Tchaikofsky Posted April 15, 2003 Report Share Posted April 15, 2003 Tanks for the "timely" updates BB. You are very welcome Believe it or not, I use the posts as my personal journal. I read it helps (and it does) writing down what you think. I just write it in front of an audience BB: Tanks also from a rank amateur. Although I can't always understand what you're saying. Anyway, might your timeframe be off by an hour like Oy's were? Daylight savings or something like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted April 15, 2003 Report Share Posted April 15, 2003 Although the market sure seems like it wants to push higher from here, the problem I have putting faith in SG's count is that it would require Doc's analysis to be pretty "wrong". And I'm not comfortable with that. Call it a case of cognitive dissonance. Add that I can understand Hurst cycles. I am finally reading Hurst's book. What a blast! Especially so after hanging out here for a while and having Doc's work as sort of an introduction and molding process so that Hurst makes a great deal of sense. The book is very easy to read, I don't quite understand how other stoolies found it hard to get through. Then again, my brain is now trained to view the market in a cyclical sense, which started with stochastics reading, and now I view the whole market as waves within waves, which have absolutely NOTHING to do with Elliott waves, thank God. Funny, initially Doc's work was hard to grasp, and I didn't understand the half of it. The good news is that I came to Doc's work unspoiled and unsullied by other forms of technical analysis, though all of them are prevalent here at Stoolville. I view everything in the market as cycles within cycles, for example, a 13-day cycle consisting of seperate 8-day and 5-day cycles, with the 8-day cycle first and exhibiting more amplitude and duration, followed by the 5-day cycle which is of less amplitude and duration, though these two cycles together would comprise a 13-day cycle. Cycles nested within cycles. Lots of them. Take a 5-day cycle and break into, say, a 3-day and 2-day cycle. Look at a fresh 8-day cycle. I see a strong 5-day and then a 3-day. Amplitudes and durations WITHIN amplitudes and durations. Ya gotta love this shit! That is the only way I view the market in a visualization sense. Reading Hurst's book is now a walk in the park as that is how my brain is now trained. I do have an open mind for relevances that other TA display, especially so with Oyster's lunar lines and other goodies, but I still primarily view the price movement of stocks and/or index in a cyclical sense. The concern for the six-seven week oscillator turning up right now is nothing more than the influence of scam week special, best viewed cyclicaly as the behavior of the 4-week cycle, which generally is less dominant than the 6.5 week, though the 4-week makes it's one dominant ripple in price action during this one time of the month, and the rest of the 4-week cycle would be dominated by the 6.5 week cycle. So there is a suitable scam week explanation, at least it works for me. Buddhadropping should acknowledge that scam week can be explained in a Hurst manner very easily, so there is, after all, a form of TA that can handle scam week very easily, and once scam week is underway it is VERY simple to pick out the DOMINANT stochastic and ride it till it fails. Now everyone should quit poking fingers in Doc's eye and subscribe to the Anals of Stock Proctology and buy the Hurst book. The only catch, in my opinion, is that one can ONLY use Hurst methodolgy in visualization because once somebody second guesses their Hurst results of prognistication, by the influence of Elliott or earnings season reports, or historical event noise like wars, then undoubtedly poor results will be obtained. View it cyclicaly and have some faith in ones conclusions and filter OUT the noise. I still have a lot to learn and need software to play with some amazing shit I am learning about. One step at a time. And have some fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted April 15, 2003 Report Share Posted April 15, 2003 Drano, GM looks pinned at 35. Since GM is a crowded short (factor that into your trading) it tends to act like a supermodel during one day wonders. Usually moving 4-4.5%. Thats when I usually add to my position. I added $35 Jun puts yesterday. Also, because it is a crowded short I tend to cover often so I don't get caught short into a 4%+ day. At this point it looks like expiration might be down from here. So you can hold off until Monday and probably get the same exact price on GM. On the othe rhand there is sizeable open interest @900 spoos. Which may afford you the opportunity to short a spike. My strategy would be to be patient short into any spike or short at these levels after expiration. Of