Guest Posted June 9, 2003 Report Share Posted June 9, 2003 Queen's birthday public hol here today so no market action. Bit of a shame really as I think we would have seen some decent red. Never mind tomorrow is another day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 9, 2003 Report Share Posted June 9, 2003 Hello all, Posting a trade for all to see right after taking it (well actually about 40 minutes ago) and before knowing the results is scary and intimidating! Expose that ego -- what the hell! My holding time-frame is generally 9 to 15 hours. I trade forex and am starting out with USD/JPY. I start with a long-term (for my time frame) line plus cycle fit, looking for the most obvious cycle on 3 to 6 months worth of a daily chart. Once obtaining a fit, I record the best-fit parameters and convert them for use on an hourly chart, and this then serves as the background, long-term trend about which I fit the shorter term, (2, 3, 5 & 8) day cycles. The equation is K0 + K1*t + A*sin(w*t + phi). The graph of the fit follows (red is data, blue is fit equation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 9, 2003 Report Share Posted June 9, 2003 From there, I fit hourly data for my price forecast and trade signal, if I get a signal. I did today (evening for me). The final fitting equation (stool equation ) is long: K0 + K1*t + A*sin(w*t + phi) + Ax*sin(wx*t + phix) + A8*sin(w8*t + phi8) + A5*sin(w5*t + phi5) + A3*sin(w3*t + phi3) + A2*sin(w2*t + phi2) The x-factor sinusoid is an additional cycle that I allow Igor to find. I start with the 55-day cycle. I have had it go up to the 89-day cycle, though it usually stays at 55 or converges on a smaller one. Today, it came all the way to the 13-day cycle. When I fit the short-term cycles, they do not always stay where I start out. Today, for example, Igor blew off the 8-day. It fit the 5-day, 3-day and 2-day, which are all currently at periods almost exactly equal to their ideals. Instead of the 8-day, it found something with a period of about 2-1/2 days. Sometimes, a sinusoids fits to a "cycle" half-way between one of the actual ones. Based on my research and studies so far, I don't believe this is a real cycle. Instead, I suspect this is a phase-adjusted linear combination of the 2 and 3 day cycles. The fitting algorithm is dumb in that it just goes downhill to the best fit it can, twisting parameters any which way to get there. To the extent it cannot perfectly fit actual cycles, here the 2 and 3 day, it can get closer by approximating a linear combination in a different phase. Anyway, this is just a guess at this point. Doing what I described above, I got a good fit with Chi Square less than 10, very good for 240 data points. I just hope reality matches and I don't get smoked on my first trade posted for all to witness Of note, the horizontal tail of the red line is not real data. I had to put it in for my crappy little graphics program. The point where the lines diverge is the hard right edge of real data (02:00 NY time). I shorted Uncle Buck. Execution at 118.39 Stop loss 118.79 Limit 117.64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alceringa Posted June 9, 2003 Report Share Posted June 9, 2003 Yoo-hoo world markets Uncle Buck-Just for you EnRon-Good Luck on that Trade Spoo-Hoo's- Nasty- Globex Flash Quotes Link euroland Jo-burg Miners Here After Hours-USA AM Market Call By CNNMoney Bloomberg SARS may or not be zoonotic, but there's no question about Monkey Pox......Monkey Pox Virus Strikes in Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted June 9, 2003 Report Share Posted June 9, 2003 Moanin' from A'dam. Good luck on that trade N.Ron. Today,another public hol. but markets open.Started lower but no compensation for the 3.5% gain on Friday.Strangely,the last 1% of that gain came in MM's playtime(last 10 mins of trade each day that only the "professional" traders are able to square the books or something). More often than not,a sudden spurt upwards in the last 10 mins. would indicate a down day to follow--as they write a load of ITM calls at the highest price.Maybe this time they were buying to cover their asses if this POS does keep going up. Finally the AEX is out of its 20 point range-after 2 months of boredom--next resistance is 7% higher than here.Exactly where massive open call interest lies for July. If things were to go according to Bradley then it'll probably go up beyond that resistance and fall back dramatically for scam week in July-just when everyone thought a new bull market had started.Ha ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted June 9, 2003 Report Share Posted June 9, 2003 motorola just dropped a turd... :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 9, 2003 Report Share Posted June 9, 2003 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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