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torah man

Mark To Market -- Thanksgiving Vacation

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You know in listening to Ass master and others there has been quite a conversion on the road to Damascus-which is fine with me - too many Bears spoil the broth! We are on the cusp of a huge DOWN move-very few Bears are in the market and a lot of would be Bears have folded their tents and left. Yep-I'll fade you Ass master-this is and was a wimpy little rally-yet it took out a lot of Bears who SHOULD know better-all the more for Mercy, Pile, Lightening, Aussie and Butt and I. Butt good on ya shorting MXIM-keep it on a short leash. Doc ranks rite up there with Walter Bressert on cycles. Yet a lot of you don't listen-PITY! Trade safe!

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The "R2D2" machinehead ikon was a custom masterwork of our very own Fauxcaster.

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when this rally finally begins its "correction" as so many out there will be calling it when it happens we're going to be laughing our asses off b/c its not going to be just a "correction" to an "on going 'new' bull market" but the next leg of collapse.

 

http://www.cross-currents.net/outlook.htm

 

http://www.cross-currents.net/weekly.htm

 

Can you say "lack up support" ?

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8 Week winning streak... Can they make it 9? Well they better make it infinity... The longer they float this mess the bigger the splat. Eventually they will run out of "free" money (individual investors/suckers) and the FED will have to buy it all and that will be spotted... And what are the chances of a rapid super dupa recovery in 2003? 0%.

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Guest AssMaster

In looking over the charts of the last few big rallies (and subsequent failures), it seems that the highest risk/reward opportunity to short the indeces is to wait for the price, 50 dma, and 200 dma to meet - then wait for price to fail backtest at ma50 when 50 dma below 200 dma, which usually happens well after (weeks/months) the top is in and then you have months to ride the downtrend to riches.

 

As Piledriver (or someone) said, 20% of stocks are rising even in a bear market. So instead of chasing particular hot stocks, I will look for low-risk opportunities to jump on stocks which are beginning trends up. And begin buying index leap puts if I can figure out how (just got approved for put/call buying yesterday).

 

Anyway, let them come to you. Don't chase rockets or try to catch them at the tip-top. Don't chase falling knives or try to catch them at the exact low.

 

Since I know you cannot wait to extract some coin on the short side, possible short candidates now include ASML, KLAC, LRCX, SIVB, TQNT, TSCM. Look 'em over and see what you think. B)

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Just wanna say hi :) , Dec 3rd or 4th and Dec 10th or 12th are inportant Fib dates, the next two weeks should be very interesting !!!!! Love you Guys keep up the good work!!!! Nice new board DOC.very easy to get around.

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AssMaster,

 

Options are great if you can figure out how to minimize commissions. The cheapest broker for options that I have found is here. At only $1 a contract for an unlimited number of contracts, I haven't found a broker that beats that price. Datek charges $1.25 per contract, but with also a $9.95 surcharge per trade added on. Optionexpress charges $1.50 per contract, but with a $14.95 minimum per trade.

 

To compare those 3, if you wanted to trade 20 contracts at 1.00 premium, you would pay: 20 x 1.00 x 1.00 = $20 per turn at interactivebrokers. At Datek, that same trade would cost 20 x 1.00 x 1.25 + 9.95 = $34.95 per turn. At Optionexpress, that trade would cost 20 x 1.00 x 1.50 = $30 per turn. So the full trade would cost you $40 at IB, $69.90 at Datek, and $60 at Optionexpress.

 

Since 20 x 1.00 x 100 shares per contract = $2000 invested, your commission percentages are: 40/2000 = 2% at IB, 69.90/2000 = 3.495% at Datek, and 60/2000 = 3% at optionexpress.

 

That doesn't seem like too much of a difference in commissions, but if you traded the .50 contracts with 40 contracts, total commissions would be 4% at IB, 5.99% at Datek, and 6% at optionexpress. Commissions will magnify the more trades you do.

 

Datek also limits you to a maximum 200 contracts per trade. No limit at IB or optionexpress.

 

Hope this helps. Just my opinion, by the way.

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