course this is only an opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackbelt Posted April 15, 2003 Report Share Posted April 15, 2003 Anyway, might your timeframe be off by an hour like Oy's were? Daylight savings or something like that? The chart I posted earlier today (15m ES) had a 12:15 potential time turn. The high so far was on the 11:45 bar. I use pivot highs and lows to project the time into the future and that is not affected by daylight savings. The only thing that can affect my projections is me ..that means that I picked the wrong pivots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted April 15, 2003 Report Share Posted April 15, 2003 Although the market sure seems like it wants to push higher from here, the problem I have putting faith in SG's count is that it would require Doc's analysis to be pretty "wrong". And I'm not comfortable with that. Call it a case of cognitive dissonance. Liquidity drives the market. Look at M1 in Docs annals. Silly old man can pump much as he like. If there are no takers then what can he do. Just look at Japan. greenless just does not put money out there, he uses the gang of 22 to buy msft, spy, dia, qqq and what else he needs for him, If the gangs don?t get any bid then they will use the money somewhere else. Today I picked up some shorts for long term and will pick more up if they can get it higher. Risk to reward in the bear camp for now. Volume is dropping which is bearish. Business I am in, we have been busy from Dec up till now, getting slack again. If Fart was with us still then he would have gave a better picture where his business was heading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackbelt Posted April 15, 2003 Report Share Posted April 15, 2003 Rog, A while back you mentioned CDWC...any comments on today's earnings? (there is an oustanding downside projection around 38) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted April 15, 2003 Report Share Posted April 15, 2003 Goldmember, Did you get through the last two chapters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted April 15, 2003 Report Share Posted April 15, 2003 Soup, I've been actively following and trading the markets for 5 years. I'm already proud of that accomplishment. Anyone who can go a few decades and still be intact is a hero. Art Cashin, any of these guys- to grow old in this biz is a massive feat in itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottcardiff Posted April 15, 2003 Report Share Posted April 15, 2003 Is it possible to ban the use of the term "bear market" until the 28 year uptrend channels in the major indexes are at least broken on a closing basis? Nascrap 12% for 28 years. SPuke and Dow Joke, 10% for 28 years. So far, technically speaking, we have had a 30 month correction in a 28 year uptrend. Amazing how much firepower has been exerted (rate cuts, war, etc.) simply to keep up hovering on the line. When they go, they should go fast. But it may be years before they go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearman Posted April 15, 2003 Report Share Posted April 15, 2003 doolar lod 10002 backed by huge debt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted April 15, 2003 Report Share Posted April 15, 2003 BB: From a fundamental view F Hickey ( who imo is the best tech anal cyst by a factor of 10) thinks either this quarter or next will be a disaster for cdwc. Stock still trades a big premium to the other stocks in its space. Fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApresMoi Posted April 15, 2003 Report Share Posted April 15, 2003 Liquidity drives the market. Look at M1 in Docs annals. Silly old man can pump much as he like. If there are no takers then what can he do. Just look at Japan. Yes. Look at Japan. In August 1992, 31 months after the Japanese bubble burst, the Nikkei hit an intermediate bottom. Over the next 12 months the Nikkei advanced by 50%. 31 months after our bubble burst is October 2002. Well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoodwinked Posted April 15, 2003 Report Share Posted April 15, 2003 BB Lack of clarity is still the dominant theme with the astros. It looks like "financial clarity" resumes on or about May 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearman Posted April 15, 2003 Report Share Posted April 15, 2003 A Breathless decline awaits! We all agree on that Don't get caught long this POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackbelt Posted April 15, 2003 Report Share Posted April 15, 2003 BB: From a fundamental view F Hickey ( who imo is the best tech anal cyst by a factor of 10) thinks either this quarter or next will be a disaster for cdwc. Stock still trades a big premium to the other stocks in its space. Fwiw. thanks much....very helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.