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Nail In The Fence


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From last Thursday's IDS:

 

. . . The bottom line here is that feelings matter and, in fact, are most important and unless this basic fact of life is respected we will, in time, no longer exist as a community. . .
Something I learned at Bell Labs years ago when setting up Senior Level Management with a Lotus Notes Discussion board.

 

Discussion Thread Etiquette Rules

 

They must be defined and enforced . . .

I, like many others here, am deeply saddened by SG's departure. He was someone who contributed a great deal of his time, effort and self to the community. And, yes, I also appreciated his brash, sometimes outrageous, writing style.

 

But here, as with all communication, no matter how valuable the communication, the communicator does have certain social responsibilities consistent with his/her being a member of a group.

 

Analagous to the rule of law.

 

Without which things would eventually degenerate to something akin to what was going on in Tombstone prior to the arrival of the Earp Brothers.

 

What prompted this opening was something Nancy received over the weekend from a woman she knows which shows the ultimate consequences of careless communication (loss of temper being only one specific example), something I hope can reduce or eliminate the polarization that occurred here because of what happened last Thursday.

 

The thought has crossed my mind that my finding this at this time was more than just coincidence. And on Good Friday, no less.

 

Hopefully this will serve as a learning experience for all of us as well as provide closure on this particular issue.

 

NAIL IN THE FENCE

 

There once was a little girl who had a bad temper. Her mother gave her a bag of nails and told her that every time she lost her temper, she must hammer a nail into the back of the fence.

 

The first day the girl had driven 37 nails into the fence. Over the next few weeks, as she learned to control her anger, the number of nails hammered daily gradually dwindled down. She discovered it was easier to hold her temper than to drive those nails into the fence.

 

Finally the day came when the girl didn't lose her temper at all. She told her mother about it and the mother suggested that the girl now pull out one nail for each day that she was able to hold her temper. The days passed and the young girl was finally able to tell her mother that all the nails were gone. The mother took her daughter by the hand and led her to the fence.

 

She said, "You have done well, my daughter, but look at the holes in the fence. The fence will never be the same. When you say things in anger, they leave a scar just like this one." You can put a knife in a person and draw it out. It won't matter how many times you say "I'm sorry", the wound is still there. A verbal wound is as bad as a physical one . . .

 

Food for thought, huh?

 

Not just for Simple Guy but for all of us.

 

And not just here but in all areas of our lives.

 

And it would be appropriate that any extended replies to this OC be posted elsewhere in town, like at the SG (Memorial?) Forum.

 

bdaycake.gif And Happy Birthday to stormydaze, who celebrates today.

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Issues with damage control

 

American Airlines faces bankruptcy concerns again this week -- just days after avoiding Chapter 11 -- as unions for its flight attendants, ground workers and mechanics threaten to pull back concessions in anger at lucrative payment plans for American Airlines' top brass. Parent AMR Corp. ended at $5.

 

Down .61 to 4.35 on Island at 8:35.

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My indicator oscillator is now in the area of past tops. It is at a 2.61. From the bearish perspective, I am concerned with the relative low reading of the Bullish Percent (48.8) and the relative high reading of the 20Day Trin (1.33). At previous tops, these indicators were at much more bearish levels.

 

So why is the oscillator giving a reading of a top? Because the VIX is deeply Dover Sole and the Daily PC ratio on Friday was a .52.

 

In summary, even though the oscillator is signalling that a top is close, I will be waiting for lower highs, a spike into the 1530 area, or more extreme numbers on the bullish percent and 20day TRIN readings before shorting.

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Guest bidhitter

Today is day 14 of the current up cycle and with a possibility of 2 days left in this cycle, we could be seeing a down day today or tomorrow or both. All indices are nearing major resistance again so we could see a rejection today.

 

ES Keeping it above 887 should allow for a push to 893 and 897. Look for sellers to emerge here. A blow out here and we head for 905 area. Trading back below 887 and we try for 883 and 880 support. Below 880 and we march back down to 877 and 875. Neutral trading zone is 887 to 893.

 

NQ Continue trading above 1076 should target 1089 and 1095. This is big overhead and could cause a sell of from here. A blow through 1095 and we target 1104 and 1109. 1115 and 1125 are the extended targets. Trading back below 1076 gets the 100 to ratchet down to 1067 and 1061. Look for buyers to step in here. Only below 1054 do the bears sink in. Expect neutral trading between 1076 and 1095.

 

Dow A move back above 8330 get the bulls going again for 8350 and 8410. Only above here do the bulls target 8500 resistance. A move back below 8280 and the bears try to to take it down to 8265 and 8250. Only below 8250 do the bears get the grip down to 8200. Expect a bounce here. Neutral trading between 8290 and 8330.

 

We are nearing the end of this cycle and with Ds moving back up to o/b, we could see this cycle end within the next day or 2.

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