DrStool Posted December 11, 2002 Report Share Posted December 11, 2002 Charm- It's not early. Re-read the AM update re 5 hour high. The mkt is bullseye on the cycle map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fartpolio Manager Posted December 11, 2002 Report Share Posted December 11, 2002 Looking like a dead dog bounce... My hunch is they run it to 914-915 then let it drop from there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest soup1 Posted December 11, 2002 Report Share Posted December 11, 2002 This is a short excerpt from contrary investors.com, it is a pay site, but I do not think they would mind the brief excerpt. "One last chart that we believe speaks volumes. In the following you are looking at absolute dollar personal consumption expenditures over the last 32 years. The red line is year over year annual rate of change in those expenditures. As you can see, after a brief pickup post the near September spike lows of last year recovering into 2002, the annual rate of change has again turned significantly south. Annual rate of change experience currently rests near the lows of the early 1990's recession that also coincide with what we experienced immediately post September 11. Our humble question is "how can this be happening?" Apparently the official post recessionary economy is already one year old as of now. We have auto financing deals today that make the post September auto financing extravaganza appear as if the industry was just getting warmed up at the time. Never in the history of the US have households extracted so much "equity" from their personal real estate holdings than will be the case during the second half of 2002. Fed Funds are as low as anything seen in four decades. Deflation in foreign goods imports and massive price competition among domestic retailers has been a supposedly huge support to the potential for nominal consumer spending strength. As you know, the early 1990's experience offered none of these characteristics. Moreover, the unemployment rate today is all of 1.5% below what was seen in the early 1990's at personal consumption rate of change lows. And here we are left with an annual personal consumption expenditure rate of change presently near thirty year lows? Maybe household net worth does contribute to decision making regarding consumption at some point in every cycle. And just maybe the point in the current cycle is now. Consumption suggests as much and, at least for now, so does the recent consumer credit report. From the deciphering Fedspeak department, today's statement post the no action FOMC conclave was ambiguous as usual. "The limited number of incoming economic indicators since the November meeting, taken together, are not inconsistent with the economy working its way through its current soft spot". Based on the above chart, we'd suggest the "work" has only just begun, if that. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Copyright ContraryInvestor.com ? 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 11, 2002 Report Share Posted December 11, 2002 A great gift for your fellow bears, and other co-workers in the biz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest soup1 Posted December 11, 2002 Report Share Posted December 11, 2002 It continues to blow me away, how so many can be so bullish? I guess it speaks volumes about hope? Notice the inflows to m.f.'s have died but there is no real selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 11, 2002 Report Share Posted December 11, 2002 Right shoulder, under construction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stutz Posted December 11, 2002 Report Share Posted December 11, 2002 Doc, given where you called the low on IDS, has the one day high moved right in time, that is advanced clockwise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted December 11, 2002 Report Share Posted December 11, 2002 SG chimes in warned of a finger before market opened today Have stayed in cash since Monday morning Warned to wait for gap to fill on qqq-NDX Said, I couldnt see a clear pattern so I stood aside. Now you see why.... its a game, manager your positions or they will manage you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 11, 2002 Report Share Posted December 11, 2002 soupy- too long for this board and not trading related. Put it on LOB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiddMarket Posted December 11, 2002 Report Share Posted December 11, 2002 Doc- I just had to cheep in: I saw your anals this morning and promptly closed out my shorts- just in time. Bless you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted December 11, 2002 Report Share Posted December 11, 2002 Sorry ano- It's fixed now. doc did you see the test finger link? If you like the finger, I'll add a black definition border around the hand and clean up th image. noone said anything about the 'pull me' so far thanks to bontchev, we got the link working <A HREF="http://www.capitalstool.com/music/hmrfart.wav" target=_blank><IMG SRC="http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/uploads/post-12-1039585316.gif" ALIGN="BOTTOM" ALT="Speakers ON" BORDER="0"></A> example above Ano I like the finger. It's also a nice compromise for the audio controversy. Now if you had that flying finger from Yellow Submarine... :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockhead Posted December 11, 2002 Report Share Posted December 11, 2002 There goes LOW...............busted 60 minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest soup1 Posted December 11, 2002 Report Share Posted December 11, 2002 Sorry doc. /// Sg, please rest assured that there others who use weakness/strength to adjust postions. Myself, I am winding down for the holiday season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mies van der Rump Posted December 11, 2002 Report Share Posted December 11, 2002 Jorma; When I was clerking I did research for an ERISA litigation practice <_< . It's one of the most byzantine regulatory schemes around (ten pages of a single regulation turning on the phraseology of "may" or "must"...only serious wonk attorneys need apply). As it stood (and still does as far as I know), company stock can be no greater than 10% of total pension fund assets nor can that funding be comprised of more than 25% of any class of shares. Also, it's typically been a rubber stamp for a company to get regulatory approval to increase the 10% ceiling, rarely denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sniff Posted December 11, 2002 Report Share Posted December 11, 2002 ok, BRCM trigger dong @ 16.20 with initial stop @ 15.70, just below my S-1...... it is out of my hands for awhile now. I should mention that I have a lot of BEARX, therefore, I would like all dongs to crash... these trades are for hedging and just general fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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