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wndysrf

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Looks like a massive gap up on the open.

 

Where are those long positions recommended by Metamucil???

 

I'd better find a bunch, quick!!!

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Sigmond Friend, thanx FUR the learned/erudite reply.

 

At least Dines is entertaining, if SNOT original...

 

Well they're trying to destroy bearz globally. Half humanity, it seemz, is in quasi-hallucinatory mode.

 

Will FURm triumph over substance?

 

Still waiting to add to shorts (this sort of nonsense is why)

 

Wonder if Oy will change his tune...

 

oh. There's something in HRFF's head about Gene Inger's late mother. Seems if HRFF recalls rightly her birthday fell circa July 10 or so, and, back in the yearz when HRFF listened regularly to his hotline and or took his letter and or rapped w him, there wuz a bit of a joke about how the market regularly rallied up to her birthday then sold off.

 

Lettuce c, if that's the correct date, if it happenz again...

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What is your argument, That the COT doesn't work anymore?

 

Forget the mini's. Deal with the big contract only.

 

May I ask why ? Because it worked in the past ? What is the difference ?

 

Didn't some people discussed a while back that commercials are hiding their footsteps in the e-mini market ?

Yes, That is what the bears thought and look at the result. (I was one of them). That is why I say, Pay attention the Big contract only.

I argued that their position was neutral because of the mini's. When I say neutral I'm referring to the weekly change not the total. I find the change to be more important. I don't know on what basis one can just ignore the mini's as long as proper weighting is take into account.

That all said I have not found the COT valuable in 2003 and I follow it closely. Eventually it will give clues again.

 

Peace

Rich

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Guest AssMaster

Well...I have enough riverboat picks. Selling anything that moves up.

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Sigmond Friend, thanx FUR the learned/erudite reply.

 

At least Dines is entertaining, if SNOT original...

 

Well they're trying to destroy bearz globally. Half humanity, it seemz,  is in quasi-hallucinatory mode.

 

Will FURm triumph over substance?

 

Still waiting to add to shorts (this sort of nonsense is why)

 

Wonder if Oy will change his tune...

 

oh. There's something in HRFF's head about Gene Inger's late mother. Seems if HRFF recalls rightly her birthday fell circa July 10 or so, and, back in the yearz when HRFF listened regularly to his hotline and or took his letter and or rapped w him, there wuz a bit of a joke about how the market regularly rallied up to her birthday then sold off.

 

Lettuce c, if that's the correct date, if it happenz again...

Ehem. . . I'm curious. Did The General always report the day after his mother's birthday??

 

O tempores, o mores . . . .

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"I will say that it isn't out of the relm of posibility that the financial system could colapse in the next 11 months given the right circumstances but I highly doubt it. Our financial system is more then a bunch of Domino's all lined up ready to fall. Ask Gary North about Y2k."

 

The right circumstances...

 

"I don't quite buy into the theory that the consumer will not be able to borrow more and so the whole system implodes within the next 18months"

 

It's not about borrowing "more" it is about borrowing "enough"...

 

 

Can consumers borrow enough? I doubt it... In 7-11 months we will know for sure...

 

In Japan before the collapse the consumer could borrow more...the collapse happened when they couldn't borrow enough...

 

If the consumer can't borrow enough that is the circumstance which leads to collapse...That is the cause of the collapse of a debt backed system...

 

And now we mention Gary North...

 

"Our financial system is more then a bunch of Domino's all lined up ready to fall"

 

The financial system is a debt based ponzi scheme...It will grow as long as consumers create new debt in greater quantities than the previously created debt...If the consumer fails to do that the financial system is bunch of Domino's all lined up ready to fall and will begin to fall... Why have interest rates dropped an average of 83 basis points a year for the last 23 years? What is the reason? To increase demand for debt to create the volume needed to support the debt inflation which the system runs on...or the financial system will collapse like a bunch of Domino's due to debt deflation which is a dry up of liquidity...

