GregFokker Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 Once Iraq is "isolated" which means that the info coming out is totally US controled, Bush will declare the war over and Iraq liberated...even if the fighting continues, should happen soon... If not the market will go down. This weekend is critical... if the US loses the airport and the Iraqis brag, that will be a big blow... Only a few 100 soldiers and military vechicles made it there... this weekend should tell the tale... There are 600 embedded reporters in Iraq but there sure is not much coverage... New secular bull? I wish it were so...why do you think I say 11-15 months? It will take that long to finish most of you off and on the final plunge you will all be finished... the market will shut down and when It comes back your money will be gone... They can fake it all now... but they can't create consumers fast enough...Unless they start passing out credit cards in maternity wards... and what are the chances of that... I'm just not paying attention to the market as much lately... But nothing has changed... we are still rocketing to wild cornered animal stage... Hyper, I'll be right here. I'll be holding gold, silver, miners, and CEF, precious metals funds and commodity futures funds. Cash, camping gear, and plenty of fuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 Here is the TA forum I referenced... truly amazing Crazy stuff... 979 target on Q's, 4 weeks out early next week looks significant. thanks to gruff & doug for giving this the light of day. The idea of viewing the charts fractally might be obvious, but thanks for waking me up to it- brilliant charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 Doug Noland, the Credit Bubble guy at Prudent Bear, clearly is starting to change his tune... tonight he said he is opening up his eyes to the reliquification of the economy, and therefore he seems to be allowing for a possible big uptick on the economy that some aren't seeing... he thinks it all ends bad, but could postpone the day of reckoning.... you may want to read his diatribe tonight. FWIW, SG sold his Pru Bear fund early this past week, and moved the $$ into CPN at 3.40, sold at 4.07 for a 19% gain. Re-shuffled that same $$ into QQQ today at 26.05 for the next move up... I took the gloves off because it was time to start playing, and get off the bench on my IRA. ... more excerpts... I was under the impression that you were gaming the tape using Rydex funds only. Are you saying that you've actually been hedged all this time? What about when you sold out and got back in? Were you in the Pru Bear fund then too? As it's clearly your intention to have everyone here follow your trades, you might consider posting all of them in their entirety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapper John Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 Interesting? Stockcharts.com shows the island gap filled on QQQ. Dubious! $COMPQ looks correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mksloth Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 Desmond of Lowry's talking of a buy signal having been triggered Mar 17. He does say its not a new big bull market. Makes one wonder. The question on my mind is when will Doc, Oy, BB, and SG get on the same page? I'm talking about their intermediate term calls. Is that on or about May 13? Guess that would be the MOAPO. And then the question is, will there be just plain old sloshing till that point? Or are we going to see the fabled SPX 920 by then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 what if the mkt sells off on the war victory? ( Did anyone really think we would not prevail?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 Well it looks like organized resistance in Iraq is over so victory can be declared at any time. This could change but that is what it looks like now. This is good news for everyone, our troops and the Iraqis. As a war opponent I couldn't be happier that a near best case scenario seems to have happened. If this ain't bullish nothing is. It seems to fit into a high this month. That's what I've been holding out for, per Doc and others. If it's a new bull market then what's the rush to get in? Not that I think it is. Rather it would be the perfect scenario for getting everyone on board and the shorts cleaned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 I am seldom hedged (ala Jesse Livermore's admonition), but volatility has been advantageous to such postions of late. Was in ATM april calls/puts since the midweek ramp, none lost. Sold puts after opening drop, sold DJX calls at the close, bought at noon, after 60 point DOW swing. I use front month postions when scalping intraday. Not my normal trading pattern, just took a gamble on a couple of trading range days. Have a small SPX put position over the weekend. Every position recently has been small, yielding 10% or so after comissions. It adds up, though. Small commitments protect against rocket launches, if you are on the right side 3/4 of the time. I don't believe we'll get a huge drop OR rise anytime soon. "Victory" may be announced soon, but public realization of such will definitely lag and will be a process, not an event. Will the coalition find ALL the chemicals, will they find ALL the bios? No way to know. They could install Mr. Honesty, Jimmy Carter (tongue deep in cheek here), as Iraq president and the market wouldn't budge. The issue is the WMD, not the leadership. I tend to think as the process drags, we will see a swd instead of a swup. Just my $0.02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mksloth Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 Crapper John, your guy is on Fox right now. Making a few political points and deeming the market volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 I think the bulls better be careful for what they wish. If the war is over ( hopefully) then it is time to focus on reality , corporate profits ( non existent) and the economy ( in reccession on its way towards depression) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 Dashley-I am always nervous and ALWAYS CAREFUL only holding a few SPOO'S puts MAY 875's if I have to hedge or go LONG I will. But we are very close to a TOP-everyone is expecting a blowoff-that is a negative. Winning the war means squat-Iraq has to be pacified that will take a long, long, time and a ton of $. The markets have factored in a perfect SCENARIO. Soooo we shall see! