Guest Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 Last day of the financial year and the market is quietly well behaved. So far a bias to the downside with All Ords -5.5, not complaining .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alceringa Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 I was travelling and am just catching up on my reading. Perhaps Alan Newman's most recent public commentary has already been seen by the Stoolies. In any case here it is- "Was June 18th an Emotional Climax?" ..........The recent phase has been extended far beyond anything we have seen before and confirms the grossly overt optimism seen elsewhere.....In the current phase, it appears that so many climbed aboard so quickly that the potential pool of buyers has been greatly reduced......(This) ninth sell signal comes after three solid weeks of extreme optimism........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 Plutocracy Not Conspiracy Subscribers to and proponents of conspiracy theory(s) generally view the current social situation the way they do because they understand history through a different framework than that currently in vogue amongst academia. Academia currently believes in, almost religiously, a view that history unfolds as a result of large currents of social forces, with a sort of life of their own, that are way bigger than any one actor. Without fleshing this out further right now, it is very Marxian and smacks of pseudoscience to me. Persons who see conspiracies, and the big conspiracy expose the absurdity of academia by pointing out that only human beings create history, by definition, and just exactly what is flowing in this "social current" anyway? At the same time, proponents of the conspiratorial (also called the personal) theory of history often completely neglect the social fabric that actors act within. Nobody ever does anything in isolation, and so any actor recalled by history had to adapt, and to a large extent, the attitudes, political and economic structures, and the doings of others at his or her time. I see something in between, which for now I call the scam theory of history. Heretofor and up through the present, almost all individuals would rather get by easy and at the same time have lived and live in a social fabric that is very screwed up. Individuals by and large simply attempt to "play the system" to get as much as possible for as little effort as possible. The difference between the very ambitious, who are recalled by history, and the rest of us is the breadth and scope of the "playing" accomplished. The result is the most ambitious and successful players (i.e. scam artists) achieve ruling class status, how ever this is defined in each society, and once there have some ability to control the social fabric in which they must operate to maintain, and further enhance, their "success." History shows that in the arrogance such people develop, they greatly overestimate their ability to truly and permanently manipulate things. The result of the above is NOT government reflecting the will and choice of the subject people, or any type of government that really matches up with, or is justified, by any kind of political theory. At the same time, it is NOT a stable, perfectly hidden behind the scenes government-by-conspiracy that can stay in total power for century after century. Real honest to goodness conspiracies invariably get ratted out very quickly. Instead, we get plutocracy (i.e. de facto aristocracy, without title, and usually denied altogether). In the Marxian sense, each plutocrat does have very similar interests and will act on those interests. This gives the appearance of collusion, or conspiracy, even though no agreed-upon conspiracy exists. This is actually much, much more effective at maintaining and carrying out all the bullshit that goes on in high places that appears conspiratorial; there is nothing to rat out and much less to get caught at. Still, when things get dicey (i.e. credit bubble end game), it's each plutocrat for himself/herself. One will backstab another in a heartbeat in a threatening situation. We're going to see a lot of this when things start to really falter and denial no longer is possible. A good example is occurring right now. Even the most mainstream press is beginning to slam Alan Greasepan for his ineffective rate cuts, or at least churn out articles with a very uncharacteristic negative and critical tone. I have never seen anything like this since Greasepan has been in. We all know all the media is now effectively owned by a small group of plutocrats, who are in the same do or die together boat as the rest. However, they can still smell the wind broken by their sleeping (though now fitfully) consumer masses. The media, even crapvision, should get interesting as the sheep get even more nervous, and the plutocrats who hold their positions via the media go more and more into "looking out for number one" mode. I still believe Al and his boys made an all out attempt to get immediate "results" from the last one he cut in the equity markets, simply for psychological reasons. On Thursday, the equity indices printed two clear-cut, and predictable, boners on the way to the inevitable up day. Problem is, the markets gave it all back, and then some, on Friday. Al built up a lot of ammo before his announcement. I hope he has spent most of it and just got out done by an exidus tidal wave. For the sake of frustrated Stoolies in the equity markets and a little justice, tomorrow: Dow -500 Crap -120 Ass&Pee -100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 After switching from the hourly fit, which had more resolution than needed and was too time consuming for me to