 

If the lowering of interest rates to prevent collapse is not the reason for them being lowered for the past 23 years...what is the reason? To cause a collapse?

 

For the fun of it?

 

The circumstances leading to collapse get more right every day...

I guess it all depends on your definition of " Collapse" ? I didn't know Japan had collapsed yet. What exactly do you mean by collapse?

 

 

By the way, if those futures keep climbing (already up 1050)at this rate we will have a 40 point gap open on the Nasdaq. Jeeze, I love large Gap up opens close to the top of the trading range.

 

Quicktrade

"I guess it all depends on your definition of " Collapse" ? I didn't know Japan had collapsed yet. What exactly do you mean by collapse?"

 

Please don't play dumb...

 

I pass on the info and you can figure out what to do...You are the only one that can save you...I'm not going to hold your hand...

 

You have already stated that you don't believe in an impending collapse...

 

Why should I go into detail explaining something to you that you don't understand or believe in...Or think is possible...

 

Don't worry unless something happens to you, you will get front row seat in the classroom and be taught the hard way what a collapse is...

 

And then you will know exactly what I'm talking about... It will dawn on you eventually...

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"I will say that it isn't out of the relm of posibility that the financial system could colapse in the next 11 months given the right circumstances but I highly doubt it. Our financial system is more then a bunch of Domino's all lined up ready to fall. Ask Gary North about Y2k."

 

The right circumstances...

 

"I don't quite buy into the theory that the consumer will not be able to borrow more and so the whole system implodes within the next 18months"

 

It's not about borrowing "more" it is about borrowing "enough"...

 

 

Can consumers borrow enough? I doubt it... In 7-11 months we will know for sure...

 

In Japan before the collapse the consumer could borrow more...the collapse happened when they couldn't borrow enough...

 

If the consumer can't borrow enough that is the circumstance which leads to collapse...That is the cause of the collapse of a debt backed system...

 

And now we mention Gary North...

 

"Our financial system is more then a bunch of Domino's all lined up ready to fall"

 

The financial system is a debt based ponzi scheme...It will grow as long as consumers create new debt in greater quantities than the previously created debt...If the consumer fails to do that the financial system is bunch of Domino's all lined up ready to fall and will begin to fall... Why have interest rates dropped an average of 83 basis points a year for the last 23 years? What is the reason? To increase demand for debt to create the volume needed to support the debt inflation which the system runs on...or the financial system will collapse like a bunch of Domino's due to debt deflation which is a dry up of liquidity...

 

If the lowering of interest rates to prevent collapse is not the reason for them being lowered for the past 23 years...what is the reason? To cause a collapse?

 

For the fun of it?

 

The circumstances leading to collapse get more right every day...

Here's a thought exercise....money comes into creation via debt, as Hyper explains...most of that debt has some sort of collateral backing it up...in some cases it's a home or a building, a car, a business plan, etc. Credit cards are unsecured, of course, but that's usually just a fraction of the whole picture. The way the system is, every year more debt must be created than the previous year, forever...it's a mushroom cloud...OK...it's been working out just fine (more or less) since the end of WWII....BUTT...by this time the mushroom cloud is so broad, it takes one hell of a lot of additional debt to be created each year to keep the sucker growing...a REALLY BIG number...and that much debt requires lots of collateral to back it up. To say it differently, the system is starving for collateral right now, that's why the housing bubble is raging...housing (and housing inflation) is the "collateral of last resort" in our debt-backed system. Now, think about all the innovative new products that came to market in the decade of the 1990's: cell phones, PC's you could actually do something with, PDA's, Windows, Office Software, Internet/Broadband, yada yada, all of that business activity represented the collateral behind a ton of debt. Think also about how quickly all that technology was iterated on and perfected and cost-efficient-ized into really good, affordable products. Again, lots of collateral backing up lots of debt which backed up lots of business activity. So....where's all the frezied activity here in 2003? Yes, lots of houses are getting built, but I doubt that makes up the difference...I guess my point is, if the deal were working out properly, we should be in the midst of a wave of innovation in some field(s) that was even greater than the tech revolution of the 90's, because the mushroom cloud of debt (business activity) requires it....well, to my eye, it's not happening...housing is doing it's damndest to make up the difference, but it can't go it alone, some other new innovation needs to come to the rescue and fast, something that every household and every business just has to have, and will borrow lots of money to pay for...anyone have any candidates? Whatever it is it better get here soon. And even when it does, it will be competed and perfected and innovated down to near-commodity status in no time, just like in the 90's...remember the hordes of gen-x slackers coming out of the woodwork to code html for big bucks?...so, we'd quickly be back in our current fix once again, hoping and praying for the next miracle innovation to come along....

