Oyster Posted April 16, 2003 Report Share Posted April 16, 2003 Rise and Shine......added position shorts at 902.50 on scale up sell from 891....looking to hold shorts with luck into summer....if not ce la vie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tchaikofsky Posted April 16, 2003 Report Share Posted April 16, 2003 CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: MARCH 2003 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.6 percent in March, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The March level of 184.2 (1982-84=100) was 3.0 percent higher than in March 2002. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) also increased 0.6 percent in March, prior to seasonal adjustment. The March level of 180.3 was 3.2 percent higher than in March 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oyster Posted April 16, 2003 Report Share Posted April 16, 2003 I intend to continue to scale up sell into positions the idea being this is a 2 to 3 month trade.....it's very difficult to do but anyhow here is trying....basically reopening the longterm short covers from lows around March 12th Average short so far 895.50 ESM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted April 16, 2003 Report Share Posted April 16, 2003 0.3% is not better than expected. Liesman is excited - of course - what a knucklehead. Remove energy= deflation bearing down on us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 16, 2003 Report Share Posted April 16, 2003 I just ran cmaps on the all sessions fucutures for all cycles from 5 hours up to 13 days. All point to 900-905. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottcardiff Posted April 16, 2003 Report Share Posted April 16, 2003 The indicator oscillator which I outlined Monday reads 3.33, down from 3.50 at yesterday's open. In the past, 2.5 area has marked tops and 8-9 area has marked bottoms. The nine components, their score (1-10, 1 being extreme overbought), and change from yesterday. 1. SP500 Bullish Percent. 4.50. No change as BP moved up to 48 from 47. 2. Nas stocks over 50 MA. 3.00. No change as indicator moved from 861 to 881. 3. P/C ratio. 6.50. Up from a 5.50. Daily P/C ratio at .87 from a .80. 4. 21 day P/C. 2.50. Up from a 2.00. Reading of .81 up from .80. Splitting hairs in raising the rating. 5. VIX/VXN/QQV 1.00. Drop from a 2.00. All volatility indexes reached double top targets, so this moves to a 1.00. 6. AA Bull/Bear ratio 2.50 No change. Changes once/week. Difference of 20 (51-31) 7. 5 Day TRIN 3.00 Drop from a 5.00 as reading moved from 1.19 to 1.08. 8. 20 Day TRIN 5.50 Up from 5.00. Reading of 1.30 up from 1.28. 9. TICK 60 Min. 20 MA 1.50 Drop from 2.00. Reading of 468 from 440. Total score 3.33 Drop from 3.50 Summary. Drop in score is consistent with move up in market. This indicator oscillator obviously needs some panic buying to move into sell territory. The Trin readings are too high, and we haven't had any "caution to the wind" low P/C days for quite a while. When we do get lower Trin readings, this indicator should drop to the mid-2's. I'd still be cautious if the SP Bullish Percents don't move into the 60's, as I'd like to see a high peak or at least a turn before I got bearish. (edit: same thing I wrote yesterday). Yesterday, I wrote, "Until we get a peak low score in the 2's or we see some signs of distribution, I plan to buy dips." Today, I would like to see either Very low Trin readings and/or a very low P/C ratio before shorting/selling. The 5 Day TRIN is set to drop off a relatively high reading, so if this morning shows a low TRIN, that would move to a 1.00, moving the indicator to 3.11, all other things being consistent. I'll update this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strikerm3 Posted April 16, 2003 Report Share Posted April 16, 2003 I hope your wrong this time Oyster for obvious reasons. Heard this idea earlier as a possible catalyst. Not really sold on it myself...but I wont fight the tape.. good luck. the combo MS Windows and Intel's Centrino should be released soon. Upside move coming soon, as early as tomorrow. hmmmm.... I have also heard the government is fixing to do some major computer upgrades. Its an election year, etc. and Bush is ready to write checks! ............TA wize I dont see it but it seems very possible ignoring VIX, VXN, etc, etc......just ideas, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclist Posted April 16, 2003 Report Share Posted April 16, 2003 Rise and Shine......added position shorts at 902.50 on scale up sell from 891....looking to hold shorts with luck into summer....if not ce la vie! Thanks Oy where do you stop. 930 say? Rich Russell is close to a dow theory buy. some elliot wavers, sg think we could go explosively higher. Lowry's reports selling pressure is abating (No buying pressure, just less selling pressure) Europe bourses breaking out (theyre due to correct but...) I think we are on a crux personally and one should just follow the trend. Unfortunately I'm out next week and don't want to take a big position but I fear (as always) I'll be missing good opportunities (alas :cry: ) Good luck to everyone today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted April 16, 2003 Report Share Posted April 16, 2003 All point to 900-905. I hope babooom follows. Been waiting to "load the boat" for months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiefywiefy Posted April 16, 2003 Report Share Posted April 16, 2003 I expected a huge MFST/INTC market ramp up today. This is the best it can do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted April 16, 2003 Report Share Posted April 16, 2003 Nasty weekly with candles and ribbon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted April 16, 2003 Report Share Posted April 16, 2003 Spot the CPI trend: CPI All Items Sep 0.2 Oct 0.2 Nov 0.1 Dec 0.1 Jan 0.3 Feb 0.6 Mar 0.3 Energy Sep 0.4 Oct 1.4 Nov -0.5 Dec -0.4 Jan 4.0 Feb 5.9 Mar 4.6 We know energy prices have collapsed in April. My "back of the envelope" projections for CPI All Items: April: 0.1 May: -0.2 - DEFLATION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeerMarket Posted April 16, 2003 Report Share Posted April 16, 2003 Tanks Doc and Oy, given the positive spin put on tech warnings, the fact that we're not having a huge gap up this morning may be another sign of a top. short term mostly short tech and long gold here. Still some dry powder, but will be patient with that in case this thing gets really out of hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oyster Posted April 16, 2003 Report Share Posted April 16, 2003 I just ran cmaps on the all sessions fucutures for all cycles from 5 hours up to 13 days. All point to 900-905. Doc....same for my studies..... :grin: :grin: :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearman Posted April 16, 2003 Report Share Posted April 16, 2003 I just ran cmaps on the all sessions fucutures for all cycles from 5 hours up to 13 days. All point to 900-905. Doc....same for my studies..... :grin: :grin: :grin: WOW WHAT A TEAM! I am behind you all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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