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 From my weekend forum... just one of my 3 posts... FWIW Raptor research also IMO, has the wave call way off on Nasdaq... and I mean way off. Their labels ABC, and otherwise are clearly wrong IMO. They are calling for the 5 wave move we had this past week as end ending terminal wave, and we should now break down.... dont think so. The 5 wave move up was the beginning wave 1 of the C wave up. Wave 2 is done. Wave 3 up is next... and then watch them and EWI turn their tables fast... only it will be too late if you are a trader wont it?? The NAS , and QQQ wave patterns are different from the SP and the DOW in my opinion. Im going to also go out on a limb here, and suggest that the NAS will pick up relative strength vs the DOW and SP500 over the next near term period, also contrary to what Hochberg at EWI said last night... Why? Because the A B C 4th wave Im calling off the Oct low is in a larger degree ZIG ZAG pattern. ZIG ZAG ABC waves are characterized by sharp A wave up (to Dec 2), and milder B wave down that doesnt get anywhere near the Oct lows, and then another Sharp C wave up well above the A wave highs.... A flat correction ABC, is more like the pattern we have seen on the DOW and the SP500. Their B waves down were near their A wave bottoms... indicating, the C wave will top out about where the A wave did at best... and not go higher. So, look for DOW and SP500 to top at about their Dec 2 highs if that... and look for the NAS to go much higher than its Dec 2 highs... as in 1300 NDX possible and 1683 NAS possible.... Thinking here is 28.77 is hit before we correct this move down, then we go up yet again towards my higher cited numbers... I know this is out of the box takes on the NAS, and it doesnt make any sense fundamentally.... but Im not here to assess the fundamentals. Im here to assess the wave patterns and keep my emotions out.... I would put up a chart, but I've done that enough lately to state my case on the NAS and QQQ. 31-33 QQQ remains a real threat... 28.77 is almost nearly a definite minimal upside... We will find out who is right over the next 1-4 weeks window. I hope its me, and Stoolies profit from it... thats why we are here... Finally... the Stochastics have room for upside on the monthly NAS chart to a top, and the MACD line is converging into a bullish triange wedge formation as well... based on my knowledge of E waves and triangles... and based on the pattern... MACD should break out to the upside out of this wedge... which is bullish. Any short term earnings warnings and NAS tech stock drop offs will only add fuel to the coming fire... God I love being a contrarian... good weekend all... This week we should see 27.38 eclipsed, the March 21 high... that will turn some heads to the SG forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 I was flat for a few moments on Friday, and it felt wrong. If the market tanks out of the gate, I'll get some chicken feed. If it rallies, I'll get an entry for a swing short. My plan is to put on a midterm position at the next high, and then hedge on hedge off at support on the way down. The cmaps are the perfect roadmap. Just posted that and saw 31 QQQ? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 MKSLOTH Oyster, BB, and SG are basically bullish intermediate from what I can read. I think BB expects st downside Monday, whereas I dont at all... but Im not worried about monday morning... over 1-4 weeks is where Im focusing as best as I can. I dont think SP gets to 974 fwiw, 930 maybe.... its not the same ABC as the NAS is... the NAS is much more bullish for upside short term IMO... which I realize is contrary thinking... The selloffs on things like SEBL, NXTL, etc... are only going to attract buyers of that index. In addition, CSCO is about to bust up to a C wave high of 19-20 IMO, and they are a big player in the QQQ index... that move will drag some others with them upwards... rising tide lifts all boats... So I say anyhow, I dont know shit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted April 5, 2003 Report Share Posted April 5, 2003 Monday night ,SG in his waves thread... Few other notes Several MA TRIN indicators are going into extreme market Dover Sole conditions here... the blast down to 1320 tomorrow on the NAS would really toss them into highly Dover Sole conditions. Higher or equal to conditions seen in July and October of 2002, some of them are already there as of tonights close. These MA indicators of 21, 55, 4 day, 10 day etc have been very reliable indicators of broader market reversals in the past. This would coincide with SG's currently laughed at and scoffed at predictions of a C wave rally coming to higher than the March 21 highs... nobody that I can find on Stoolville believes this forecast.... Except maybe Bontchev, and maybe Blackbelt.... and yours truly. 28.77 is a fibo target I worked out tonight on the Q's for a C wave top... April 16th is roughly .618 fibo trading day wise in comparison to the A wave move off the Oct 9 lows.... in terms of duration of time frame of the move. A wave was about 7 weeks from Oct 9 to Dec 2..... C wave is about .618 of that move.... Bottoming on March 12... plus 4.2 weeks, is about April 16 plus or minus.... That should end the wave 4 corrective.... and lead to 5th wave down to new lows on all indices. Bradley model may be inverted.... April 3 plus or minus a low... APril 12 plus or minus a high... then down into July... We shall see... We ran up the next day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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