I don't understand ???? Why do we have to increase money creation now??? Don't we only have to service current debts in order to avoid a collapse??? I don't understand..... If the consumer services his debt and at the same time his business gets a little better and at the same time the costs and terms to borrow get cheaper and at the same time he has tightened his belt with cost cutting and at the same time the value of his assets become worth more and at the same time new technologies become available to him so he can be more efficient and at the same time the government is lowering his tax's and creating incentives for him to expand. Wouldn't you think the average american business man would expand??? Aren't we a country of optimistic gamblers.

 

I realize this may sound a little to optimistic for you but I do believe this has a real chance of happening. Lets not forget we are in the worst recession in at least 30 years probably 70 years. Your dam right the Fed cut rates to nothing and you can bet it will have an effect. The statistics are going to look pretty bad for a while but with all this liquidity, government stimulus,and market manipulation being thrown at this thing we could get a good burst of inflation over the next few years. Inflation will come with it's own set of problems but asset inflation could create the wealth effect all over again with wild speculation. Do I hear 1999 again?

 

I don't know but 11 months from now we could be in a whole nother ball game.

 

Quicktrade

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Hadjin - I've been asking myself the same thing for the past 12-18 months. It sure seems like real estate is in a bubble and that rising interest rate might be the pin to burst it. However, the stagflation in the late 70's had 16-20% mortgage rates and property values skyrocketed.

 

I think about selling my house, but rents in the same neighborhood are at least 25% more than the payment on my 15yr loan. I think we'll get inflation b4 deflation and think that hard assets stand the best chance of keeping up. Sure wish I felt confident about my opinion though :blink:

 

I'd be happy to hear other's opinions and rationale on this subject.

Guys,

 

Some of us must be old enough to remember that in the 70's there was a fundamental change in society that changed the homeowner metric forever. At that time, two people started working to make the mortgage payments - both the husband and wife in many cases. That is why we had such appreciation in RE in the 70's - two salaries. I do not see this significant increase in homeowner income happening this time around.

 

Bungster

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"I will say that it isn't out of the relm of posibility that the financial system could colapse in the next 11 months given the right circumstances but I highly doubt it. Our financial system is more then a bunch of Domino's all lined up ready to fall. Ask Gary North about Y2k."

 

The right circumstances...

 

"I don't quite buy into the theory that the consumer will not be able to borrow more and so the whole system implodes within the next 18months"

 

It's not about borrowing "more" it is about borrowing "enough"...

 

 

Can consumers borrow enough? I doubt it... In 7-11 months we will know for sure...

 

In Japan before the collapse the consumer could borrow more...the collapse happened when they couldn't borrow enough...

 

If the consumer can't borrow enough that is the circumstance which leads to collapse...That is the cause of the collapse of a debt backed system...

 

And now we mention Gary North...

 

"Our financial system is more then a bunch of Domino's all lined up ready to fall"

 

The financial system is a debt based ponzi scheme...It will grow as long as consumers create new debt in greater quantities than the previously created debt...If the consumer fails to do that the financial system is bunch of Domino's all lined up ready to fall and will begin to fall... Why have interest rates dropped an average of 83 basis points a year for the last 23 years? What is the reason? To increase demand for debt to create the volume needed to support the debt inflation which the system runs on...or the financial system will collapse like a bunch of Domino's due to debt deflation which is a dry up of liquidity...

