MyGoldenStool Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 Check this one out! KOPN has been my home board for 2 years now- it's been very good to me! http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&actio...87482&mid=62465 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 Better count me in too, B4- been tits short, as in, no cash, all through this disaster, reduced to buying em 1 contract at a time until yestiddy... not proud of it, but very relieved today. Will be much more relieved when that ascending trendline goes el-busto. This last potential, possible bounce is an unpleasant thought, still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 I hope SG comes back, He is going to Doc $100. :grin: The bet aint over yet my friend... 930 is still coming The chart by Madame Wrecked em is actually bullish Its a 5 wave wedge, wave 4 up is finishing around 930 ish, maybe a tad over... as I've been saying for multi weeks now without waiver. Wave 5 will be DOWN in that channel yes... and as the bears begin to celebrate early... she will finish up that wave 5 down and then head UP.... >.... just thought I'd toss that in to rile some of y'all up a bit... get the discussion going. Couldnt resistn after seeing The End beating his chest... and the bet is far from done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 Just heard the Crawford clip-Arch is a good technical anal cyst but man has he had a terrible year-I say take it with a grain ( a small grain at that) of salt! Sure we could have a new BULL market simple all the governments have to do is get in a surplus by taking in increased revenue but if you fight wars, increase deficits and cut taxes at the same time which increase deficits and businesses don't make profits etc. well hell Bush knows the way doesn't he?? Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injured Grizzly Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 SG: How high do you think this will go yet? Looking at the charts I think it could go higher from here. Yet the indicators like the vix and bullbear% are showing a severe overbought state. The longer it stays here in this area the harder it will be to go higher. That said I am max short via spx puts into June and Sept. I have some qqq puts may 26's. I prefer not to keep them if it breaks higher here. If I have read his posts right. I think BB believes it could go up from here too. But he is starting to look at getting short. Oyster is looking for a 1 to 3 month drop. Doc thinks it has topped. K-Wave is now bearish if I read his IDS post right. Pile is right about the upside being limited and the downside large. Why do you still believe in the upside yet? Where would you become bearish if it broke down below? IG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 Greg-you're always counted in-either you and I and others are bi polar nattering nabobs of negativism-missing all the signs that point to a great economy, a chicken in every pot and a blonde in every bed or we like our fellow stoolies have a sixth sense (my wife says I have a sixth sense, because there is no sign of the other five) Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 I hope SG comes back, He is going to Doc $100. :grin: The bet aint over yet my friend... 930 is still coming The chart by Madame Wrecked em is actually bullish Its a 5 wave wedge, wave 4 up is finishing around 930 ish, maybe a tad over... as I've been saying for multi weeks now without waiver. Wave 5 will be DOWN in that channel yes... and as the bears begin to celebrate early... she will finish up that wave 5 down and then head UP.... >.... just thought I'd toss that in to rile some of y'all up a bit... get the discussion going. Couldnt resistn after seeing The End beating his chest... and the bet is far from done... I wasn't beating my chest SG and I take you did not beat yours last week when you basically said the same damn thing but, without the smilie. True it ain't over. What nobody can toot a horn early around here except YOU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 Answering Grizzly's question mainly because he has been extremely kind to me via PM's recently... so here goes.... SG has had a longstanding 930 SP target, and Im not ready to back off of it yet. SHould I turn out to be wrong, well... only off by less than 10 points and the target when put out was largely laughed at I recall. That said... ABC flat is the pattern I see and have seen on the SP500 off the Oct 9 lows... since the B wave got NEAR the Oct 9 low.... thats a flat.... and therefore, the C wave should get to the A wave high or close. In this case, the A wave high I think was 954??? But, SG several weeks ago crunched up some numbers of which I have completely forgotten the whereabouts... but I remember coming up with 930 for a good reason, instead of 954. So... what would change my forecast? I havent truthfully been following closely the intricate waves of the SP 500 last 10-15 days or so, but basically I would say a break of 884 would say that I missed the top by that 10 or less points.... Re the QQQ, which Im following more closely... yes its extended short term on several TA measures.... so it should pull back... however... I dont see a 5 wave completed impulse off the ABC low of 