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April 7, 2003 -- Talk about being robbed blind.

 

This smiling Virginia bank executive told The Post he was totally oblivious to the robber pulling a heist behind his back as a photographer shot this picture for an alumni magazine.

 

In Full

 

an2.gifAnd Happy Anniversary to NV 375 who has been with us one year today.

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Thanx to Stoolville, with all my heartfelt gratitude, for the kind wishes yesterday in my family's time of mourning.

 

I look forward to next week or so as a return to the markets, with an increased edge that a small fry player like me needs to succeed in these markets today.

 

Best to all, and most importantly, Happy Trading! :D

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Oy, Ned bon jour... a great sense of unease in the air at this hour. This is the first futures ramp failure in a while, though we've got a few hours left for them to grease the skids. The unease is more war related than economic, as the former might be a better excuse for the imminent sell-off.

 

My personal concern is that we (USA) are burying too many empty coffins. Bin Laden, Saddam, Chemical Ali, etc...all objects of media villification which too easily vanish from radar before the deal is done. Former state/enemies like Afghanistan, Serbia and (soon) Iraq, easily forgotten. As is the Debt. As is the Unemployment. As is a growing list of bankruptcies.

 

Like Huck Finn, all are alive to see their funeral. Much of the public malaise involves a fear of the large group of decaying Living Dead People which we will have to deal with when we open the closet door.

 

They are creating quite a stink, are they not?

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against swing shorts average 896 I have taken a small scalp long at 883 here

Oy

 

without giving away any of your proprietary secrets, I am trying to understand these trades.

 

you have scalp trades and swing trades. I presume you have "position" trades as well.

 

If a position is 100%, what sort of %'s do swing and scalp trades take.

 

I presume you are short given 840 target you posted yesterday.

 

Thanks again. Its a pleasure to have you post here.

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WHOPsaw Day and The Stool Wave Principle 4/7/03

Monday was probably the final exhaustion move in the rally. Doc thinks the market is within days of beginning a catastrophic decline that will last for months with only brief interruptions.

 

The market's recent pattern is an example of the Stool Wave Principle, which holds that a top formation has exactly 11 waves, of certain mathematical proportions in time and price, based on Fiber Nacho reflux relationships. Don't worry, if you can't find the 11 waves, just start at the top and work your way back.

 

Doc expounds on the Stool Wave Principle, reveals the current count (it's 11), and chronicles the short, intermediate, and long term market cycles, with hot pictures of naked stock charts, the Long Bong Hit, Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool. Drop by your stock proctologist's office, and get the inside picture, all in the Anals tonight.

Stoolies, log one in. If you're not a stoolie already, become one Now! And don't forget to join Doc during the market day in Stooltrading Beta as he plots the market's twists and turns for you, in advance yet!

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Crystal Ball Consensus

 

Tim Ord for April 7

http://www.marketweb.com/commentary/ord0408.htm

 

Today the S&P cash tested the previous high set on 3/21 (895.89) on lighter volume and is a bearish sign. The "Percent volume" indicator closed today at .63 and in bearish territory. The "5 day ARMS" closed at 4.5 and in bearish territory. Therefore for short term the S&P is extended. The bigger picture still appears bullish, but the short-term scenario implies a pull back starting near current levels. Support lies near the 845 level and a pull back to that level may materialize over the near term.

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against swing shorts average 896 I have taken a small scalp long at 883 here

Oy

 

without giving away any of your proprietary secrets, I am trying to understand these trades.

 

you have scalp trades and swing trades. I presume you have "position" trades as well.

 

If a position is 100%, what sort of %'s do swing and scalp trades take.

 

I presume you are short given 840 target you posted yesterday.

 

Thanks again. Its a pleasure to have you post here.

swings are basically full hedge against the long term position...hedging and reopening...sometimes weight is more on swings........I am still trying to finesse as i said before mixing is very difficult psychologically to do...scalping is very small.

 

yesterday was dumb from me...I have swing shorts on board but not enough....but lost more than 50% of those positions yesterday through stupid long scalps and not cutting.....OK....locking in some profits but not what I wanted...that's why I try to avoid scalping around position entries.....cardinal rule broken yesterday....

 

what has spooked me yesterday is a possible 1 hour time shift which did not complete the pattern by the end of the day.

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Oy

 

So you don't think this thing has topped then?

 

Your intraday GET chart was picture perfect.

Many have called yesterdays high the top of wave 2 now looking for hard 3 down.

For me it sort of looks convincing. Hourly macd's which help me with the swings look like they are toopy and about to head lower. The Mclellan oscillator as I see it on Bloomberg is in the way overbot territory.

 

I realize that things can get sillier to the upside and I will respect that with stops, but having made money being long, short now looks good to me. In the short run, it's hard to see the market making a lot of headway to the upside w/o consolidating for a while

 

If you get a chance, I'd love to see the hourly GET again. I suppose I will pay up soon and get Signal and the intraday version (sigh)

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