 

If the lowering of interest rates to prevent collapse is not the reason for them being lowered for the past 23 years...what is the reason? To cause a collapse?

 

For the fun of it?

 

The circumstances leading to collapse get more right every day...

Here's a thought exercise....money comes into creation via debt, as Hyper explains...most of that debt has some sort of collateral backing it up...in some cases it's a home or a building, a car, a business plan, etc. Credit cards are unsecured, of course, but that's usually just a fraction of the whole picture. The way the system is, every year more debt must be created than the previous year, forever...it's a mushroom cloud...OK...it's been working out just fine (more or less) since the end of WWII....BUTT...by this time the mushroom cloud is so broad, it takes one hell of a lot of additional debt to be created each year to keep the sucker growing...a REALLY BIG number...and that much debt requires lots of collateral to back it up. To say it differently, the system is starving for collateral right now, that's why the housing bubble is raging...housing (and housing inflation) is the "collateral of last resort" in our debt-backed system. Now, think about all the innovative new products that came to market in the decade of the 1990's: cell phones, PC's you could actually do something with, PDA's, Windows, Office Software, Internet/Broadband, yada yada, all of that business activity represented the collateral behind a ton of debt. Think also about how quickly all that technology was iterated on and perfected and cost-efficient-ized into really good, affordable products. Again, lots of collateral backing up lots of debt which backed up lots of business activity. So....where's all the frezied activity here in 2003? Yes, lots of houses are getting built, but I doubt that makes up the difference...I guess my point is, if the deal were working out properly, we should be in the midst of a wave of innovation in some field(s) that was even greater than the tech revolution of the 90's, because the mushroom cloud of debt (business activity) requires it....well, to my eye, it's not happening...housing is doing it's damndest to make up the difference, but it can't go it alone, some other new innovation needs to come to the rescue and fast, something that every household and every business just has to have, and will borrow lots of money to pay for...anyone have any candidates? Whatever it is it better get here soon. And even when it does, it will be competed and perfected and innovated down to near-commodity status in no time, just like in the 90's...remember the hordes of gen-x slackers coming out of the woodwork to code html for big bucks?...so, we'd quickly be back in our current fix once again, hoping and praying for the next miracle innovation to come along....

I don't understand ???? Why do we have to increase money creation now??? Don't we only have to service current debts in order to avoid a collapse??? I don't understand..... If the consumer services his debt and at the same time his business gets a little better and at the same time the costs and terms to borrow get cheaper and at the same time he has tightened his belt with cost cutting and at the same time the value of his assets become worth more and at the same time new technologies become available to him so he can be more efficient and at the same time the government is lowering his tax's and creating incentives for him to expand. Wouldn't you think the average american business man would expand??? Aren't we a country of optimistic gamblers.

 

I realize this may sound a little to optimistic for you but I do believe this has a real chance of happening. Lets not forget we are in the worst recession in at least 30 years probably 70 years. Your dam right the Fed cut rates to nothing and you can bet it will have an effect. The statistics are going to look pretty bad for a while but with all this liquidity, government stimulus,and market manipulation being thrown at this thing we could get a good burst of inflation over the next few years. Inflation will come with it's own set of problems but asset inflation could create the wealth effect all over again with wild speculation. Do I hear 1999 again?

 

I don't know but 11 months from now we could be in a whole nother ball game.

 

Quicktrade

When a consumer borrows from a bank the bank creates it out of thin air but not the interest...

