Jimi Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Where's Coin Guy? I have this vision of him departing port in a lovely yacht wearing a straw hat, listening to Jimmy Buffet, and not giving AF about what might be going on anywhere on land. His chart remains "live" in my estimation. So does my "Niners win the Superbowl" ticket from the Venetian in September. My "Raiders win the Superbowl" ticket? Not so much.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, Jorma said: Is the 3 month T bill the proper measure against the Fed Funds rate? That's what got me to thinking of the 30 day rate which I have at 3.57 Fair question, but the point is that the Fed is behind the real market in terms of the amount of increase. The Fed Funds rate is not a real rate. Trading in Fed Funds is minuscule, and only used by banks that need reserves, which is virtually nobody important. Fed Funds is for show. T-bills is for dough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Here's the 4 week bill overlaid. It's up 120 BP since the day before the last Fed hut hut HUHHHHHTTTT . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Einstein Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 5 pages... do u think thats enough to marker. a top...or a bottom... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 minute ago, No Einstein said: 5 pages... do u think thats enough to marker. a top...or a bottom... On a nominal or real basis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Doc, does your chart with 4,2 implies that are we close to the end of the rate hike as the Fed catches up with the market and it's over? Of course unless this things keep keep climbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, Jimi said: On a nominal or real basis? 😂🤣🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 If we overdo the increases, then we have plenty of tools to support the economy afterwards. If we end the increases too quickly, then inflation will become entrenched and for that there are not many good tools. So from a risk management point of view, it is better to overdo the increases. - Powell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SiP Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 and here is 2008 analogy but like i said, in don't believe in any analogies because for the past 13 years it didnt work, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 Stocks traded in a narrow 150 point range on the S&P 500 as the markets had little reaction to the Fed's expected rate HIKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 19 minutes ago, SiP said: Doc, does your chart with 4,2 implies that are we close to the end of the rate hike as the Fed catches up with the market and it's over? Of course unless this things keep keep climbing. It doesn't imply anything. And the Fed's sham rate "hikes" are irrelevant. The bill rates are a meter of market tightness. The Fed just treads water trying to keep up. It's even further behind the market now than it was before. Surge in Withholding Tax Collections in October Indicates Faster Jobs Growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 8 hours ago, DrStool said: Meanwhile, the ES, 24 hour S&P fuguetures chart looks like this. Dead in the water, poised for a 3 day cycle upturn, but due to hit resistance around 3895 at about the time the smoke signals appear from the roof of the Fedican on St. Eccles Square. Then His Eminence Pope Jaysus the First will rise before the assembled multitude in the Square at 2:30 PM ET to pronounce his incantations in tongues. The masses below, and the markets themselves will writhe in ecstatic pain for a few hours, overnight even, and even into the wee hours of the morning as the besotted ecstasy of the fades into a sullen march toward whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 2, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 7 hours ago, DrStool said: Sport lines 3837, 3830, then the a biss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 „A reporter made a blunder during the press conference but it ended up being the most-revealing moment of the press conference. He told Powell that stock markets were responding positively to the FOMC and asked Powell about his reaction to that. In fact, markets were decidedly lower when he posed the question. In any case, Powell didn't know that and promptly repeated that "we have a ways to go" on rates and "some ground to cover". Those were the same hawkish words he said in the statement that caused markets to fall.“ https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/the-most-telling-moment-from-powells-press-conference-20221102/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted November 2, 2022 Report Share Posted November 2, 2022 1 hour ago, DrStool said: Surge in Withholding Tax Collections in October Indicates Faster Jobs Growth That‘s truly amazing and quite a Sir Prize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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