25.31 we recently had.... I see 3 waves done, and today I saw what was likely a 4th wave or nearly complete 4th wave corrective.... and the 3rd wave up to 27.72 was about the same length as wave 1.... so the potential for wave 5 up to be an "extension" wave is better than 50%. The 26.91 print I saw today was a perfect fibo naccho retrace wave.... and more than the .382 I usually would expect in a wave 4... which gives me some pause.... However, assuming she holds 26.91 early next week.... then the 5th wave up would resume, and a break over 27.12 would confirm its underway. Now this 5th wave can be very hard to predict in terms of Fibo moves... because 5th waves can be .618 of 1, .618 of 1-3, 1.618 of 1, 1.618 of 3 etc etc... as you can see, admittedly a joke to try and predict. That said... at a BARE minimum... .618 of 1.62 (3rd wave) would be about 97 cents or so.... 26.91 plus 97 is 27.88... filling a gap I've talked about before.... In summary... QQQ to 27.88 minimal.... and likely 28.57 to 28.77 which are my favored near term tops to short. Most bullish charts after a pullback are CSCO, NXTL, ORCL, ESST, SUNW (under review), YHOO. If SUNW breaks 3.12, she could see 2.75.... today I sold off a big chunk at 3.33 when she went the wrong way at a 4 cents loss... holding others bought at 3.26 to 3.29 yet.... I purchased a fair amount of NXTL today at 13.79 to 13.90. She is not yet extended fully.... and has been in a running flat 4th wave for months on end now.... normally that would break out after 7th or 11 th wave in channel.... I cant quite figure out if its finished 7 and heading up and onward now... or am I counting 10, and 11 down is left... then up.... Either way, intermediately, NXTL will take a run at 20. Hope that helps... SG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 I moost say looking at the SMegH, things do not look too good for our old friend boolly. I suggest another gap down looks likely. Sometimes these gaps take a long time to fill. Now we got at least 2 up there to 28 to fill. All these gaps make me nervous. So nervous I covered. I think in retrospect, big misteak. Bool looks forward to further bar-b-quing. I just love the talk about the extended bullmarket rallies (6 months to 2 years) we always get just before the market tanks. But don't worry as we see improvement in the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiddMarket Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 Thank you for posting, SG. Right or wrong I appreciate your take on the market. I swear, if SG posted only "good evening everyone", some stoolie in Moscow would take offense and post back that he's wrong, it's morning over here. Thank you everyone here for a great community. The more opinions, the more I learn. And hopefully when the "bet" is over, it will be won and lost graciously and will never ever be mentioned again by anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted April 26, 2003 Author Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 I'd vote for one more small leg up. MSFT, CSCO, and GE are the warning signals. They want to make one more move higher. Note the MSFT triangle formation. Triangles typically break off the wrong way at first (north) before the proper direction resumes (down). I bet the Supermodel gap gets filled, which will really freak everybody out. All sentiment indicators are fully maxed, except the S & P Bullish Percent, which, according to scottcardiff, need to get a little more extended. Sentiment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oilman Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 Help!! I am addicted to this site and I pay for this addiction. This is the best site I have seen or been on due to the generous stoolies sharing their thoughts on the subject of investing speculating, gambling (hehe). The risk/reward thing is screeming short and so I did last week. I was bleeding until the last two days. I say we have a down week next week as it is our turn up to bat, lets not strike out! Thank you Doc. Oilman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 You know I wondered for a long, long time who the guy was on the long side when I shorted Nextel-now I know! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThorAss Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 Let's play nice in here. Some of the children are too scared to come to this playground anymore. And remember if you must bring your bulldog to Bear Park, be nice, always use a lead and if it poops, scoop. :wink2: I think you know what I'm talkin' about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injured Grizzly Posted April 26, 2003 Report Share Posted April 26, 2003 " But don't worry as we see improvement in the second half. " I agree. I get real tired listening to those talking butt's on Crapvision saying it will get better in the 2nd half. It like a broken record with them. Been hearing it for the last 2 year and this fall it will be three. At some point they will be right but not until this market has flushed every last overpriced stock or over paid turd down the crapper. There is a long way to go in this bear market yet and we've only just begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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