wndysrf Posted December 13, 2002 Report Share Posted December 13, 2002 Mark?s Market Commentary ? December 13, 2002 The Master Con Man, Larry Kudlow, recovering alcoholic, and Wall Street Cheerleader, must be congratulated. Everybody see Emma Crosby this morning? Anybody notice that after the late night session with Kudlow, she woke up at 5:00am, got dressed in the dark, and realized that she was wearing Kudlow?s zoot suit during Squawk Box this morning? I guess he was the first to score on that beauty. But what do you expect? Anybody who is so optimistic and bullish about everything must also be bullish on his ability to cajole and persuade Emma into the sack last night. I wish I was the CEO of New Century Financial (NCEN). I?d hire him as the top closer for my sales team. Well we had quite a week. A nice key outside day reversal on gold to combine with last week?s key outside day reversal in stocks. What?s next? I expected more downside volume today. But the selling pressure failed to materialize. Volume today was less than yesterday. We have gone down about 10 trading days since the December 2 highs. The stochastic and money flow according to AskResearch is near the bottom. Next week is Scam Week and the beginning of the all important Year End Mark Up, where the 27-year old fund managers? jobs and bonuses are on the line. If there was ever a time to use what credit power is left to jam the market up, this is the time. Count 10 positive trading days from today, and we end up right at the end of the year to form a double top on the broad indexes. Since the volume during the remainder of the year is expected to be light, it is possible to put in a textbook second high on very light volume. That?s the bullish scenario. On the other hand, it appears that everybody expects a year end jam and the all predictable Options Racketeering jam. Maybe since so many expect it, it will fail to materialize. Maybe the reason why we haven?t seen any selling pressure is that everyone expects higher prices later. A better place to unwind those ?mistakes? like buying QueerLogic at $44 on November 29. Maybe today everyone was Christmas shopping, so today?s volume didn?t count. Maybe next week the market gets smoked. Gold is telling us that something is afoot. So we?ll stay short for now, but will keep the spikes up in our backs. Gold held its $330 line today, despite the options expiration slam down in the late morning. As predicted, a mob of nervous sellers showed up when the gold shares gapped up on the open. Everyone was quick to take profits, but when the shares sold down to 50% of yesterday?s move, a fresh wave of longs came in. Classic bull market action. Quite a difference from these ?all aboard immediately? desperation gaps found on these tech stock rallies. Speaking of X-Box fund managers, today?s WSJ featured the 33-year old Ryan Jacob, the manager of the Jacob Internet Fund. His picture is posted on page C1. He looks like a daytime soap star. Jacob?s fund is among the group of Death Star funds like Merrill Lynch?s infamous Internet Strategies Fund which started in March 2000 with $1 billion under management and now has about $114 million after it merged into the Global Technology Fund. What is amazing is that out of 183 funds of this type, 143 are still in existence!! Jacob is now bragging that his fund is up 43% since the October lows. He says ?the trick is to take the long view?, and insists that his fund ?protects investors in a declining market and helps them participate in an improving market.? Yet Jacob?s fund has had a negative return of about 57% annually since its inception. An investor who put $10,000 into the Jacob Internet Fund 3 years ago would have only $769 left this week, according to Morningstar. It has an expense ratio of 4.6%. He claims the high expenses are the result of declining assets under management. The amount of assets under management fell from $206 million in 1999 to only $10 million in October 2002, but has since rebounded to $30 million. When he was questioned by the WSJ reporter that his fund was at the bottom of all funds based on 3-year returns, he said ?Really, are you sure??. He had to go to Morningstar.com himself to see for himself. How is he ?catching up? using his ?long view? strategy? He says he has ?overhauled his fund?s investment style, buying and selling stocks more frequently?. Translation: Forget the long view. Last month he was HeatMapping his way to prosperity, buying CMGI, INKT, YHOO, EXPE, and all the rest during this fantasy rally. Has he sold yet? Or will he ride them all the way back down hoping for another 1999 miracle? Anyway, that?s enough for now. I?m exhausted. My birthday is Tuesday. I expect all the Stool Pigeons to send all available Supermodels to Redondo Beach for the day?.. I like the tall, skinny ones like the one featured below. Model