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That's a Helluva Top- 11/17/22

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The pattern on the hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P futures, speaks for itself. 

tvc_622168a3fa159ae2b127127d8a1efb7b.png

To translate, it's a top, and it has broken down. 

But there are a couple of problems from the bearish perspective. First, the 5 day cycle projection is only 3915-30, and they already reached the top of that range. Second, there are multiple sport levels and trendlines in the 3910-3920 area. If they hold, this decline would be but a false start. 

tvc_622168a3fa159ae2b127127d8a1efb7b.png

In addition, the hourly oscillators are barely in negative territory, and a 5 day cycle low is due right now. An upturn from these levels could catch fire.

Here's a longer term perspective using 5 hour bars. Note that the original base breakout at 3800 has a conventional measured move target of 4100.  You can see how formidable and important the 3910-3930 sport area is.  If this holds, I'd be inclined to want to be more long than short in my trading port. 

tvc_66ec8a2eb7f075a10089ef898e61d503.png

In my private daily swing trade trading screens that I use for setting up my own trades, the screens from yesterday's closing prices spit out 28 final sells, and 10 final buys. I do a weekly posting every Monday morning for Technical Trader subscribers. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/2022/11/14/swing-trade-screen-picks-few-good-longs-no-good-shorts/ 

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23 minutes ago, DrStool said:

In my private daily swing trade trading screens that I use for setting up my own trades, the screens from yesterday's closing prices spit out 28 final sells, and 10 final buys.

Just reviewed the lists and 2 of the buys were bear ETFs, so the final score is 30 sells, 8 buys. 

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As you can see, this is roughly where push comes to shove. 

image.png

3950 is the key. Clear that, and bulls are back, fail, and bears win the day and maybe more. 

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