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9:15am 06/17/03 U.S. industrial output shows small gain in May By Rachel Koning

 

U.S. industrial output barely expanded in May, but without the drag of weaker car production, would have increased more last month, Federal Reserve statistics showed Tuesday. U.S. industrial output rose 0.1 percent that month, rather than the average forecast in a CBS MarketWatch poll for a 0.1 percent drop. April was revised to show a slightly larger 0.6 percent drop. Capacity use remained unchanged last month from April, at 74.3 percent, meaning roughly 25 percent of U.S. plants remain idle. Manufacturing output increased 0.2 percent and without cars would have increased 0.3 percent. Durable goods production ex-autos expanded 0.5 percent, for the first increase in several months. Utilities output contraction of 0.8 percent offset a 0.8 percent rise in production at the nation's mines.

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good heads up on MSFT, WNDY & others.

 

sold my small position of SEP SPX puts on move over 1k. Totally flat, stilla lot of dry powder. If I go long, will be for quick profits only, even PM's. No cajones to buy and hold.

 

I think K wave may be rite, but speaking of cahones, I would like to see how many bulls have balls when the second half recovery does not materialize, or we get sufficient bad data to cause a pull back. Unlike late 90's, the bulls are hedges (not the public) and the propensity for profit taking lies in shallow water beneath the surface of this POS. If a decline back to 950ish is vigorously bought, I may be convinced we are in the mid-30's psychologically.

 

Recall the 300% rise was from (many issues) 90% decline levels, and undeniable capitulation . We haven't seen anything resembling this yet.

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Anyone who might have missed K-Wave's comments in M2M last night oughta go read them.

Yes, agree it was an excellent post Fokker....basically if your T/A ain't working, time to overhaul it.....couldn't agree more..

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If the theory that we are in some sort of higher-degree downturn than we were in in the 1930's holds true, i.e. that this is a "Grand-Supercycle" inflection point rather than "just" a "Supercycle" inflection point, then the 1930's experience may yield few clues as to what comes next. You'd have to go back and look at the John Law/South Sea Company bubble for clues, and unfortunately there are no neatly charted stock market indicia from those days.

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Comstock boys echo Fleckenstein's observations (see Gladiator's opening this morning):

 

"The sentiment numbers just released point to a potential ending of the current stock market rally soon. The bullish-bearish ratio compiled by Investor?s Intelligence jumped to 3.6, the highest level it has reached since just months before the stock market crash in 1987. The bullish sentiment climbed to 58.7% while the bearish sentiment dropped to a 16-year low of 16.3%. The most important volatility measures (VIX, VXN, and QQV) are all close to multi year lows. These are measures of investor?s fear, and when they trade down to the lower part of their range it indicates a low level of fear among investors and traders. Although they are not precise timing indicators, these sentiment figures denote a rally that is at a mature stage with minimal upside and potentially dangerous downside. This is particularly so when the market is so highly overvalued and the economy continuing in the doldrums."

 

http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act...roup=Home&aol=1

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