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Closing Out The First Half . . .


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It really is a sad , sad tale. A group of self serving morons, desperately throwing hail mary's in order to save their own skin. WHy can't we have the neccesary liquidation ? Why are they wasting all these resources in a battle that they can not possibly win?

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You've said a mouthful there but I'm not sure I understand your point. I have rectified Arnold's recent commentaries by saying that due to his business interests (radio advertising and mortgage lending) he MUST maintain a longterm bullish viewpoint, no matter what he really thinks (which I have no idea what his true longterm viewpoint really is). Therefore Roger is really not IMO anything approaching an independent voice, in spite of how refreshing he intially seems. I will keep listening to him, however, as it is a good "workout" for keeping my own views in shape.

understood. good point.

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The trading range worked in Japan because they were the number 2 economy and benifited from the recovery of the US economy in 93... when the number 1 economy cratered in 2000 the number 2 followed... credit has allowed us to borrow time to live nothing more... Either the number 1 economy recovers it's ability to exponentally inflate debt or it doesn't... All the signs are pointing to "doesn't" which will make a multi year trading range impossible to maintain...7-11 months left in the game maximum...

Japan also had and still has a trading surplus while we are seriously in the red. Japanese have had and have high savings rates to hold them over, we spend all we can. IMO the USA is closer to an Argentina event then the Japanese model. All that is holding us up is the housing/refi craze. That it not going to last another year. Witness the PMI announcement last week. Buddies in the mortage area have told me insurance for those putting down less then 20% has been rising all year. There is trouble in the high end of the market in many areas. I'm with Hyper..12 months max.

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The trading range worked in Japan because they were the number 2 economy and benifited from the recovery of the US economy in 93... when the number 1 economy cratered in 2000 the number 2 followed... credit has allowed us to borrow time to live nothing more... Either the number 1 economy recovers it's ability to exponentally inflate debt or it doesn't... All the signs are pointing to "doesn't" which will make a multi year trading range impossible to maintain...7-11 months left in the game maximum...

...and honestly I no longer see why that scenario is inconsistent with Dow 10K. They'll just keep jamming the markets with funny money to keep up appearances even as the wheels fall off the economy. The only story I believe in is that the dollar is toilet paper.

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It really is a sad , sad tale. A group of self serving morons, desperately throwing hail mary's in order to save their own skin. WHy can't we have the neccesary liquidation ? Why are they wasting all these resources in a battle that they can not possibly win?

OPM

 

As long as dopey investors keep plowing money into 401K plans and IRA's there will be plenty-o funny money to play with.

 

One day they'll wake up and game over.

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Looks like it's time.

I'm short NQ 11.50

Just back from my evening meal - very nice it was too!!

 

Gruff - couldn't have said it better myself. If I was not short already, I would be doing so now. Whatever this rally was - couldn't get to HOD, downtrend intact.

Should be confirmed in next 30 mins....

 

Just imagine if you went long when the spoos hit 1015 - you'd be sh1tting bricks now!!!

 

Mark

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