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richmtn

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Quite a day for the real Kodiaks. As expected the market headed lower at the open. Many including myself were looking for a bounce. It leveled off at mid-day. We waited for the big feed to kick in but then the chute didn't open. Who stole the parachute?

At three o'clock gravity took over and the index had a Nasty fall landing with a thud at the bell.

 

Yeah I know I'm no Mark. ;)

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We've moved Night Stool back over to the main board page for easier navigation. Please feel free to add what you want onto the thread. Only one rule on Night Stool.

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I updated the icon on the weakend night stool :) you can remove the anascope credit too :) (it's anoscope or just 'ol ano)

 

thanks for all the hard work ya'll do every night on the thread!

 

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Night Stool has begun intermediate-term analysis and trading. We hope this will be educational. As in we will learn together.

Remember we are all supposed to be big boys and girls here. Do you own homework. Your trades are your responsibility.

Please add your ideas, questions and input.

 

Over the next few days we will slowly get warmed up . This is going to be a top down approach. Emphasis will be on price based indicators although secondary indicators will be used for fine tuning and to give heads up.

 

 

This chart is from last night's thread. It is an attempt at the 5, 6, 7 and 10 year ROC's. I want to get comfortable with this to place us in time and space.

They seem to peak in 1999 and 2000. As we go along I will try to isolate the actual peaks. Of course with longer term cycles peaks can last for months or even years.

This is a weekly chart. I am using the S&P as it is easier to isolate the cycles. The Nasty is more difficult. In general these two indices move in sync so the S&P can be used as a proxy for the Nasty.

Check out that 10 year (250 ROC). Beautiful smooth curve and top. Check out the right side. Now starting to move below the zero line.

In case you are keeping score and think my math is whacked I use lengths approximately half of the desired period.

 

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Now I want to try to isolate the tops on each of these.

 

The ten year put in an extended top from first quarter 1999 to first quarter 2000. The last peak was 03/13/00, and 07/12/99 was the highest

 

The seven year had a double peak second quarter of 1998 with the highest on 04/13/98 and then another peak on 07/13/98 coinciding with a peak in the cash index.

 

The six year made a series of peaks, 10/06/97 thru 07/12/99 with 07/12/99 being the highest and coinciding with a major peak in the cash index. One peak occured 07/13/98 just prior to the '98 crash.

 

The five year also made a series of peaks with the last and highest on 01/25/99.

 

All of these peaked prior to the ultimate top of the cash index.

 

This is what I see using the ROC. When I get my new Metastock going I'll redo this exercise with the stochastics and other tools available.

post-2-1039493478_thumb.jpg

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A little self-promotion:

 

Patterns being what they are, the PMs is set for a major unexpected upside move tomorrow (Tuesday). I'm talking 5 - 10 Hewey points. Maybe as a result of a POG breakout. May not happen but let's face it, the patterns have been repeating themselves almost exactly as I've predicted lately including today's inside day (in the upper half of the previous day's range). Don't believe me, check out Dr. Gold's prediction over in the outhouse, I mean outpost. Come to where the flavour is, come to Stool's Gold.

 

Dr.Au

 

PS: Hi Rich, how they hangin'?

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Thor I'm so busy I don't know whether to sh*t or go blind.

Stoolies gold gleams no brighter than at Dr. Au's.

 

Stool's Gold

 

***********************************

 

Ano sorry about the misspelling and thanks again. Alceringa loved your work. :wink2:

 

***********************************

 

Patterns can often fail. What distinquishes one from another? It is the cycle charts.

Cycle charts

Without them you can't accurately predict which way any pattern will resolve. I believe Doc and Hurst back me up on that statement.

If you do not subscribe to Doc's Anal's you are going into battle without a very valuable weapon. If you do not subscribe to Doc's Anal's you are missing the most important thing on this site by an order of magnitute. The saying "penny wise and pound foolish" was never more apt.

For nothing you get me and I'm an idiot. :P

 

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How the Kondratieff Cycle Might Play Out

 

There is a very important point that many deflation advocates seem to be ignoring: Unlike Kondratieff winters of past eras, a modern Kondratieff winter does not necessarily have to follow in like fashion. I believe Ian Gordon and Robert Prechter are right about a winter coming, i.e., massive recessionary forces descending upon America and the world. We are confronting the end phase of the 60-70 year cycle that is now in its fourth repeat over the past 240 years. The fact that it must play out is, in my opinion, inevitable. But HOW it plays out is, by no means, set in stone. This is because we can now intervene with monetary and political policies that can alter the nature of the winter phase of the cycle. We can change its form.

 

Article On Gold-Eagle

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Last one then bed.

 

In honor of today we should contemplate the NASDUCK.

Daily chart showing the 10-13 week and 6-7 week cycles. Both headed lower. I drew some intermediate-term E-Waves or at least my idea of them. I like the butterfly.

Some think we are in a 3 of 3 which they claim is like stepping into an elevator shaft. We'll see.

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omiGOD it's so EXCITING! it's the NEW BULL MARKET!!!!

just LOOK at those FYOOOOOOOOOOTURES!!!!! :P :P :P :P

 

.... :) ....

 

... :mellow: ............

 

......

 

..... :blink: :blink: :blink:

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hope that futures topped out, cause i opened short position in DAX at 3103 this morning, now DAX at 3130, if futures topped, no problem for position, but if they saved monster style 7 billion feed from yesterday for using it today then MON DIEU! :angry:

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