued in a nicely bearish fashion.... big up, big down then sideways ..... hmmm could technically be called a blow off. The banks continued to get hammered, down around an average of 2%. GROWL... All Ords still managed to close in the green, +8.2 (+ 0.3%) but way off the intraday high. Golds got a beating, was a bit quick to step into the LHG call yesterday but not to worry.. Nikkei failed to hold above 10k and correct me if I'm wrong, might have made a doji star for the day. If it did then that's a major reversal signal.... Seems like the universe is unfolding as it should.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 8, 2003 Report Share Posted July 8, 2003 It's truly amazing, isn't it? You would think at least some of these people would at least be somewhat skeptical. U.S. equities up an absurd amount, USD up an even more absurd amount against many other currencies, and gold way down ... all in a few hours in the midst of the world's current overall economic environment. I sometimes just cannot believe how this goes on and on and on and so many don't get suspicious at all, not even just a wee little bit of suspicion. I can only think that the US action was mainly a short covering rally....I'm just lost for words for what's happening there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alceringa Posted July 8, 2003 Report Share Posted July 8, 2003 I can only think that the US action was mainly a short covering rally.... Possible, but not likely according to order flow from NYSE Marketrac- Spinchters Sell Short as % of total sell Today (July 7)-39.2% 30 Day Average-36.3% Same indicator for NYA Today-40.3% 30 Day-40.4% Seems the bears are still shorting with gusto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alceringa Posted July 8, 2003 Report Share Posted July 8, 2003 Yoo-hoo world markets Uncle Buck Spoo-Hoo's- Nasty- Globex Flash Quotes Link euroland Jo-burg Miners Here After Hours-USA AM Market Call By CNNMoney From Bloomberg 325AM Stool HQ Time U.S. Stocks Surge, Led by Computer-Related Companies; Microsoft Advances U.S. stocks surged, led by computer- related shares, after a Goldman, Sachs & Co. survey of corporate executives indicated a drop in technology spending is almost over. The Nasdaq Composite Index reached a 14-month high. European Stocks Decline, Paced by Shares of Deutsche Telekom and Publicis Asian Stocks Gain, Led by Computer-Related Shares; Tokyo Electron Rises Bloomberg BTW, for those that don't follow TEL much, it is a big player in the SOX business, chips and equipment. Not sure what % of total business, but in absolute dollars/yen it is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 8, 2003 Report Share Posted July 8, 2003 Possible, but not likely according to order flow from NYSE Marketrac- Puplava from http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm sez "Back at the casino stocks took off like a rocket ship ignited by powerful buying in the futures pit this morning." Mind you he's always saying that :wink2: Love that expanding formation on the USD chart you posted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted July 8, 2003 Report Share Posted July 8, 2003 The Aussie Dollar finally joined in on the selling to complete it's top. That was a breathtaking plunge I just rode down. :grin: Looking for one more bounce, and then the real selling should begin down under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted July 8, 2003 Report Share Posted July 8, 2003 Moanin' from A'dam. Been away for a couple of days but what a boner yesterday(in everything). It's all rigged,of course.Crapvision Europe wittering on this am about an IPO of bank Austria and about all the private equity funds who see the market now as their BIG chance to get out with an IPO.So,because the bonkers rule I suspect it's going up 'cos the bonkers will make it go up--it's their money too. I mean,isn't their action plan obvious.Everything in dire straits last year,bond spreads horrendous and stocks in the bin. Al starts pumping and driving bond yields down.Junk bonds soon become less junky as confidence grows. Then when confidence returns all the major US corporations start selling debt at the lowest rate in 50 years.Al has flooded the world with so many dollars the the Asians have to do something with all that reserve currency festering in the vaults. So,they buy the US debt and after all the market is rising and it seems less risky but to safeguard against a dollar fall they hedge.WRONG-the whole world does not want the USD to collapse,so it won't and in the short term all Euro/USD hedges get blown out by Al's boners. Now the final part of the plan is being put into operation.Get the market hot for IPO's so that the bonkers can make a quick buck and let their rich clients get some of their private equity back by distributing to the morons. Expect lots of talking up the market with regard to small companies-no debt,been doing well in the last 3 years,market with a real future,will do well in recession and boom times yada,yada,yada. Most interesting part is where the private equity cash goes after they've dumped even more worthless paper on the market.Follow the money-watch where the high-rollers play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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