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Hey stoolies,


Go long now and YOU WILL be the last one to get on the bandwagon before the market makes a 180 degree-turn and heads south again. Option volatility indexes like the VIX are flashing signs of extreme complacency. That's the type of signal that often precedes market sell-offs. Kevin Duffy of Bearing Asset Management says that a recent Investors Intelligence poll shows that the percentage of bearish advisors has reached 24.7%, the lowest reading since the 23.2% of March 2000 ? the infamous date that marked the very top of the 1990s epic bull market. How about that?

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Guest AssMaster

Well, now we have bear capitulation by Steve Leuthold, who is - I believe - manager of the Grizzly Short fund. And in Barron's no less. Is that a sign of the top or what?


Barron's "A New Bull Market"


Why a money manager with a deep sense of history has now turned


An Interview With Steve Leuthold -- In a profession full of ranters

and ravers, he has long been the voice of reason in the investment

world. By arming himself with reams of historical market data,

examining the relationships between asset classes and carefully

tracking economic trends, Leuthold is able to present a take on the

markets that's difficult to match for its thoroughness and ability

to detect shifts in investment themes. He and his colleagues at

Leuthold Group, the research arm of institutional trading house

Weeden & Co. of Greenwich, Conn., publish their findings monthly in

the heavily subscribed Green Book, so called for the shade of its

cover but also, we imagine, for the assist it gives its readers in

making more of the green stuff.



"We have never seen a period like this where in the first year of an

economic expansion the market has just continued to go down as it

did until Oct. 9."



Somehow, beyond the facts and figures, the sense of humanity that

runs deep in Leuthold comes through in his work. What distinguishes

him, too, from the rest of the Wall Street crowd, is his insistence

on working on Main Street: Minneapolis in the winter and Maine's

Casco Bay in the summer.


Leuthold is extremely bullish now, although not as super bullish as

he was in 1982, at the start of the great run that ended two years

ago. To learn what he sees that the double-dippers don't, please

read on.


--Sandra Ward


I would post the full text, but don't want to offend Doc's intellectual property sensibilities. But he basically thinks financials and big caps are overvalued, and that telecomm has not fully completed it's debacle, but that small/mid cap growth is at pretty good valuations.


See the full article and interview in Barrons. Prepare to Fade Away. :P

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Guest hemroid2

the whole government manipulation thing adds a new element to things...wtf...do some firms get the sweatheart inside deals for the government orderflow...similarly do they know when to not expect the jam? is this efficient? Are people getting rich on inside information? gues it doesnt matter to me...just the idea makes me want to puke

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