do, I find the daily data fit doesn't have enough resolution. In my short, hold-for-hours time-frame, flucuations that are important to my trading don't really show up on the daily graph. So back to the drawing board. I found that by using 3-hour data points, I can replicate what the mktcycles.com group does for their Dow Jokes hourly fit, using the same number of data points and giving the same resolution. After watching this for a while, I have noticed they can always nicely fit either the 13-day cycle or the 8-day cycle on a background cycle and trend. I have replicated this using a linear term plus 21-day cycle plus either 8-day or 13-day, depending on the pair and price action over the last 10 days. So far, this has worked out very nicely, at least on the fit. The graphs nicely resolve good scalps for an approximately 12 hour holding time. Because of my job, I find I cannot wait around for perfect setups. I don't get enough sleep and start feeling burnt out. I have found, though, that just OK setups that are quasi-hedged have worked out. One of the pairs nets more than the other loses. I require each to be favored on its own based on its own price and cycles, and if two meet this and oppose each such to somewhat hedge, I go for it. I found two of them tonight, that should clarify what I'm getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 The first of these is EUR/JPY and EUR/USD. EUR/JPY has a price below an upwardly curving fit, and so is a potential long. EUR/USD is set up just the opposite, and so is a potential short. I interpret JPY as quasi-pegged to USD, thanks to BoJ/Greasepan manipulation. If things stay like normal, irrespective of the cycles or direction, should the Bonar get another pop, or return to its thrashing, in a sudden manner, the EUR/JPY pair will be affected to some extent and in the same direction as EUR/USD. I have good odds of making out OK either way, as long as the move is bigger than my 45 pip/lot stop. First the EUR/JPY graph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 ... and now EUR/USD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 The other pair of pairs is EUR/GBP and GBP/USD. One is short and the other long, so I am not hedging GBP (short GBP in both cases). Again, what I am quasi-hedging, or quasi-straddling, is the relative movement of EUR versus USD. The EUR/GBP chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 While long EUR/GBP, I'm short GBP/USD. The GBP/USD graph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 It turned out to be quite a bearish day for us. All Ords started a series of lower highs/lower lows and finally sold off rapidly into close finishing -19.1 (-0.6%). Being as its June 30 I don't want to read too much into it but I do feel hopefully bearish. Rang up broker to buy a BHP put but he was out of the office and its messy dealing with anyone else. Tomorrow is another day and I might find some more on tonight's charts. Quite a bit of red throughout Asia. I'll miss the European open as I have to go out but wouldn't be surprised to see a similar colour there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 Today spoon, Joke and nasty will go above the Friday high. Click Here For charts in Stool waves Two scenarios for nasty, one up then down next one have more upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alceringa Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 Yoo-hoo world markets Uncle Buck Spoo-Hoo's- Nasty- Globex Flash Quotes Link euroland Jo-burg Miners Here After Hours-USA AM Market Call By CNNMoney From Bloomberg 3AM Stool HQ Time Topix Has Best Quarter in Four Years, Led by NEC; South Korean Shares Drop Japan's Topix index rose, completing its best quarter in four years. Computer chipmakers such as NEC Corp. climbed after an industry report showed that the nation had the fastest growth in semiconductor sales in the world last month. Japan's Bonds Sink, Extending Two-Week Slide, on Speculation Banks Selling European Manufacturing and Services Probably Contracted at a Slower PaceBloomberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted June 30, 2003 Report Share Posted June 30, 2003 Moanin' from A'dam. Markets in Euroland just opened down--but in the usual wish-washy way.The AEX closed on Friday with 2% plus,so it was to be expected when the US markets closed down. This is just soooooo boring-seems like a 10 point range.In April we hit 295 with the afterburners on from the March lows and since then been goin' nowhere.Huge amounts of options open-interest at the 320 level in calls and 290 in the puts.Anyway if this POS does go under 280 again and not recover,then I think you can say bye-bye to a lot pensions. Mumblings on Crapvision about German fiscal stimulus being brought forward and planned IGMetal strike has collapsed--supposed to be good for a positive opening today but wasn't!! One of the Crapvision talking heads saying that all the funds and hedgehogs are doing right now is sitting on their ass ets 'cos no-one really thinks that the rally can continue.They're playing the research game ie trading the "research" reports on stocks that warn,beat by a farthing etc. There's apparently no new money coming into the market but little is leaving it either. As I write,the red has disappeared from the screens all over Europe.DAX is even (nearly) 1% in the green.Amazing, maybe Crapvision got it right after all! If our little turdpile can hold 295 for a while longer then it should provide relatively good support,until,of couse,it doesn't.Just wonder if the Bradley turn does have predictive value in the coming week-we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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