DrStool Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 I have set this hourly chart of the ES, S&P 500 24 hour fuguetures, so that you can see the long term trendline extension from the January top through a couple of peaks on the way down. I'll give an overview of that, along with big picture implications, in Monday morning's Technical Trader update. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/technical-market-timing/ But for now we're looking at 4122 or so. The 5 day cycle projection also points to around 4120. The numbers to watch in the premarket are 4080 and 4085. Clearing those should ignite the rocket boosters. I would add that I think that bears would only have a shot here if they can keep this rally below 4090. 4085 would be better. Meanwhile, Poowell said that the Fed is going to dial back the rate increases to 50 BP from 75, as if the Fed is "setting rates." Fact is that over the past 6 weeks the bellwether 13 week bill rate has risen by... drumroll please... 50 basis points. In other words, the Fed is still following the market, not leading it. Note also that neither the 13 week or 4 week bill rates have broken their uptrends. Market interest rates are not causes. They are effects. They are meters of monetary tightness. There's no indication in this chart that that tightness is easing. The bull runs in stocks and bonds are swimming upstream. Bears Beware, Money Managers Are Finally Spending their RRP Slush Fund November 30,2022 For moron the markets, see: Bears Beware, Money Managers Are Finally Spending their RRP Slush Fund November 30,2022 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Read My Lips, No New Longs (A Few More Shorts) November 28, 2022 Major Inflection Point Here to Determine Whether Bull or Bear November 28, 2022 Gold and Miners, Pullback Looks OK November 23, 2022 Fed Policy Will Stay Bearish Until It’s Too Late November 20, 2022 The Repeal of Rule Number One, Don’t Fight the Fed November 14, 2022 Bond Market Rally is Technically Valid but Belies the Facts November 12, 2022 Bad News for the Markets – Not Just Withholding Boomed in October November 3, 2022 Surge in Withholding Tax Collections in October Indicates Faster Jobs Growth November 2, 2022 Bear Market Isn’t the Mirror of a Bull October 31, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 I suspect that the 30 day Tbill is going to stick right here at 4% now. Right where they want it I guess. There is after all $2Tn sitting around to mop up the short end. So then the Fed will catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 Holy fock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 Sell! NO BUY! NO SELL! I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO! FOcK ME! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 Working on the Devil's Tower formation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 BINGO! As reported here https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/2022/11/30/bears-beware-money-managers-are-finally-spending-their-rrp-slush-fund/. Quote As for the implications for the current jobs report, you never know because the BLS methodology is so speculative, being based on unsupportable assumptions about seasonal adjustment and the birth and death of businesses. They then fit their previous monthly numbers to actual data for months and years after the fact. The first release is impressionistic art. Bad, impressionistic art. It only becomes more realistic after they refit their numbers to real numbers derived from unemployment compensation and tax data. Tax data that we have in real time. That said, the withholding tax collections for November are about where they were in October. That implies that there was no change in the level of jobs, or maybe some decline, given that there is some wage inflation. That’s the reality. The nonfarm payrolls number is something else. Dow Jones Marketwatch economists’ survey consensus is for a gain of 200,000 jobs vs. 261,000 reported in October. Based on October withholding, the October number was understated. The BLS often makes up for that in the next month’s number. Bottom line is that the BLS number should meet or beat expectations based on their October number being too low, and the November tax collection level being about the same as at this point in October. But I reiterate that this is a sideshow. Whatever the BLS reports, and whatever the initial market reaction, the fact is that the market will go on about following the trend that it has already established. Where we need to be focused, is on the fact that the market will continue to get pounded by new supply. That will limit the size and duration of the current rally phases in stocks and bonds. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/2022/11/30/bears-beware-money-managers-are-finally-spending-their-rrp-slush-fund/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 The reactivity of this market to news has made it, for me, untradeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullMyFinger Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, DrStool said: Sell! NO BUY! NO SELL! I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO! FOcK ME! It's as if you are looking over my shoulder this week watching me trade. 🙂 What a flippin' mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 I hate to bring economics stuff up but there is a labor shortage. Covid has reduced the size of the labor pool. Meaning people who can't work at all and many many of those who can't work as much or as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 52 minutes ago, Jorma said: I hate to bring economics stuff up but there is a labor shortage. Covid has reduced the size of the labor pool. Meaning people who can't work at all and many many of those who can't work as much or as well. And...??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 Inflation is here to stay. Supply constraints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 I bot the dip. I feel so dirty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 If they don't start filling that gap soon, time to gitouttadodge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullMyFinger Posted December 2, 2022 Report Share Posted December 2, 2022 Playing around with the 60M NQ this morning and musing aloud. Picture perfect 5/8 (blue horizontal line down to green) move down this morning of octave drawn from Wednesday's low to Thursday's high (blue line to blue line). After a 5/8 move, I look for at least 1/8 or 2/8 counter trend move. So far, we have bounced 2/8+ back up (green line to green line), but let's see if the hourly candle closes above 2/8. After that, it's decision time--the market will either reverse down from that level to attempt to retest support, or continue up past the 2/8 move and keep seeking higher successive 1/8 levels to try eventually to head back up toward the 8/8 (blue) line. Let's see what happens if we can get to the red line at 11985-ish, which would be a 3/8 retracement. If we don't pause and reverse at 11985-12,000, then it wouldn't shock me if we kept going up and closed at or near green today. But I'm waiting to see how this 60M bar closes. Doesn't look all that great right now. Charts can be beautiful using the rear view mirror, but man, these swings can be violent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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