Guest Posted June 13, 2003 Report Share Posted June 13, 2003 Looking like another sideways day. Fri 13, something has to happen SURELY.. All Ords currently +3.3.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 13, 2003 Report Share Posted June 13, 2003 Hello Stoolies, I hope all is well with you all. My USD/JPY daily fit is about the same. The anemic action over the last few days is allowing the 34-day cycle fit to spread back closer to an actual 34 day period. The shortening of the cycle may simply been error due to my limited data set. Igog just finds the best fit possible for the number I provide. Without a large set of prices going back a large number of days, Igor cannot recognize the action getting ahead of itself, and thus cannot predict dull action that allows the price to drift back to its actual cycle. Error creeps in from so many different places, and then in the end the market just does whatever it wants anyway, at least in the short term . Daily cycle projection is still pointing down, close to 117 if the price moves all the way to touch this cycle. Here's the graph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 13, 2003 Report Share Posted June 13, 2003 The hourly fit is also pointing down, but this time as yawnishly as the actual market action has been the past few days -- all the way from 117.6 to 117.4 in 24 hours. Wow!!! I'm already positioned short, having entered about 14 hours ago, with a reasonable looking (at the time) entry at 117.75. Last I looked, the quote was 117.65. What a move! At least the direction is favorable, though of course that could be changing as I type this. Since I'm already in, and both fits are pointing my way, I'll stay with it. If still floundering when I wake up, and I don't have the time to update my fits, I'll take a time stop. After my fit, the 21-day cycle is still strongly present, and probably will be for quite a while in this time frame. Otherwise, I obtained convergence to the 5-day, 3-day and 2-day cycles, as has been the case recently. The 21-day and 5-day are heading up, and this is what is holding back the strong 34-day and the shorter term cycles from carrying this pair down. I suspect the upwardly moving 21-day cycle that I have found is my counterpart to Uncle Buck's swup that Doc has found and is following in the anals. Though I am really just guessing at this, it would fit because the 21-day cycle is a month in real (calendar) time and Doc is talking about approximately 2 weeks of swupping for Uncle Buck -- the length of the upward portion of a cycle lasting one month. I need the 5-day to start turning down, as my USD/JPY fit projects in the next 12 hours or so, to get the downward movement I need for my trade. Here is the hourly fit chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alceringa Posted June 13, 2003 Report Share Posted June 13, 2003 Nick-Me was North of the 9000 Line a couple of times today. Looks like the close will be just under it. Yoo-hoo world markets Uncle Buck Spoo-Hoo's- Nasty- Globex Flash Quotes Link euroland Jo-burg Miners Here After Hours-USA AM Market Call By CNNMoney From Bloomberg 1:45AM Stool HQ Time Japanese Stocks Head for Fourth Weekly Gain, Led by Oracle; Korea Rises Japanese stocks rose as benchmarks headed for a fourth straight week of gains, the longest rally in more than a year. Oracle Corp. Japan rose after its U.S. parent reported fourth-quarter sales that beat some anal cysts' estimates. Dollar Heads for Losing Week on Mounting Fed Interest Rate-Cut Speculation SK Corp. Chairman Chey, 9 Other Executives Found Guilty in Fraud ScandalBloomberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 13, 2003 Report Share Posted June 13, 2003 Another non event sort of day....general downtrend until near close when All Ords did a minor ramp to close in the green, +3.2 (0.1%). Golds were mostly flat. Choppy sort of action generally. Blah blah.. Asia up with only Singers and China showing some marginal red... Now next week moi has been summoned to jury duty. I'm hoping that a skinny, old, cigar smoking white woman will be considered detrimental to the case. On the other hand, with my luck, I'll be picked and it'll be a triple homicide with associated money laundering/police corruption/gun running/drug trafficking and I'll be incarcerated in an hotel room for the rest of the year... As I have to arise in what I consider to be the middle of the night to present myself, maybe Alceringa or one of the other moderators might be kind enough to open the forum if I'm absent... TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 13, 2003 Report Share Posted June 13, 2003 Uncle Buck just had a little spasm to the upside. I hope this isn't a precursor to a London jam session. Thankfully, USD/JPY chose not to participate . Feeling ambitious, and with nothing better to do right now, I collected my initial daily data set for EUR/USD. I did a fit, and with no surprise found it dominated over the past couple months by a straight-line trend. To account for the recent pause, Igor converged to a sinusoid with close to a 55 day period, summed with the line. A 55-day cycle does exist, so I went with it. In my fit, it does have very low amplitude simply because the directional trend is dominating right now. This is the graph of my fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 13, 2003 Report Share Posted June 13, 2003 ...general downtrend until near close when All Ords did a minor ramp to close in the green ... and ... On the other hand, with my luck, I'll be picked and it'll be a triple homicide with associated money laundering/police corruption/gun running/drug trafficking and I'll be incarcerated in an hotel room for the rest of the year... Just another day, and year, in the matrix! While you can't do anything about the former, I wish you luck with avoiding the latter! :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted June 13, 2003 Report Share Posted June 13, 2003 Moanin' from A'dam. Aussiebear: That's real bad luck, jury service and all.Hope that if you are chosen it's not one of those major things,where you get stuck in an hotel with a bunch of people you never met before and would never wish to meet again. Never had the misfortune to be called while living in UK--here(in Holland)they don't have a jury system.My mum once got called and I remember her saying that she could see that the guy was guilty the moment he appeared-so much for due process!! Euromarkets down slightly today.AEX demonstrating its ability to win or lose one percent more than the others! Seems that since the DAX got above 3200 they are determined to keep it there. But lest we not forget,this is pre-scam week--where markets go in the opposite direction of real scam week.Just to uphold the 90% success average of options writers! One interesting point about yesterday's action here was the gain of the market was concentrated in the bank-insurers and insurers with huge volumes in Aegon and ING. What does this mean?Were institutions and fundies short of these stocks and had to buy as soon as the AEX broke above the 300 level? Or is this just another of the many con-jobs that the big guys pull in order to get rid of their stocks at the highest price? Distinctly reminiscent of Royal Dutch Shell 3 days before it was dropped from the S&P---went to a 6-month high on massive volume before losing 40% of its value in the weeks after the announcement. Another Dutch company Hagemeyer(trading co) announces today that it sold some US operation which it bought at the height of 90's boom.I don't think they made a profit on it-stock just saw 25% of its price vaporize in minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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