coboy Posted July 6, 2003 Report Share Posted July 6, 2003 What is your argument, That the COT doesn't work anymore? Forget the mini's. Deal with the big contract only. May I ask why ? Because it worked in the past ? What is the difference ? Didn't some people discussed a while back that commercials are hiding their footsteps in the e-mini market ? Yes, That is what the bears thought and look at the result. (I was one of them). That is why I say, Pay attention the Big contract only. Sorry, I'm not convinced.. But if it's working for you, by all means you should use it.. On a different note, I want to ask you another thing just out of curiosity.. Why are you straddled ? Unless there is a volatility expansion seems to me it's very hard to make money and additionally there is time decay.. Am I missing anything ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted July 6, 2003 Report Share Posted July 6, 2003 It is depressing stuff...I went too far in my research... I can see your points about the bearish thoughts... I don't feel good after posting that drivel... I wish I had good news... As to what happens next week? I have no idea how much debt is really out there... The key is the second half recovery psychology...I've heard enough to come to the conclusion that that is the reality they need to happen... a waterfall decline in the markets won't help that reality to crystalize... short term it should work but unless a real recovery is in fact taking place a bloodbath is sure to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fukui-san Posted July 6, 2003 Report Share Posted July 6, 2003 Must be great to be a bureaucrat and move the goalpost any time you want . . . BOJ To Adopt New Method To Avoid Booking JGB Paper Losses The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Monday morning edition: Monday, July 7, 2003 TOKYO (Nikkei)--The Bank of Japan plans to change next fiscal year its accounting method for its holdings of Japanese government bonds in order to avoid booking paper losses when JGB prices fall. The BOJ's JGB holdings have soared to about 87 trillion yen due in part to its aggressive quantitative easing measures launched in March 2001. Under the current method, the central bank is required to book paper losses on these holdings if JGB prices drop below their purchase prices. The BOJ thinks that since it holds most of the JGBs until maturity, there is no great need to report paper losses every time they occur. Therefore, the central bank will introduce in fiscal 2004 the amortized cost method, under which the difference between the purchase price and the face value is amortized equally in each year until maturity. The BOJ decided to adopt this method at a policy board meeting in May. The upcoming accounting change has attracted a great deal of attention in the bond market because investors believe that not being forced to book paper losses every time the market plunges will make it easier for the central bank to buy more JGBs. This will make the bank that much more of an influential player in the fixed-income market. The accounting switch will allow the central bank to "bolster JGB purchases without being overly concerned about price fluctuations over the medium to long term," says a market economist at Daiwa Securities SMBC Co. Another speculator turns into a long term holder . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted July 7, 2003 Report Share Posted July 7, 2003 Most tedious, boring topic ever introduced on M2M: California politics. Sheesh. Can't wait 'til Doc gets back and cleans out the shitload of whining on this subject. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quicktrade Posted July 7, 2003 Report Share Posted July 7, 2003 This real estate discussion is especially interesting to me at this time.... I remember last summer when I sold my home,I thought prices would peak and did not plan to re-enter the housing market.(sold my 170k house for 280k).For some reason I changed my mind.When I moved to south jersey I bought again not thinking that I would have any appreciation for a long time...... Here we are 8 months from the closing date on my new home...and now I sold my 257k house for 340k in just 8 months( not sure how to figure out that % gain). So here I stand again in the same position(assuming my sale closes).what do I do?Buy again?,rent?.....I'm not so sure.The only thing I know is that prices in my area still lag much of nj by a wide margin.I don't know what is going to happen,things have gone into blowoff mode since the spring around here. I guess I have 3 choices...buy,rent or build on the land I just puchased a few weeks ago.I was convinced that we peaked last summer,now I feel the same way again.will I be right this time? I know there are people who would disagree with me but I would say keep buying. I think the realestate market is in a sweet spot. You can find good buys because people are struggling. Banks are offering excellent interest rates and terms. The Government allows you to write off most your payment against your income. As long as you are bargain hunting I think you could continue to buy and sell and make good money. I think we will continue to see low interest rates for possibly a few more years. Yes, I do believe they will continue to lower all the way to zero Fed funds rate. I think