Guest Posted June 18, 2003 Report Share Posted June 18, 2003 Aha, we have a red one so far today...will it last? Probably just a pullback but enough to create some interest in the charts maybe. K Wave Rider did an excellent post yesterday in M2M covering many thoughts but one of them was saying his TA working perfectly. So is mine. Guys, it just isn't worth shorting until the uptrend breaks into a downtrend. A lot of punters saying their TA not working but really they just can't blame the TA. Could be the indicators or the time frame they're using.... Off to court again, back (much) later with a market update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted June 18, 2003 Report Share Posted June 18, 2003 Moanin' from A'dam: Nothing of note to report from this side of the world this am.Euromarkets marginally negative but this could change at any time.It's scam week,after all ! Don't see the MM's paying out on all those bull promisory notes issued to mindless male cows--now that they've taken all that cash off the bears. Eurocrapvision was good today with Oy and Peter Toogood(Forsyth Partners). Chris reckons that this is about the top.Still holding to his doomsday of July 29--as spiral calendar day.More importantly perhaps the latest bond rally with higher tops than March 12,shows negative divergence in the indicators. Peter Toogood also stated that the bonds are overbought and that the nature of the correction in bonds(when it comes) will also determine the direction of stocks. If the bond correction is bloody(and sudden) this will affect stocks adversely.If,however,it is orderly,then an asset re-allocation into stocks may take place.But from his talks with other fund managers,he sees even US managers now looking to invest outside US due to $ weakness. His info suggests that only half of the fund managers have participated in this rally since March. There is still no top line growth in companies,both corps and public are cash-flow negative(in US) and the big down with capitulation has still to come.A recovery has never happened from these levels.Purging-a good upper colonic-is still required. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 18, 2003 Report Share Posted June 18, 2003 Ok we finally got a red one with All Ords closing -19.3 (-0.7%). Whether its just a pullback or the start of something more remains to be seen. Looks like the golds did pretty well, not too much green elsewhere. Asia all over the place, Europe heading up after a dodgy start... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted June 18, 2003 Report Share Posted June 18, 2003 Hi Aussiebear-glad to see you're no sequestered! Futures seem to be going north now,taking the euroindices with them. Euro being punished and US bond yields(TNX) now back above the magic 3.25. Obviously intervention is taking place. Spotted a nice little reverse H&S on our index this am.Interesting to see if it works out.Ours is just about the only index in the world that hasn't yet decidely taken out its 200 day sma.Maybe there's potential before the deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 18, 2003 Report Share Posted June 18, 2003 Upsloping triangle on DOW 15min chart....looks like a bullish start to the day... http://www.signalwatch.com/markets/markets-dow.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 18, 2003 Report Share Posted June 18, 2003 It seems crazy but looking at the weekly chart, DOW could go to 10k.. http://www.signalwatch.com/markets/markets-dow.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ned38 Posted June 18, 2003 Report Share Posted June 18, 2003 This type of problem is still lurking in the shadows. 07:00 ET LEH Lehman Brothers could be liable for $80 mln (75.39) The Wall Street Journal reports Lehman Brothers could be liable for more than $80 mln due to pending bankruptcy proceedings involving defunct mortgage lender. The co was a financial backer of First Alliance Corp which currently has two cases pending before a federal judge in Santa Ana, CA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 18, 2003 Report Share Posted June 18, 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 19, 2003 Report Share Posted June 19, 2003 I'm testing if yesterday's thread will still take posts. I assume Aussiebear couldn't start the new one because of service to the State. I feel for Aussiebear. Long-term exposure to the State / Mass Insanity interface zone is very unhealthy for the spirit. While such an experience is always a very small and rigidly defined instance of the current state of affairs, with each such experience, the fact that it is a true representative instance of what's screwed up with the whole world always shouts through loud and clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted June 19, 2003 Report Share Posted June 19, 2003 As I pointed out in IDS earlier, the currencies were showing a CLASSIC setup up for a whacking. Long Uncle Buck via short basket of currencies and lovin' it. :grin: Too bad TA doesn't work, eh? And to think I caught the TBond collapse earlier in the week using the same methods. This is a week I won't soon forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 19, 2003 Report Share Posted June 19, 2003 The Alan Greasepan Boner chart pattern and the Fibonacci Series The other day, I recall reading a Stoolie refer to an "Alan Greasepan Boner" on one of the stock indexes. This Stoolie was not very happy about it, for obvious reasons. If you think this chart formation is 'hard on' stock trading, try forex, where it has been 'popping' up since I started following it about a month ago, and with a frequency over the last week or so that I can only describe as 'irrational exuberance.' This pattern is not to be confused with the BoJ Boner (the BoJer?). A clear distinction between the two can be made from only a quick peep at a