 

The only way to service the debt is to create more debt out of thin air with interest attached and the only way to service that interest payment is by creating more debt out of thin air with interest attached and the only way to service that interest payment is by creating more debt out of thin air with interest attached and the only way to service that interest payment is by creating more debt out of thin air with interest attached and the only way to service that interest payment is by creating more debt out of thin air with interest attached and the only way to service that interest payment is by creating more debt out of thin air with interest attached and the only way to service that interest payment is by creating more debt out of thin air with interest attached and the only way to service that interest payment is by creating more debt out of thin air with interest attached and the only way to service that interest payment is by creating more debt out of thin air with interest attached and the only way to service that interest payment is by creating more debt out of thin air with interest attached and the only way to service that interest payment is by creating more debt out of thin air with interest attached and the only way to service that interest payment is by creating more debt out of thin air with interest attached and the only way to service that interest payment is by creating more debt out of thin air with interest attached and the only way to service that interest payment is by creating more debt out of thin air with interest attached and the only way to service that interest payment is by creating more debt out of thin air with interest attached and the only way to service that interest payment is by creating more debt out of thin air with interest attached and the only way to service that interest payment is by creating more debt out of thin air with interest attached and the only way to service that interest payment is by creating more debt out of thin air with interest attached and the only way to service that interest payment is by creating more debt out of thin air with interest attached and the only way to service that interest payment is by creating more debt out of thin air with interest attached and the only way to service that interest payment is by creating more debt out of thin air with interest attached...Until the consumer has borrowed all he/she can borrow and then there is now no way for the interest to be serviced anymore and the whole process starts moving in reverse... Cascading defaults...

 

lowering rates is used to stop the cascade...

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Looks like the Monday sucker rally is in full force.....

 

......do YOU have a trading plan? :blink:

 

......or, more importantly, an EXIT plan? :blink:

 

 

......remember the infamous words of Dr. Stepan N. Stool:

 

 

"If you hold your dong too long..... it might fall off!" :lol: :lol: :lol:

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heckifHRFFcanrecall, Mousey!

 

HRFF is advanced in years and graying at the temples. He is afflicted by premature Alzheimers and selective hearing.

 

He hASSn't made the BIG 50, quite YET, however.

 

ass SNAGGLEPUSS? would say: "Beats ME, BubbaLouie!!!" lolol

 

The BARE remarked over on Wollie World a week or two ago, that now the REAL fight (FUR 1000) begins. Seems some talkin' head ced it this weekend re next (itSNOT yet midnight in theze here partz) week. They WANT to hold it there and they WANT to KEEP it there, BAD.

 

Will they get what they want?

 

Looks like HAYWIRE THEORY is beginnin' to put it's schnozzola under the tent in the Mideast. Will it do it about the same time in the financial markets?

 

HRFF ain't sure of much in these parlous times, butt he's fairly sure of one thing - this Administration has been lucky, so FUR. So, too, The Street. He suspects that luck will change - FUR the wurse - twixt now and the next election.

 

Too much, too soon, which, in HIND(_)_)sight (the best kind lolol) will be viewed ass TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE.

 

FUR now, it'z PAX AMERICANA.

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This may be considered blatantly political so delete away. Not being American, but just my opinion is that there is no fundamental difference in their approach to economics between dems and pubes. They both want to give people something for nothing. The pubes want deficit spending and unfunded tax cuts while increasing the size of government. The dems want to increase services (unfunded) which will increase the size of government. So what's the point in wondering if a Stoolie leans to the left or right if these are the choices? If I were a voter I could get  to choose between more money in my pocket but more debt and poorer services or less money in my pocket, more debt and poor service. Is there a third choice?

amen. the left/right debate for the most part is nonsense, and in a certain light can be viewed as another form of media-sanctioned legerdemain to keep the populace polarized and disenfranchised. this is the ongoing claim of the libertarian party, which usually comes in 4th in u.s. presidential elections.

 

after the 1992 elections a particularly large group of new congressmen and women came into office, and one of the first things this 'freshman class' did was to have a bipartisan meeting to discuss how best to tackle the country's ills and legislative roadblocks together. big dogs from both parties swooped down and said like f*cking hell you're going to do this. and that was the end of that.

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