you should always consider your tax consequences before making any buy or sell. You will have to check with your CPA but I think you have a one time non taxable capital gain on a personal home of up to 600K ?. Also, you might look into building, Contractors have special capital gains tax incentives for building holding for two years and selling. You may be able to capitalize on them if you build. While some believe we are going into a deflationary spiral that will be financially fatal, I believe that the Fed will be able to put off the big one again. They will inflate us out of this slump. Meanwhile the current expansion of the money supply will continue to have an inflationary effect in the realestate values, esspecially in the residential housing market. It is my opinion we will see realestate values double or even tripple in value over the next decade. Staying out of realestate could cost you big. Being a little cautious is good but allowing the bearish view points to permeate your life will have a very unhealthy effect on your thinking and thus your pocket book. I believe, what you think is what you get. Think prosperously and be prosperous. If all hell breaks out and the financial system blows a rod it won't really matter whether you bought or rented both will have different difficulties. Keep the faith. Just my opinion. Quicktrade What do you think all the marketing is geared towards? All the media is geared to making you sign on the dotted line... Consumers create debt... house prices will remain high and inflate as long as more debt is created then previously created... Thats it For the past 23 years Interest rates have been continually dropped to increase debt inflation which is leading to price inflation... and prime rates can only go so low...Plus the key is that consumers can only borrow and service a finite amount of debt... Inflation will not last forever... are wages going up as fast as real estate prices? "I believe that the Fed will be able to put off the big one again..." A recession is the start of collapse... you lower interest rates to prevent collapse... The only way to fight debt deflation is with debt inflation... In 2000 the Fed funds rate was 6.5% now it is 1% that chop was the big one... There are no more big ones now... that was it... Now we are in cross our fingers mode... or Keep the faith and as long as there is an ample supply of morons to sign on the dotted line we will be prosperous... When rates rise prices for real estate will have to drop and refianancing will dry up... So you think if you have systematically made the consumer product called debt cheaper and cheaper for the past 23 years to increase volume that once it becomes more expensive the volume is going to increase? Sounds like the logic of the just think positive religion to me... No they will hold rates where they are...How do you get exponential debt inflation for the next 10 years if rates hold where they are, it is only a matter of time before demand drops...then how do you inflate debt when everyone is loaded up? So lets see here for the past 23 years rates have been systematically lowered to prevent the collapse of the system and you think that holding rates where they are will give us 10 more years? If you want 10 more years rates have to be lowered for 10 years.... from 89 to today which is 12 years rates have gone from 10% to 1% to provide the debt inflation which prevented the system collapsing...or keeping the faith... now we have to go 10 more years so what will the intrest rate be in 10 years if the keep the faith trend continues? at an average of 83 basis points a year drop the interest rates would be... -7.3% If you were a banker how exactally could you afford to eat if your profit at the end of the year was -7.3%? 0 prime rate = 0 profit How about the Bond market? Would you like a bond that pays you -7.3%? 97% of the money supply of the economy is debt created out of thin air with interest attached that is returning it into a bankers pocket or being used to create more debt... Is Al printing it? No consumers are borrowing it and servicing it. Every Friday of every week is payday... If not enough debt is being created to support the payroll of the workers... You either have paycuts or layoffs... Looks like that is the case...Unemployment is rising and high paying jobs are being replaced with low paying jobs...or no jobs... For the past 23 years lowering of interest rates was the cure for that... Rates have been slashed by 550 basis points so far with 100 left... But the pool of potential consumers is shrinking and or compensation is shrinking... And for the past 23 years rates didn't start rising until the trend in Unemploment reversed "significantly", consumer credit started sustainable exponential growth and profits became huge... None of those 3 things exist but mortgage rates are going up? Nothing to worry about... Just keep the faith that consumers will sacrifice themselves for the greater good... Mortgage rates better keep dropping or the faith will be shattered... Housing construction and refianancing must continue to grow exponentially or the faith will evaporate because that is the heart of the American dream... and since the lowering of rates is the only way to accomplish that faith dies at 0... how is the domestic Auto market doing at 