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Patience Is Better Than Judgment


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B4, gotta cut back on # of posts.  Its getting too much in the way of my life/work/trading.

 

I'm playing it Rayok style from now on.  Not second guessing the short term crap...its irrational, unpredictable, and small cheese compared to the big pic.

 

I did my business back on Dec 3rd.  Done until hell is reached.

 

To me, shouting more rally ahead is like shouting "fire" on the sinking Titanic.

 

I will NOT be an irresolute bear, that should not be mistaken for being a perma-bear.

 

Think 1985 but only in reverse because that's where we are right now (irresolute bulls were shaken out and missed the bull run b/c of the bullshit that preceded it).

. . . like shouting "fire" on the sinking Titanic.

 

I like that, Pile.

 

What an elegant turn of phrase!

 

Rolls nicely off the tongue too.

 

I'm going to put that one in my Treasure Chest. :)

 

Those of you who find the intraday and short term environment challenging might want to consider taking a page out of Pile's book.

 

When you feel conditions have become irrational and unpredictable then that's your signal to simply bypass them by either taking a break for now or lengthening your time horizons until the activity in The Asylum quiets down to a dull roar again.

 

Which it will.

 

Eventually.

 

Which brings to mind yet another one of the Sayings of Chairman Sam, my boss:

 

Patience is better than judgment.

 

 

And two stoolies who have been with us exactly one year today get The Burning Candle this morning: :grin:

an2.gifHappy Anniversary, riff.

an2.gifHappy Anniversary, Bearman.

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The indicator oscillator which I outlined Monday reads 3.00, down from 3.33 at yesterday's open. In the past, 2.5 area has marked tops and 8-9 area has marked bottoms.

 

The nine components, their score (1-10, 1 being extreme overbought), and change from yesterday.

 

1. SP500 Bullish Percent. 4.50. No change as BP still at 48.

2. Nas stocks over 50 MA. 3.00. No change as indicator moved from 881 to 877.

3. P/C ratio. 3.50. Down from a 6.50. Daily P/C ratio at .66 from .87.

4. 21 day P/C. 2.50. Reading of .81.

5. VIX/VXN/QQV 1.00. No change. All volatility indexes reached double top targets, so this stays 1.00.

6. AA Bull/Bear ratio 2.50 No change. Very little change in this weeks reading Difference of 20 (50-30)

7. 5 Day TRIN 3.00 No change as 5Trin moved from 1.08 to 1.00.

8. 20 Day TRIN 5.50. No change. Reading of 1.35 up from 1.30.

9. TICK 60 Min. 20 MA 1.50 Drop from 2.00. Reading of 455 from 468.

 

Total score 3.00 Drop from 3.33

 

Summary. Drop in score is divergent with move down in market. We experienced some "panic buying yesterday AM, as the Daily PC ratio saw a rating of 1.00 (.43 PC), the 5Day Trin saw a rating of 1.00 (5Trin of .80) and the TICK60min20MA saw a rating of 1.00 (over 500). This resulted in a score at the open yesterday of 2.50, which is when the market promptly sold off rather hard.

 

The Trin readings and Bullish percent levels may continue to be the bane of shorts in the short term. The 5DayTrin will be dropping low scores for the next 4 days, so this rating should actually move up. The Trin readings are still too high. When we do get lower Trin readings, this indicator should drop to the mid-2's. I'd still be cautious if the SP Bullish Percents don't move into the 60's, as I'd like to see a high peak or at least a turn before I got bearish. (edit: same thing I wrote yesterday).

 

Yesterday, I wrote, "Today, I would like to see either Very low Trin readings and/or a very low P/C ratio before shorting/selling. The 5 Day TRIN is set to drop off a relatively high reading, so if this morning shows a low TRIN, that would move to a 1.00, moving the indicator to 3.11, all other things being consistent."

 

That proved to be a accurate indicator of a top, at least in the short term

 

Today, I'd have to say I'll probably stand aside, unless the P/C ratio gives a good signal (very low or very high). Also being scam day, who knows.

 

I'll update this AM

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See BS Marketcrotch:

 

The closely watched four-week average of initial jobless benefits requests rose to its highest mark in 11 months, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week average stood at 424,750, a gain of 3,500. For just the week ended April 12, jobless claims rose 30,000 to 442,000, erasing nearly all of the decline from the previous week. A Labor official said auto industry layoffs influenced the latest results. The number of Americans who remained on benefits rolls for the week ending April 5 rose 76,000 to 3.574 million. The seasonally adjusted four-week average of continuous claims rose 9,750 to 3.525 million, the highest since the week ended Nov. 23. The insured unemployment rate held at 2.8 percent.

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Will not be at the computer until this afternoon. I put in an order to short XLNX at 26.74. They report after the bell today. My sale of my long from last Friday (23.97) went through at 25.76. yesterday.

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If everything is so Fineeee. Why is the Dow down on the year?

 

The last 3 yrs have been down :lol:

 

Gee wis buying time is almost up :o

 

Would you believe more bulls than Bears for the last 6 months

 

Thats why 90% of people lose $$$ in the mk

 

:lol: WALKAWAY IN MAY :lol:

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The indicator oscillator which I outlined Monday reads 3.00, down from 3.33 at yesterday's open. In the past, 2.5 area has marked tops and 8-9 area has marked bottoms.

 

Can you perhaps post a graph with the S&P say on top and your indicator on the bottom over a reasonably long period of time. I think it would be very instructive and may provide some good discussion points in an effort to improve the indicator.

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