Guest Posted June 15, 2003 Report Share Posted June 15, 2003 Hideously early and pre our market open but I have to shoot off and do the Law & Order thing. Damn shame as I think we'll see a down day and I'm gonna miss the action... been practicing my Alzheimer's look and dribbling a bit so with luck I'll be firmly shown the door in time to catch the arvo market action.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 Hello, It's a new week, and Uncle Buck's swup looks very, very over. I'm tracking 5 currencies against Uncle Buck now, and all that had cycles in the 1-3 month range going strongly with Uncle Buck (causing the swup) have lost enough steam that the background trend has taken over, and the fit is pointing down for Buck in all 5 currencies. Thus, according to my cycle analysis anyway, the Uncle Buck swup that Doc has been following in the Anals is OVER and DONE WITH, as Doc seems to feel as well. It does look like time to get the proverbial fork ready. I have to post the graphs in separate posts. I'll try to get my cycle comments on the right post with the right graph. USD/JPY is still on its same course with linear fit and 34-day cycle fit that have not changed much for over a week now, they just roll along from day to day. If the 34-day continues on with its same vigor, this should be down to 115 within a couple weeks. From past experience, the Bank of Japan has a line in the sand at 116. It will be interesting to hear what noises they make, and what they do, and what impact it has, if much at all in this market. I suspect they won't stop it, though the annoying quick spikes they cause can stop me out; I will prefer another pair for trading when the stool hits Uncle Buck's fan, which could be today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 EUR/USD is dominated by its background trend, though in my time frame the 55-day cycle does have influence, was found by the Igor fit, and its motion gave rise to the swup. You will note the fit (blue line) never went down at all, just sideways. This is because even the steepest (middle portion) of the downward moving half of the cycle was only enough to balance the trend. The 55-day cycle is still going down, yet nearing its bottom and thus has lower slope, and the background trend is moving summed projection up again. This will really accelerate when the 55-day cycle itself actually rolls over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 Next is the British Pound. GBP/USD is almost pure trend. Igor did fit the 89-day cycle (more like 92 days right now) yet with very low amplitude (about a dime of difference between maxima and minima). This one's just going straight up; the swup is/was barely perceptible in the actual data or the fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 This one, AUD/USD, along with the last (USD/CAD), most clearly portend the end of the swup may be very near, Uncle Buck may begin to nosedive, and the massive market manipulation may get very serious, at least ramped up a few notches. Cyclical action is more prominent here than with Euro or Pound, and like the Yen, it is the 34-day cycle that is very manifest at present. The downward portion (against Buck, which ended with Yen about a week ago), has been running out of steam and appears to be turning. If this cycle and the background trend hold, AUD should make a significant jump against USD over the next 1-2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 USD/CAD is almost identical to AUD/USD; it is just the mirror image because the pairing is reversed. Same fairly prominent 34-day cycle, same phase ... same result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 Well the bad news is I'm on the jury and even worse, it's a homicide *sigh*. Looks like things are gonna run into next week... I did manage to shoot outside on the breaks and squint up at the stock exchange building which has an illuminated All Ords on top but that's about as close as I got to the action. Checking the intraday chart we dropped at open then did the slow crawl back up closing +2.9 which is neither here nor there. Looks like the golds did ok though... Jeepers the Nikkei did a bit of a sag, looking nice & bearish on the 5 day chart, a top methinks... Europe looking chirpy so far, see if it lasts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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