0 profit? In a debt based consumer society previously created debt is the operating expenses and newly created debt is the profit... Once consumers consume all that they can consume profits vanish...It happened... and is still happening... It is only a matter of time... months at most... Enjoy the rip off while it lasts, because it won't last much longer... When everyone was saying 3 of 3 a year ago I was saying 24 months... Now it is down to 7-11 months...I'm just being realistic... Does this look realistic? Because to keep the faith this is what I have to believe in... I have no idea how long the party will last it surely will end badly but I do believe man is very resilient at problem solving and has the ability to stave off the end game much longer then 18 months. I don't quite buy into the theory that the consumer will not be able to borrow more and so the whole system implodes within the next 18months. Many things can be done besides lowering interest rates to induce buying or borrowing. I'm sure there are more but a few would be to loosen lending requirements, lengthen terms, give more tax credits, raise wages. Loosen trade restrictions in order to broaden your markets and export inflation. Create more dirivatives in order to control the imbalences. Invade a country in order to secure and stabelize our energy supply. More media spin, spin, spin. More government('s) intervention ect. ect. ect. Populations will continue to expand , new technologies will be developed. We are becoming a more productive society. The way things were will be no longer. Politicians and bankers will change laws in order to accomplish the task. Security systems, storage,wireless as well as many other excellent technologies in the internet, banking sectors, as well as many other sectors of our system are being developed as we speek that will allow for a much more efficient expanding system. We most certainly will transition into a comletely closed cashless sociaty at some point which will save money in fraud,policing,ect. ect. ect. Because the government will be able to track every penny they will be able to get a tax on every transaction and black markets will be no more, that will lead to lower tax's with more money for government services (keep all those demoocrats happy ). To be serious, I don't really know how it will all keep going for another decade or longer but when the whole bag of marbles is at stake you can bet that every move will be made in order to keep control of the system and the world. You can be sure the boys know the history on fractional reserve banking and most likely have been developing a plan for several decades if for nothing else but to buy them more time. I will say that it isn't out of the relm of posibility that the financial system could colapse in the next 11 months given the right circumstances but I highly doubt it. Our financial system is more then a bunch of Domino's all lined up ready to fall. Ask Gary North about Y2k. Just my opinion. Quicktrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain's Log Posted July 7, 2003 Report Share Posted July 7, 2003 Most tedious, boring topic ever introduced on M2M "I agree !"(to sound effect of me rantling my chains) Anothing thing. Will Stoolies pressing "quote" button, please edit the previous email to the point that they want to make. Much of the 26 pages here are just requotes and requotes squared. It is tedious reading and it takes up Doc's bandwidth making it slower for everyone else. 'nuff said. Let's me get back to my Franziskaner Hefeweisen. I have 3 1/2 hrs left of my weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dharmaeye Posted July 7, 2003 Report Share Posted July 7, 2003 Just got delivered. The set-up is in? www.wavespeak.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted July 7, 2003 Report Share Posted July 7, 2003 What is your argument, That the COT doesn't work anymore? Forget the mini's. Deal with the big contract only. May I ask why ? Because it worked in the past ? What is the difference ? Didn't some people discussed a while back that commercials are hiding their footsteps in the e-mini market ? Yes, That is what the bears thought and look at the result. (I was one of them). That is why I say, Pay attention the Big contract only. Sorry, I'm not convinced.. But if it's working for you, by all means you should use it.. On a different note, I want to ask you another thing just out of curiosity.. Why are you straddled ? Unless there is a volatility expansion seems to me it's very hard to make money and additionally there is time decay.. Am I missing anything ? At this time, My interpitation of the market is that we go up to sideways until mid-July and then going down hard into early- mid August. Becuase I don't know this will happen, I am straddled. If we do get to my targets in mid july, my calls will be up and I will think about adding to shorts or longs depending on the situation. Call me a reluctant realist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarBu Posted July 7, 2003 Report Share Posted July 7, 2003 Well, this weekend M2M title is: Mama-San Chao ?To succeed in the 21st Century, our nation must be prepared to adapt to changes in our economy?in how we work, where we work, and how we balance our professional and family lives.? ?Secretary of Labor Elaine