Guest Posted June 11, 2003 Report Share Posted June 11, 2003 Ok the bulls out in force today BUT we have the All Ords currently at the top trendline in an expanding formation and there's also horizontal resistance sooooooo I'm thinking it could be the end of the road for upside for a few days..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 11, 2003 Report Share Posted June 11, 2003 Good Evening Stoolies-'round-the-World, I don't remember using brown for any data or equation plots in my graphs. Oh wait! That't the color that appeared on my pants when I checked the result of yesterday evening's trade this morning! For quite a few hours, USD/JPY made a few thrusts up of about 20 pips in a few minutes. As has been the case lately, however, Uncle Buck immediately felt the dire need to lie down again. Eventually, he unloaded in his bed pan, stopping me out for a 25 pip/lot loss. It would be easy to say donging the ol' uncle was a mistake from the start. Not for me; my natural bias toward trading is very technical - go with the chart-derived numbers and forget everything else. Going against my own 34-day cycle, on the other hand, is something I won't do any more. Over the past couple weeks, I've done this 5-6 times, with this (surprise, surprise) producing a lot of losses. Not always, but too often. While I know I don't have a large enough sample to really measure this, experienced traders I have read consistently say don't trade a signal in your own trading time frame that opposes the signal from your longer-term background time frame. I have noticed the sputter and thud quality of these trades, and last evening's was a classic example. Another reason I made this execution changing decision is I want to start viewing more pairs than just USD/JPY. Since I produce a daily-data fit, I might as well use it as a filter before just blindly converting the numbers for hourly-data use. If the current price is on the "wrong side of the line", suggesting a next short term move against the longer (now 34-day cycle) trend, I know not to bother moving on to the hourly fit. This in itself will be a DON'T TRADE signal based on the longer time frame. I can crank out fits from daily data very fast, and following several currency pairs won't be a practical problem. I can then move to the hourly fit for only those that show promise for a particular evening. I have to admit, in hindsight I feel pretty foolish for donging Uncle Buck in the first place, especially against the very prominent 34-day cycle present in my own trading-vehicle pair. For those who read here and are interested in currency/forex, yet don't subscribe to the anals, I now offer a plug for Doc! My dollar-wary comments come from more than the recent dollar down trend everybody is familiar with. Doc follows the dollar index on a daily basis in the anals and charts/updates the cycles in detail for the intermediately and long term, using daily and weekly data respectively. He also follows "the feed," quite literally, the amount of liquidity Greenspam is desparately feeding the economy, almost daily, to maintain the illusion of prosperity and keep everything from unraveling. Right now, the dollar is "swupping," which means enough daily-data cycles are moving up to (temporarily) halt the serious down slide of Uncle Buck, and the index has even risen slightly the last few days. Even if you don't trade dollar index futures directly and prefer a much shorter time frame, as I do, this information is spot on for knowing the background environment I am operating in. This post is getting long for IDS. Moving on, USD/JPY is nearing its point of steepest downward slope within its 34-day cycle. At the same time, its 23:00 NY time price was above the 34-day cycle fit line, thus suggesting a potential short, and thus moving on to an hourly data fit is worthwhile this evening to further investigate a potential short. Here is the daily-data fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 11, 2003 Report Share Posted June 11, 2003 Upon fitting the hourly data, I obtained fits for the 8-day, 5-day and 3-day cycles only. My x-factor sinusoid fell all the way to 8-days rather than any hybrid. The one I started at 8 days fell to 5, while the start at 2 days rose to 3. The result was an 8-day fit, two sinusoids with periods very close to 5 days and two very close to 3 days. I prefer this to low-amplitude hybrid fits. Two math terms fitting the same cycle reflects the fact that the period may be varying a little (as it does) and the amplitude may be varying a whole lot, and quickly (as amplitude has a nasty habit of doing). Mathematically, using two sinusoid terms per cycle can approximate this effect. Generally, this is too cumbersome to use for each cycle and fitting gets too abstract, usually resulting in a poorer fit than just doing my best with one sinsusoid per cycle. However, when Igor wants to use two sinusoids per cycle and then blow off other cycles completely, I go with it. For some reason, tonight the fitting algorithm found that a more perfect fit of the 3-day and 5-day was more important than fitting the 2-day at all. Well, hopefully I'll agree with Igor's choice in the morning Here's the chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 11, 2003 Report Share Posted June 11, 2003 Based on both fits showing downward motion with actual price (23:00 NY time) above projection curves, I entered short. USD/JPY short Entry at 118.01 Stop at 118.26 Limit at 117.56 Time stop at 12 hours (11:00 NY time) Regarding other currency pairs, I am definitely going to start tracking EUR/USD; it offers the tightest bid/ask spread at my brokerage. Most of the major currencies paired with Uncle Buck offer good bid/ask, and I would be willing to trade them, and thus willing to follow them. I am open to requests from fellow Stoolies who would like to see my fits of a particular currency