PileDriver Posted March 28, 2003 Report Share Posted March 28, 2003 they first switched net short June 2000 or so http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/cot.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted March 28, 2003 Report Share Posted March 28, 2003 BARE, July 2003 is the time I have identified as the low of the bear move. Intermediate point of reference is May 2003. If May 2003 is a high and July 2003 a low, then the first leg of the bear (or if I might say....All the bear... ) is over. Based on some Gann stuff that I work on (cycles) "depression" similar to 1932 doesn't come until 2010 +/- If my interpretation of these "stuff" is correct (because everything is based on interpretation), then many will be caught by suprise to see the market near it's all time high again within 3-4 years. I discussed that 2010 date for the past three years with people. I'm glad we agree. The call to new highs or close to them is Neely's thought as well. I doubt nasdaq will succeed in that though. Peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted March 29, 2003 Report Share Posted March 29, 2003 Oy hASS been talking about July 29 ass having great cyclical? significance, too - a nadir fraught w sinister menace beyond mere market convulsion(s). BARE's birthday is the next day... Who knows what the next YEAR will bring let alone the next 3-4 years or 10 years!!! One DAY at a time, wot? a strong bull market in the next 3 - 4 years is entirely possible. Likely? Doesn't SEEM that way but little if ANYTHING in life is what it SEEMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strikerm3 Posted March 30, 2003 Report Share Posted March 30, 2003 If this is a net short to net long switch by the commercials, not sure it is the first switch long, you would want to wait for a pullback next week on the SPX, check the commercial position and go long if the commercials are still net long and the SPX dropped week to week. That is how the COT trade was explained to me. Don't go with the switch until the SPX pulls back and commercials still long. does this mean you need to wait till next friday t get the next report? just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 30, 2003 Report Share Posted March 30, 2003 July 2003 is the time I have identified as the low of the bear move. Intermediate point of reference is May 2003. A high in the April-June timeframe (most likely - the end of May), followed by a low (below the October lows) in the July-October timeframe (looks more like October to me - but I could be wrong; let it be July) agrees 100% with my own analysis. If May 2003 is a high and July 2003 a low, then the first leg of the bear (or if I might say....All the bear... ) is over. I would agree that this is possible. I disagree that this is likely. I think that it would take at least one more year to end this cyclical bear. Based on some Gann stuff that I work on (cycles) "depression" similar to 1932 doesn't come until 2010 +/- Technically, I very much disagree. In fact, I see 2010-2025 (more like 2017) as the end of the secular bear market. However, I can see some fundamental reasons for the real collapse to start in 2010+, so I'll concede this one as simply being too far ahead in time for me to see clearly. If my interpretation of these "stuff" is correct (because everything is based on interpretation), then many will be caught by suprise to see the market near it's all time high again within 3-4 years. Near its all-time high within 3-4 years? The NASDAQ?! No bloody way. Physically impossible. The Dow - maybe. The SPX? I'd be extremely surprised but I wouldn't rule it out as impossible. But the NASDAQ? It would require a maniacal bubble equivalent to the last one. Never have two bubbles followed each other so closely in the history of the markets. It ignores the tremendous overhead supply of those who held onto their long positions forever and are anxious to just "get even". No bloody way. Ain't gonna happen. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 30, 2003 Report Share Posted March 30, 2003 The fact that the commercials are net long is extermely bearish. See the my comments in Mark to Market and the Weak End Anals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted March 30, 2003 Report Share Posted March 30, 2003 That's good to hear, Doc. This bear will trip almost everybody up beFUR it's done with 'em. "Dead" (pardon the parlance in light of the parlous circumstance/times) ahead we have a test of: 1.) Commercials net long position 2.) EWave theory Lettuce c what The Fates, Three, decree FUR thee and me, shall we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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