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A Moment Of Awakening . . .


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This is a short excerpt from contrary investors.com, it is a pay site, but I do not think they would mind the brief excerpt. "One last chart that we believe speaks volumes. In the following you are looking at absolute dollar personal consumption expenditures over the last 32 years. The red line is year over year annual rate of change in those expenditures. As you can see, after a brief pickup post the near September spike lows of last year recovering into 2002, the annual rate of change has again turned significantly south.






Annual rate of change experience currently rests near the lows of the early 1990's recession that also coincide with what we experienced immediately post September 11. Our humble question is "how can this be happening?" Apparently the official post recessionary economy is already one year old as of now. We have auto financing deals today that make the post September auto financing extravaganza appear as if the industry was just getting warmed up at the time. Never in the history of the US have households extracted so much "equity" from their personal real estate holdings than will be the case during the second half of 2002. Fed Funds are as low as anything seen in four decades. Deflation in foreign goods imports and massive price competition among domestic retailers has been a supposedly huge support to the potential for nominal consumer spending strength. As you know, the early 1990's experience offered none of these characteristics. Moreover, the unemployment rate today is all of 1.5% below what was seen in the early 1990's at personal consumption rate of change lows. And here we are left with an annual personal consumption expenditure rate of change presently near thirty year lows? Maybe household net worth does contribute to decision making regarding consumption at some point in every cycle. And just maybe the point in the current cycle is now. Consumption suggests as much and, at least for now, so does the recent consumer credit report.


From the deciphering Fedspeak department, today's statement post the no action FOMC conclave was ambiguous as usual. "The limited number of incoming economic indicators since the November meeting, taken together, are not inconsistent with the economy working its way through its current soft spot". Based on the above chart, we'd suggest the "work" has only just begun, if that.






















Copyright ContraryInvestor.com ? 2002

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SG chimes in


warned of a finger before market opened today


Have stayed in cash since Monday morning


Warned to wait for gap to fill on qqq-NDX


Said, I couldnt see a clear pattern so I stood aside.


Now you see why.... its a game, manager your positions or they will manage you...

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Sorry ano- It's fixed now.

doc did you see the test finger link? If you like the finger, I'll add a black definition border around the hand and clean up th image. noone said anything about the 'pull me' so far :) thanks to bontchev, we got the link working :)


<A HREF="http://www.capitalstool.com/music/hmrfart.wav" target=_blank><IMG SRC="http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/uploads/post-12-1039585316.gif" ALIGN="BOTTOM" ALT="Speakers ON" BORDER="0"></A>


example above

Ano I like the finger. It's also a nice compromise for the audio controversy. Now if you had that flying finger from Yellow Submarine...


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When I was clerking I did research for an ERISA litigation practice <_< . It's one of the most byzantine regulatory schemes around (ten pages of a single regulation turning on the phraseology of "may" or "must"...only serious wonk attorneys need apply).

As it stood (and still does as far as I know), company stock can be no greater than 10% of total pension fund assets nor can that funding be comprised of more than 25% of any class of shares.


Also, it's typically been a rubber stamp for a company to get regulatory approval to increase the 10% ceiling, rarely denied.

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ok, BRCM trigger dong @ 16.20 with initial stop @ 15.70, just below my S-1...... it is out of my hands for awhile now.


I should mention that I have a lot of BEARX, therefore, I would like all dongs to crash... these trades are for hedging and just general fun.

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