chart. I have some data incorporating both. When I have the time, I'll create graphs. With today's level of statism, somebody could do a study and write a book describing and differentiating all the various sub-types of the boner chart pattern. After Sunday night's trade, I got stopped out by one in USD/JPY on Monday while the U.S. markets were open. These pop quickly; once it started popping, I was stopped out in less than 10 minutes. I am not sure if this same one appeared in the stock indexes on Monday and was the same one I read about. Fortunately, I had a AUD/USD position that didn't get stopped out and eventually hit my profit target. I guess the Global Plutocracy doesn't care about this exchange rate. Yet. The good part of all this is I've gotten quite a few (more than I care for, really) samplings of the impact that Alan Greasepan Boner patterns have on the cycles and my fittings of them. In short, the impact is nil, even on the 1-day cycle! Even the curve-fitting algorithm by itself, possessing no intelligence, sees through the bullshit in a matter of minutes, hours at the most. In fact, now when after completing a fit I see the graph of the stool equation cutting right through one of these obnoxious erections, I just say to myself "Yep. That really was an Alan Greasepan Boner," though sometimes it's a BoJ Boner. These are the two types that I have had to deal with so far. The main take home lesson is that this is further evidence that the statists will not stop the market action from progressing to where they are headed anyway. They can only slow it down, and even that is quite limited. The cycles themselves, with each one, measured in days, having a period equal to a Fibonacci number, doggedly remain in place, and the frequency and phase of each, even the 1-day, are simply not affected at all by this manipulation. BoJ has been manipulating away at USD/JPY for a long time now, as they proclaim loudly. Comparing USD/JPY with the other pairs, however, does show that manipulation may simultaneously increase cycle amplitude and slow down the trend. At the same time, this difference may be from other causes. Even if it is from manipulation, in plain English, the trend and cycle impact only means they are slowing down the inevitable, and just by a little bit. If the Hypertiger conclusion is what we really have in our future, all the Greasepan et al. bullshit in the world will only delay it by a couple months at most. If we avoid the dreary conclusion, it won't be because of the plutocracy arseholes, and if anything will be in spite of them. I imagine my observations and conclusions are old news to most Stoolies. I just felt like posting my own direct experience with it, which is new for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 19, 2003 Report Share Posted June 19, 2003 I admire your courage K-wave!! I also saw that the european currencies had badly outrun their trends, their cycles, ... their everything. Even GBP was poised for some retracing. I definitely stayed away from shorting Uncle Buck paired with any of these due to this. Unfortunately, unlike you, I was too chicken :shocked to go long. I've had unpleasant experiences with trying this in USD/JPY. I noticed that starting last night, Uncle Buck increased well over 100 pips paired with the Euro in about, I think, a 12 - 15 hour period!! Nice return! Fortunately for me, the Aussie didn't participate. Intestinal fortitude pays. Excellent trade K-wave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted June 19, 2003 Report Share Posted June 19, 2003 Moanin' from A'dam: Boring here nearing scam week's conclusion. N.Ron: What sort of boner was today's 4am job?All the movement was within one hour! Quite spectacular-was it perhaps Al and BoJ getting it up together. Well seen K and N.Ron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 19, 2003 Report Share Posted June 19, 2003 No trade tonight. I held an older position based on the following fit. Even though it's a day old now, I'm posting the hourly because I changed my procedure. I use only half the data as before and concentrate on the 1-day and 2-day cycles. This gives resolution over 6-12 hours, which I want to start restricting my time frame to. I have natural preference for a holding period in hours; it's just what I'm comfortable with. Yet this requires tight stops that are vulnerable to boners. I'm really, really sick and tired (already) of getting stopped out by these only to see the price went back to where it was half an hour later, and then ended up reaching my profit target. Because of my personal time frame preference, I don't want to hold longer so I can loosen my stops. Instead, I'm going to tighten down enough to get resolution generally down to 6 hours. This should first off help me avoid the most dangerous times. Also, with close price and time parameters, when I get stopped out, for whatever reason, I don't think it will bother me so much. I'll just move on to the next trade. This graph has real data through 06/17/03 at 21:00. The peak at 0.6730 is at about 06/18/03 at 04:30. AUD/USD hit 0.6732 at about 06:00. Not bad!! While this may be beginner's luck, the good result is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 19, 2003 Report Share Posted June 19, 2003 N.Ron: What sort of boner was today's 4am job?All the movement was within one hour!Quite spectacular-was it perhaps Al and BoJ getting it up together. Which market? Which time zone? I'm not sure which boner you're referring to; there have been so freaking many of them lately. If it was the BoJ or Greasepan variety, I should be able to tell right away. If it's another kind, perhaps somebody else can identify it; I have a bad feeling that a large number of varieties exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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