Goldmember Posted July 6, 2003 Report Share Posted July 6, 2003 When the decline starts, it will be slow and unnoticable. Longs will realize that the decline is real after it is too late. Any sharp decline will be seized by the shorts as "the crash", and that's likely to be reversed with a Boner Blast the next trading day. Exactly what will occur, we've seen it time and time again. The sharp declines come at the very tail end of cycle down-phases, especially the 8-day and 13-day cycles....nice sharp gap down opens to freak everyone out and equal strength boner blasts to the up-side. Definately playable, one only has to make sure that it is the very end of a particular cycle's downphase, and further downside can then be ruled out. In a downtrend each of those boner blasts results in lower highs and susequent lower lows as the downtrend follows its course. We are in that downtrend now... ....there is nothing better than Doc's Anals of Stock Proctology and Stooltrading to pinpoint those moments of lucidity. Of course, Doc will not go dong, I would imagine he just steps aside, and reloads at the subsequent lower high, for which a cmap number will be on the chart, but his analysis of where any particular down-phase will end is unbeatable. One only has to read and interpret those signals accordingly. Follow the cmaps...those numbers are freakin voodoo..... ....boner blasts are fun, quick easy money, if one has the overall picture sorted out and mapped in advance. ...all the best to all riverboaters ....ain't it fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted July 6, 2003 Report Share Posted July 6, 2003 Thor I suppose the 3rd option would be revolution. But because history so often repeats itself, we would ultimately end up with the same scenario. Windy, Carver seems to be typical of the "wall street advisor" who makes his money off his advice, not his trading. Let's face it, if these guys KNEW how to time and trade, they'd be living on an island somewhere. Not writing newsletters or websites. They are writers that teach people how to gamble and lose. Headley's direct words to me in a phone conversation after I asked him "what's up? why do we keep losing? he said, Tony, I'm not living on an island somewhere". In retrospect, I should've pulled all my money out of equities at that point and called it a day. :cry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted July 6, 2003 Report Share Posted July 6, 2003 whoa dude! http://www.martincapital.com/chart-pgs/CH_sent.HTM This has never led to additional strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted July 6, 2003 Report Share Posted July 6, 2003 GM, yes I use "boner blasts" during IT downtrends to load short! They provide nice low-risk entry points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crapax Posted July 6, 2003 Report Share Posted July 6, 2003 With all the theory about the least dollars in options profits going to option buyers blown out of the water in the last few months, has anybody reached any kind of conclusion about MaxPain? Has it totally lost its relevance? Anyone using that as an indicator these days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted July 6, 2003 Report Share Posted July 6, 2003 In future I will ONLY short boner blasts. Shorted Thursdays and the one at the high. Most other shorts initiated this year have been for about break even. Now the trick for me is to train myself to buy the gap downs and stalemate lows. Twice I've exitted all my shorts this year at almost the precise ST or IT bottom. I never once entered a dong. Am I becoming Doc II? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted July 6, 2003 Report Share Posted July 6, 2003 I have seen a correlation between Max Pain and how much liquidity is sloshing around the system. Low liquidity would result in Max Pain having more relevance, as in most of 2002, and tidal waves of cash would cause Max Pain to be almost irrelevant. I would guess that Max Pain will have an increased effect as this tsunami of speculative fever wanes....already in progress.