L. Chao Regarding the June Unemployment Numbers, See what exactly she said: http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/opa/OPA2003368.htm Statement of Labor Secretary Elaine L. Chao On June Unemployment Numbers U.S. Secretary of Labor Elaine L. Chao issued the following statement on the June unemployment numbers released today: "While the unemployment rate is disappointing, it can be viewed as an indication of renewed confidence in the economy with the increased labor force participation rate. Over 600,000 Americans re-entered the labor force this month. In addition, we are encouraged by a steadily declining four-week moving average of unemployment insurance claims. If we look deeper at the unemployment number, we can see that there are new jobs being created in temporary help services, education and health care services, leisure and hospitality. For the fourth month in a row, construction continues to create a substantial number of new jobs. "Under the strong leadership of the President, The Jobs and Growth Act of 2003 was recently enacted. Its effects will be felt by America?s working families, seniors and small business owners later this month, as they begin receiving tax rebates and larger paychecks. As this stimulus builds momentum, we expect to see more new jobs created and more out of work Americans receiving a paycheck again." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted July 7, 2003 Report Share Posted July 7, 2003 dharmaeye all i find at the website is the last issue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dharmaeye Posted July 7, 2003 Report Share Posted July 7, 2003 Forgot www.wavespeak.com is mailed free and not put on his board for awhile. Members email me and I'll forward the PDF file for the first few stools. Anyway subscribe - ryan offers a good service and for free it can't be beaten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarBu Posted July 7, 2003 Report Share Posted July 7, 2003 Mathias Onischka top target NDX 1308, ........Looking out over the next 4-6 months, we should see values or around 950 or less on the NDX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sigmoid Friend Posted July 7, 2003 Report Share Posted July 7, 2003 It is depressing stuff...I went too far in my research... I can see your points about the bearish thoughts... I don't feel good after posting that drivel... I wish I had good news... As to what happens next week? I have no idea how much debt is really out there... The key is the second half recovery psychology...I've heard enough to come to the conclusion that that is the reality they need to happen... a waterfall decline in the markets won't help that reality to crystalize... short term it should work but unless a real recovery is in fact taking place a bloodbath is sure to show up. Most of the time I think Hyper is on the right track but tends to overstate ("awfulize") how bad things will get. However, the postings this weekend on the SoCal (Newport Beach, etc.) real estate market lead me to conclude that he may be right on all counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted July 7, 2003 Report Share Posted July 7, 2003 "I will say that it isn't out of the relm of posibility that the financial system could colapse in the next 11 months given the right circumstances but I highly doubt it. Our financial system is more then a bunch of Domino's all lined up ready to fall. Ask Gary North about Y2k." The right circumstances... "I don't quite buy into the theory that the consumer will not be able to borrow more and so the whole system implodes within the next 18months" It's not about borrowing "more" it is about borrowing "enough"... Can consumers borrow enough? I doubt it... In 7-11 months we will know for sure... In Japan before the collapse the consumer could borrow more...the collapse happened when they couldn't borrow enough... If the consumer can't borrow enough that is the circumstance which leads to collapse...That is the cause of the collapse of a debt backed system... And now we mention Gary North... "Our financial system is more then a bunch of Domino's all lined up ready to fall" The financial system is a debt based ponzi scheme...It will grow as long as consumers create new debt in greater quantities than the previously created debt...If the consumer fails to do that the financial system is bunch of Domino's all lined up ready to fall and will begin to fall... Why have interest rates dropped an average of 83 basis points a year for the last 23 years? What is the reason? To increase demand for debt to create the volume needed to support the debt inflation which the system runs on...or the financial system will collapse like a bunch of Domino's due to debt deflation which is a dry up of liquidity... If the lowering of interest rates to prevent collapse is not the reason for them being lowered for the past 23 years...what is the reason? To cause a collapse? For the fun of it? The circumstances leading to collapse get more right every day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted July 7, 2003 Report Share Posted July 7, 2003 I don't know if anyone posted Zoran's latest. http://www.safehaven.com/Editorials/gayer/...070603gayer.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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