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So, Where's the Beef?

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You guys see the blip on Crapvision about mortgage defaults afterhours? Maybe Arch is right and we are on the verge of a housing collapse.


Question: If the economy does not re-inflate, what will happen to Gold and the miners?


Disclosure, I am long 130,000 shares CALVF between .17 and .19

13,000 shares BGO @ 1.05- 1.10

12,000 shares DROOY @ 2.30

9,500 shares VGZ @ 3.20


Should I start to pare back? :(


Would appreciate your expertise. TIA

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Hello Riverboaters:


Sorry I was unable to stick around this afternoon.


Busy at the coin shop late today, trading Promise Ticket profits for more yellow metal. Thank you, VTSS, PMCS, JCOM, etc. for the Riverboating Profits this week.


Unfortunately my biotech longs are looking sick, pretty close to suffering a round trip on this group.


Round tripped on energy stocks this week, they went nowhere.


Opened trial shorts on MSFT and INTC, just in case of a freefall.


Note the huge selling volume on the borkers yesterday. Equal volume came in today on the same group, yet they couldn't move the stocks.


Anyone spell DISTRIBUTION??


Anybody watching the JCB bond market? Looks like a virtual collapse in the making.


Anybody watching KB Home?? Karatz on Crapvision this morning. Stock promptly TANKS on RECORD VOLUME, surpassing the high volume buying surges from last week.


What does the market know? Why the sudden panic out of bonds and homebuilders?


Who is supporting Uncle Buck? Lance Lewis says lots of HedgeHogs are now aggressively short gold and gold stocks to "play" the dollar bounce.


What happens if the dollar bounces but gold refuses to collapse?


There you have it. The catalyst. The mega short squeeze to catapult gold over $370 and the push on the HUI over 155 for good.


Gold shorts, see ya later!!!


Some of the smarter Clearstation Riverboaters are fading the FOMC and EOM jam jobs which are so widely anticipated. Put/call ratio closed at an all time low today.


Seems like everybody is already loaded up for the FOMC/EOM spike play.


Buy the rumor, buy the news, right?


Who knows, it worked for the War Rally.


This pervert market might actually rally on the Al Green Meeting and the Quarter End Markup Party.


So, other than my gold and silver longs, I'm pretty much straddled, but with a slight long bias.


We'll have to see what happens on Monday. Yet another "up" day on the open? Again??

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Not to rain on the parade here. Not my intention. I hope the market rolls over and dies as I do believe what's the inevitable. But I still got the weird feeling that people are getting excited and jumping the gun too early. Technicals might be rolling over but I remember I saw them turn back up and keep going in the past two months.


Sure we might be at the real thing this time. But I took a look at the short interests on some of the indices, I have to say that bears have barely given up, and there might be some further short squeezes. Mark's parabolic move is still not out of the question:


(As of June 13th)

QQQ: Short interest --- 223 mm; Days to cover --- 2.65

SPY: Short interest --- 84 mm; Days to cover --- 1.91

DIA: Short interest --- 21 mm; Days to cover --- 2.52


(As of May 15th)

QQQ: Short interest --- 201 mm; Days to cover --- 2.91

SPY: Short interest --- 74 mm; Days to cover --- 1.69

DIA: Short interest --- 19 mm; Days to cover --- 2.21


From May 15th to June 13th:

Dow: +4.6%, DIA Short Interest: +10.5%

S&P: +4.3%, SPY Short Interest: +13.5%

Naz: +4.8%, QQQ Short Interest: +10.9%


Bears actually RAISED their bets as the market rallied. If this should be interpreted as a contrarian indicator, I would suspect the rally is NOT over.


Hey, don't pay attention to me. If I get a convincing counter-argument, I'd be happy to ride along and ride this POS to the ground! :grin:


All the best


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Every where I look I see impulsive to the downside. I expect a small bounce on monday and for the downside to continue at least until the 980-970 area before a pause.


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Just listening to Creamer now, who professed he's not the least bit interested in MSFT stock here. I remember him claiming that when it was at 54 (presplit) that if it dropped to 51 he'd be buying it with both fists. :blink: Should be interesting to hear what George Washington and guests have to say!

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Habits- re GOLD- best corollary I can give you is in 29 the King of miners was Homestake trading 20 odd dollars from 29 to late 1931 it went down to 4 bucks and in 1932 at the depths surged to $144.- a share that was at the time deflation really bit. Jerry- the p/c ratio as Mark just noted closed at an alltime, alltime LOW-forget days to cover calls on both equity only and the overall ratio Mark cited are at record lows where calls across the board far, far outweigh puts. If the ratio turns up Monday as i expect lights out. END- my friend with futures closing at a huge discount to cash there may well be no bounce Monday but rather a waterfall sell-off. Trade Safe! p.s. Jerry-check out cboe.com at the home page click statistics and you can scroll thru all the indexes and see why the rato is at an all time low.

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Weak End Anals 6/20/03


In your Friday Nite Quickie Edition of your Weak End Anals, Doc reviews the usual market charts, plus gives an extended sentiment review. It's bad, very bad.


The long term charts and outlooks will be updated Saturday.


Doc will be interviewed by Ike Iossif on Marketviews.tv Saturday. Please tune in.

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Windy asks, "What happens if the dollar bounces but gold fails to collapse?" Roger the Artful Dodger mentioned this on his show today. Although the dollar may rise relative to another currency, that doesn't mean it's getting stronger in an innate sense. If the U.S. prints 100% more dollars and the other countries all print 200% more, the dollar "gets stronger" but that is no reason for gold to decline; to the contrary, the price of gold should double in U.S. dollars.

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Okay, I've got my money sitting in my brokerage account. I was going to buy into GLD but it's not trading yet and, according to Fleck, it will take a couple more months.


Is next week a good time to add to my BEARX or should I wait for Fleck's "failing rally" to confirm the downtrend?

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