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted July 6, 2003 Report Share Posted July 6, 2003 With all the theory about the least dollars in options profits going to option buyers blown out of the water in the last few months, has anybody reached any kind of conclusion about MaxPain?Has it totally lost its relevance? Anyone using that as an indicator these days? I no longer watch it with any regularity- many consecutive misses, particularly on QQQ, back when I was trading it regularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 6, 2003 Report Share Posted July 6, 2003 SIRI - NASDAQ most active Boner Alert!!! Money For Nothin' - Chicks For Free Note that on Thursday during a half day of trading when the market was selling off, da boys were gaming the piss out of SIRI to the tune of 48 million shares. Ignore the SIRI chart and the following press release at your own peril (disclosure...yes I own it). SIRI press release from Thursday: SIRIUS [sIRI] President and CEO to Open The NASDAQ Stock Market Monday, July 7, 2003 at 9:30 a.m. Joseph P. Clayton, President and Chief Executive Officer, SIRIUS (SIRI) will join NASDAQ host Robert Greifeld, President and Chief Executive Officer, The NASDAQ Stock Market, to preside over the Market Open. Why: NASDAQ Stock Market proudly welcomes SIRIUS [sIRI] to the Market Open. SIRIUS provides an unparalleled selection of commercial-free music in virtually every genre, plus a full range of sports, news and entertainment. SIRIUS has agreements to install AM/FM/SAT radios in Ford, Chrysler, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Jaguar, Volvo, Mazda, Land Rover, Dodge, Jeep, MINI, Volkswagen, Audi, Nissan, and Infiniti vehicles, along with trucks from Freightliner and Sterling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted July 6, 2003 Report Share Posted July 6, 2003 SIRI - NASDAQ most active Boner Alert!!!Money For Nothin' - Chicks For Free Note that on Thursday during a half day of trading when the market was selling off, da boys were gaming the piss out of SIRI to the tune of 48 million shares. Ignore the SIRI chart and the following press release at your own peril (disclosure...yes I own it). SIRI press release from Thursday: SIRIUS [sIRI] President and CEO to Open The NASDAQ Stock Market Monday, July 7, 2003 at 9:30 a.m. Joseph P. Clayton, President and Chief Executive Officer, SIRIUS (SIRI) will join NASDAQ host Robert Greifeld, President and Chief Executive Officer, The NASDAQ Stock Market, to preside over the Market Open. Why: NASDAQ Stock Market proudly welcomes SIRIUS [sIRI] to the Market Open. SIRIUS provides an unparalleled selection of commercial-free music in virtually every genre, plus a full range of sports, news and entertainment. SIRIUS has agreements to install AM/FM/SAT radios in Ford, Chrysler, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Jaguar, Volvo, Mazda, Land Rover, Dodge, Jeep, MINI, Volkswagen, Audi, Nissan, and Infiniti vehicles, along with trucks from Freightliner and Sterling. ....ooooh, nice! Events like that are a short sellers wet dream! Let all the suckers pile in in the morning and then SELL THEIR ASSES HARD down the river of wet dreams. Monday's close for sure! Haven't looked at a chart of that one, but, now I think I will... ...stay tuned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sigmoid Friend Posted July 6, 2003 Report Share Posted July 6, 2003 Dines has this marvelous saying, maybe HRFF can find it, something to the effect that if you're not liberal when you're 25 there's something wrong with you and if you're not a conservative by the time you're 45 you ought to have your head examined. Dines is in a long line of people who have ripped off the idea behind this quote. "An orphan quote [unattributed quote in search of a home] sometimes attributed to Georges Clemenceau is: Any man who is not a socialist at age 20 has no heart. Any man who is still a socialist at age 40 has no head. The most likely reason is that Bennet Cerf once reported Clemenceau's response to a visitor's alarm about his son being a communist: If he had not become a Communist at 22, I would have disowned him. If he is still a Communist at 30, I will do it then. George Seldes later quoted Lloyd George as having said: A young man who isn't a socialist hasn't got a heart; an old man who is a socialist hasn't got a head. The earliest known version of this observation is attributed to mid-nineteenth century historian and statesman Fran?ois Guizot: Not to be a republican at 20 is proof of want of heart; to be one at 30 is proof of want of head. Variations on this theme were later attributed to Disraeli, Shaw, Churchill, and Bertrand Russell." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crapax Posted July 6, 2003 Report Share Posted July 6, 2003 Goldmember Posted on Jul 6 2003, 12:29 PM-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I have seen a correlation between Max Pain and how much liquidity is sloshing around the system. Low liquidity would result in Max Pain having more relevance, as in most of 2002, and tidal waves of cash would cause Max Pain to be almost irrelevant. I would guess that Max Pain will have an increased effect as this tsunami of speculative fever wanes....already in progress.... Exactly what I was thinking too, though no backtesting has been done (yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coboy Posted July 6, 2003 Report Share Posted July 6, 2003 Commercial hedgers : Companies that Take futures positions in commodities so that they can Guarantee prices at which they will Buy raw materials or Sell their products. "Commercial Hedgers hold a significant informational edge over other traders as far as fundamental supply-and-demand statistics are concerned. They tend to be early, but they are usually right on the long run, quite contrary to the small traders.." As for the commodities, it makes sense that hedgers have an inside information about the supply-demand equilibrium, but for stock indexes how can that be ? They're hedgers, so doesn't it mean they have a lot stock right now if they're short futures ? What if they're buying stocks and selling futures to keep prices in check ! (I know, it's DEFINITELY not a possibility, since it doesn't sound bearish ) How do you think big brokers execute big orders ? They sell futures to suppress prices temporarily until they're finished with their buying, then cover their short contracts.. There are no shortcuts in this business, no holy grails.. (except some waves, some planetary alignments, some Mr. Big commandments...etc ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted July 6, 2003 Report Share Posted July 6, 2003 The property tax element is probably the biggest single thing to consider from here forward. ?The state/local governments are going to come after property holders to solve all of their budget deficit issues. ?If people are already leveraged to the hilt, unable to even afford furniture for the new monster home they've "invested in" - and then their taxes double, what will happen? ?Think about it real hard...and imagine what would happen if property taxes double AND mortgage interest rates rise. ?Price appreciation will stop in its tracks. ?Why? ?Because a whole shyte-load of people will come to realize that not only can they not afford to carry the monster house they just bought, but that renting is the only viable option for many, to get out of the tax man's cross-hairs. I think your spot on Plunger. The Gov (pigs @ the trough) are gonna come after homeowners big time. But the key thing, IMO, is the increasing rate of mortgage defaults. In NJ, capital gains taxes on RE are the same as for federal purposes - so most don't pay any CG tax on their primary residence. However sleath taxes are on the rise after the recent budget crisis. An average home in NJ will now pay about a $2000 or so realty transfer tax when sold, plus state contributions to local governments have been cut way back - which will increase local property taxes. I envision Calif. making similar moves of much greater magnitude. RE from here out will have to overcome stagnant job markets and higher property taxes - and probably higher interest rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 6, 2003 Report Share Posted July 6, 2003 SIRI - NASDAQ most active Boner Alert!!!Money For Nothin' - Chicks For Free Note that on Thursday during a half day of trading when the market was selling off, da boys were gaming the piss out of SIRI to the tune of 48 million shares. Ignore the SIRI chart and the following press release at your own peril (disclosure...yes I own it). SIRI press release from Thursday: SIRIUS [sIRI] President and CEO to Open The NASDAQ Stock Market Monday, July 7, 2003 at 9:30 a.m. Joseph P. Clayton, President and Chief Executive Officer, SIRIUS (SIRI) will join NASDAQ host Robert Greifeld, President and Chief Executive Officer, The NASDAQ Stock Market, to preside over the Market Open. Why: NASDAQ Stock Market proudly welcomes SIRIUS [sIRI] to the Market Open. SIRIUS provides an unparalleled selection of commercial-free music in virtually every genre, plus a full range of sports, news and entertainment. SIRIUS has agreements to install AM/FM/SAT radios in Ford, Chrysler, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Jaguar, Volvo, Mazda, Land Rover, Dodge, Jeep, MINI, Volkswagen, Audi, Nissan, and Infiniti vehicles, along with trucks from Freightliner and Sterling. ....ooooh, nice! Events like that are a short sellers wet dream! Let all the suckers pile in in the morning and then SELL THEIR ASSES HARD down the river of wet dreams. Monday's close for sure! Haven't looked at a chart of that one, but, now I think I will... ...stay tuned... Goldmember: If you have a way by which to short a stock that's trading for less than $2 - by all means short SIRI. Plunger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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