pair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 11, 2003 Report Share Posted June 11, 2003 N. Ron you have been busy! Btw no problem re length on this forum, just the IDS US intraday one where the posts are fast and furious... We got the flagpole rally and then the usual sideways action. All Ords closed +13.6 (+0.4%) pretty much on the upper trendline of the expanding formation so it will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. The Nikkei bounced off the underside of the 9k line, could be trying to tell us something... Europe open and in the green so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milt Posted June 11, 2003 Report Share Posted June 11, 2003 Good morning all...it's a lovely day here in England,nice and sunny for a change. Just seen Oyster on the tv....reckons high could be in...secondary high around June 13th...decline accelerates from July 4th to low around end July.I will post more details on Look Out Below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted June 11, 2003 Report Share Posted June 11, 2003 Moanin' from A'dam. Europe a bit mixed(-up?) this am.All markets positive(+1%) out of the gate only to drop back towards the zero line in the first hour.Amsterdam managing to maintain +1% in the face of slightly negative US futures. They still manage to hold these markets above critical support levels.Despite TI's warning last night chip/machine makers in the plus in Germany as here.Must be being read as the warning due to SARS--now over and dealt with-ding,next please! Chris Locke just been on Eurocrap.No real change in forecast.Beware 955 on S&P for bulls and 1007 for bears. Reckons that around 4th July will now be the turn.Still has 29th July as a low.If market does drop,then the important support area will be around the 910(confluence of the 200day ema and 50 day ema).Below here and new lows probable. Last Friday was a perfect Gann square of price and time from--er,er can't remember--2000 high???October low??? !3th June maybe important as a turn(think that's what he said). Another fund(asset) manager on same prog talking abot how he has taken advantage of this rally to sell all his Vodaphone holding for a nice price.Other managers doing similar with BSkyB.He talked about looking forward with these over-owned stocks and as you peel away the layers there's always a one-off charge somewhere and an insidious desire of these companies to spend any money they do make on new acquisitions.No dividend yield etc.etc.Basically "emperor has no clothes" companies. Find it now rather scary that the "Bradley" date of start July seems to be getting more and more prominent in market forecasts.Also, because if it goes as indicated,the turn is very sharply defined.We shall see. As I write,the AEX has just hit the 300 mark-so brace yourself guys in the US for what may be a real jam day. Don't forget that today is pre-scam-week-Wednesday-ie the market moves in precisely the opposite direction to that which the scammers desire for real scam week.Just to wrong-foot everyone and KACHING for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted June 11, 2003 Report Share Posted June 11, 2003 AEX now above Friday's high-they be jammin'. Bonkers seem to be joining in the party.Yippee we're all going bonkers! Watch yo' wallets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted June 11, 2003 Report Share Posted June 11, 2003 Just had a quick peek at the CBOE open interest for indices. Don't know how to interpret it BUT there sure are a lot more open put contracts than calls on the indices. I can't remember that well but I'm sure that the position has reversed since 2 weeks ago.Click Here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alceringa Posted June 11, 2003 Report Share Posted June 11, 2003 The site is running slow as mole-asses for me. Slow page loads and even stall-outs-anybody else having this problemo? Yoo-hoo world markets Uncle Buck Spoo-Hoo's- Nasty- Globex Flash Quotes Link euroland Jo-burg Miners Here After Hours-USA AM Market Call By CNNMoney From Bloomberg 03:30 AM Stool HQ Time Telecom Italia Raises $3.5 Billion by Selling Stake in Directories Unit Telecom Italia SpA, Italy's biggest phone company, sold 62 percent of its directories business to a group led by BC Partners Ltd. for 3 billion euros ($3.5 billion) to cut debt. Royal Bank of Scotland to Buy Credit Suisse's Churchill for $1.8 Billion European Stocks Advance, Paced by Shares of Royal Bank of Scotland, AegonBloomberg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ned38 Posted June 11, 2003 Report Share Posted June 11, 2003 CYMI lowers guidance http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/030611/115100_1.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 11, 2003 Report Share Posted June 11, 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 11, 2003 Report Share Posted June 11, 2003 Good morning and Good Stool to all! Your Golden Stool is now ready for you to download. Golden Stool is now being updated each morning by 7:30 AM ET, on a separate page for yur convenience. For those of you who are new to IDS, let me review the guidelines. 1. IDS is devoted to short term trading and market tracking issues, news alerts, and humorous diversions. Any other posts should be posted on LOB, where other stoolies can follow up on the subject. 2. Posts should be short and sweet, no longer than five to ten lines. Here in IDS world markets, you can go a little longer because the thread isn't busy yet, but the object is to BE CONCISE! Again, longer posts, not specifically aimed at intraday trading issues should be posted on Look Out Below. 3. Most important of all, have fun! Doc tanks you for participating here in IDS World Markets. I am sure that over time, you will become a worldwide farce to be reckoned with! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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