Portfolios AJC?s Planet of the Apes portfolio is down by 23.6% year to date. The ?I Dare You? short portfolio is up by 17.5% since October 22, thanks to the spectacular blowup in AZO yesterday. Position Summary: New half short on SYMC at $42, just in case this thing drops big next week. Thanks to MERCILESS for the tip. Still kind of nervous here, ready to cover quickly if we reverse to the upside next week. We are 54% short, 16% long, 19% cash. Half Short: LOW at $42 KSS at $66 INTU at $53 C at $38 IBM at $85 TGT at $34 MBI at $50 NCEN at $26 SYMC at $42 Quarter Short: FRE at $68 CFC at $49 KBH at $49 LEN at $56 TOL at $27 BBBY at $35 COCO at $40 INTC at $18 DELL at $28 ORCL at $11 CSCO at $14 Half Long: BGO at $1.31 HL at $4.10 PAAS at $5 DROOY at $3.35 GG at $10 GLG at $9 MDG at $16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted December 13, 2002 Report Share Posted December 13, 2002 Is she staring at the gold chart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted December 13, 2002 Report Share Posted December 13, 2002 Are they measuring wave A of an ABC corrective on her left breast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charliss Posted December 13, 2002 Report Share Posted December 13, 2002 Mark, Actually, I doubt that Larry Kudlow would be interested in Emma Crosby, and I think she would have that figured out. On the other hand, Mark Haines got quite crosseyed gazing at her. The whole world is quite a show. Sit back and enjoy it... Good mkt day for me. Be well...take care. Thanks for your commentary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 13, 2002 Report Share Posted December 13, 2002 David Tice telling it like it is: http://www.prudentbear.com/PDF/annual.pdf (note Pudlow "Kudlowians" jab on top of page 5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted December 13, 2002 Report Share Posted December 13, 2002 The commercials added 14,000 net short positions on the spx. They are now up to around 59,000 net short, up from 10,000 on the 10th of Oct. :grin: Have a good weak end stoolies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbadropping Posted December 13, 2002 Report Share Posted December 13, 2002 Checking in late. Took welcome break from the hysteria. Next week I think money will slosh North as Capone and his Racketeers muscle the HedgeHoggers and run some numbers. Retail holiday stock shoppers are bullish and don't tend to short the market and the whiff of 'good will towards men' and other platitudes crowd the air like bowel gas hovering over a Greek latrine. Watching for telltale signs of rabies in QueerLogic and Klackety Klac. Happy Birthday to Marky Mark. Your move is to corner the Gold Market by late January and then buy that first jet and elope with sweet Emma to some hideaway far beyond the din. She is first class. On Crapvision she must have seemed a virgin in the midst of vampires. Really the only watchable finance celebrity I can think of. The rest of them are just so much eye vomit. have a good weekend all, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted December 13, 2002 Report Share Posted December 13, 2002 And a very GOOD market day for me too-KACHING! I sold all my SPX, QQQ's and OEX positions close to the lows and got prices very close to the highs of the day. But my highlight was 20 Dec. puts I bought on IBM near the close yesterday-I nailed big screw within 20 cents of the low scalping that sumbitch for good coin made my day-it was payback for a loss on IBM last month-( I am NOT a good loser) but I'm sure as hell grinning now. With an hour to go I loaded up on Jan.900 puts SPX and Jan 465 puts OEX this isn't over yet. As Mark said everyone is expecting a Xmas jam job and as End reported the Commercials have been loading up on puts. To me that means Da Boyz are going to gut the sheep AGAIN to bring this thing down so they can try and levitate it upward at year end. Gold is still trying to tell us something-huge rumour in the GOLD pits-that a major buyer has asked for physical delivery of the metal and is having trouble getting delivery of GOLD he has bought and paid for-could it be true??? My two main holdings RGLD and GG both set all time highs for the second day in a row and their technicals are very bullish. So long GOLD and short the market-I have orders in just under the market for put positions on GE and C -my SPX and OEX positions are well in the green stops are 895 and 460 respectively so at worst a small profit and at best a lot of coin. Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest soup1 Posted December 13, 2002 Report Share Posted December 13, 2002 Hey Mark, my birthday is 12/17 as well. Btw, it usually an up day in the mkt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted December 13, 2002 Report Share Posted December 13, 2002 No "miracle" button and no good bye yellow brick road yet. But still a good bear bite. The psychology of the lemmings is still holding fast, maybe they game it to the updraft event next week, but a 600 point gain by the end of the year in the current environment just doesn't seem likely. But not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tbone Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 Mark: Great as usual! Emma Crosy...huuummm..that ain't no bad deal! Stioolies...check out this site: http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/p....asp#prediction most interesting analysis of Nikkei & SP500 correlation & log projections for future market action...seems quite feasible to me. tbone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 Brian4 Example from a previous post. Many years ago when gold coin was the currency Banks did not exist... The only group that had the necessary facilities to store wealth in the form of gold coins were the GOLDSMITHS. People would store (Deposit) their gold and the goldsmith would give them a receipt. The people found it easier to carry receipts to market then gold after awhile and the receipts became as ?good as gold?. The Goldsmiths noticed that at any given time 90% of the gold in their vaults just collected dust, so the goldsmiths started loaning gold in the form of receipts on top of just making phony receipts. The gold market to this very day is run like this? as long as people will take paper instead of GOLD you will never run out of GOLD and paper is almost endless. One slight problem was found with this system DEBT INFLATION. As Debt inflation grows the ?receipts? lose buying power 2 ways a) the compound interest charged on the ?loans? destroys the value of the receipts b ) The counterfeit receipts and loans increase the supply of buying power which causes prices to rise which adds to or compounds the destruction of buying power. And the biggest problem with DEBT inflation is that the bigger the DEBT grows the less GOLD there is to back up the DEBT so eventually the system will grow continually weaker until there is no backing any more for the receipts in circulation. At the start of Debt inflation 1,000,000 receipts are in circulation with 10% backing by gold, so as long as only 100,000 receipts are exchanged for GOLD then there is no problem. But if DEBT INFLATION reaches MAXOUT at 10,000,000 then only 10,000 receipts are needed to suck up all the gold? Could be what's causing the trouble, but will it catch fire? Will there be a run on gold? Suspense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShamPoo Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 Thanks so much Mark and here's wishing you a very happy birthday in advance. There was a radio show many years back called Rube. It was about a female private eye and set in the future. Androids were everywhere. People had androids for pets because they were so much easier to care for. And of course women had mail androids and men had female androids. The whole thing was a comedy and been a radio show, the pictures were all up to your imagination. One of the female androids was named Angel Lipps. What a sexy voice. There was this guy that kept wanting to marry her and she had to keep telling him that he couldn't because she was an android. But I don't care, he said, you're so much better than the real women I know. Of course, she said, I'm programmed to be that way. Mark, for all your great writing over these many months I would send you Angel Lipps if it were within my power. Yes, most everyone thinks the market will rally toward the end of the year. There are 11 trading days left. Still don't have the faintest idea which direction it will go. Fund managers want to see the market go up, amateur traders do almost always go long, end of year is historically up, the government would like the market to go up, the market has been going down now for several days. All these points indicate that many of those 11 days will be spent moving up. So the market will probably go down. No idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sweefraapp Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 h&s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 HYPER- I am amazed at how even the most ardent BEARS are ignoring what the GOLD market is trying to tell us. The intraday high today was a 15 yr.high-this is no run of the mill gold rally-are you and I and Dog Boy-the only ones who can see there is a BIG TELL here. Gold is a canary in a coal mine-when she sings there is trouble ahead. re your last post-sure you're right since more GOLD has been sold or leased than there is physical supply (and the game has been going on for yrs) if the big players demand the GOLD-then the squeeze of squeezes is underway! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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