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The Bond Market Crash Is Accelerating 10/21/22

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Spike rallies weaken the market when liquidity is tight. I believe its because they represent short covering stop orders being triggered en masse. That removes potential demand from the days ahead. 

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7 hours ago, DrStool said:

Wall Street makes a point of constantly misdirecting you to follow things that are simply irrelevant at best, misleading, or outright lies and subterfuge at worst.

That stuff's m'favy-faves!!

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1 hour ago, DrStool said:

Shorting has never been easy. Even in bear markets. 

That‘s right.

That‘s why I would always recommend to private investors:

1. Don‘t short

2. NEVER EVER touch options. NEVER!

The reason is simple: You play a game you can‘t win cause your counterpart has inside info you don‘t have and is far more sophisticated in that what he does than you. I‘m talking about prop traders at major banks. They are good, really good. They destroy you within a minute. Those guys are not the ones you see on CNBC, like the chinese guy with the fat glasses.

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I guess it was naïve to think that holding the Treasuries General Account North of $500bn or even $250bn was insurance against the government running out funds because of an emergency.  Instead it was a slush fund for when the market needs liquidity. Especially since it's obvious that the Treasury can sell stupendous quantities of new paper when panic grips the markets. No need for savings. 

They could have run down the General Account a lot faster this year buy slowing issuance, no policy change of the Treasury doing backs needed. It would also have slowed the market from running so far ahead of the Fed "raising rates". Not that anyone cares. It remains to be seen if a half point or whatever increase next time will catch up to the market. The market it "sets", oh boy.

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3 minutes ago, Jorma said:

I guess it was naïve to think that holding the Treasuries General Account North of $500bn or even $250bn was insurance against the government running out funds because of an emergency.  Instead it was a slush fund for when the market needs liquidity. Especially since it's obvious that the Treasury can sell stupendous quantities of new paper when panic grips the markets. No need for savings. 

They could have run down the General Account a lot faster this year buy slowing issuance, no policy change of the Treasury doing backs needed. It would also have slowed the market from running so far ahead of the Fed "raising rates". Not that anyone cares. It remains to be seen if a half point or whatever increase next time will catch up to the market. The market it "sets", oh boy.

In the end they will only succeed at transferring interest rate risk from market players onto taxpayers via the federal government and the federal reserve balance sheet. The purpose of the TBAC is to minimize the cost of interest paid by taxpayers over the long run. Instead they've turned it into just another political government tool to intervene in the market. Our governments are actively trying to cover up the repercussions of decades of policy errors that have lead to an unsustainable system.

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10 minutes ago, Jorma said:

Treasuries General Account North of $500bn or even $250bn was insurance against the government running out funds because of an emergency.  Instead it was a slush fund for when the market needs liquidity

That's the definition of an emergency.

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I go to the hospital for a little outpatient procedure and come back home...to this. 

Must have been an interesting day.  I'm hearing tales of a pivot?  The pivot was the Treasury announcement...this as far as I'm gathering is just follow-thru. 

It was this...or meltdown I'd imagine.  No worries...everyone is on the right side of the trade and all is well.  Go. Back. To. Sleep...

The ^XOI exploded over my nice little doji.  Above 1804-5, and I'll actually be asking for coal in my stocking...

EDIT:  I've looked over the SPX.  If you take out the high from the 18th...that would confirm the C leg of a "at a minimum" 1:1 ABC to 3900.  3500 to 3750, pullback to 3650 and tack on another 250 points.

27th is the only other small window I see in my database.  New Moon on the 25th.

Best,

TCG

oh...and...

Before I left this morning, I took a snapshot of Doc's live feed at 7 AM CST.

1081934482_7AM2-October212022.thumb.jpg.70abf65f730980fdf936a6328a586529.jpg

I'll work on those charts over the weekend.

 

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51 minutes ago, sandy beach said:

 The purpose of the TBAC is to minimize the cost of interest paid by taxpayers over the long run. Instead they've turned it into just another political government tool to intervene in the market. 

Ostensibly their purpose is to advise the government for that. But the TBAC is a committee of officers of Primary Dealers and international banks. That's "just a bit outside" conflict of interest. 

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Well, I was terrible this week. The title of my next stock screen chart picks report will be Operation Extrication. 

How to say mea culpa without sounding like a crybaby. 

Ugh. 

From Barcelona- Asta Lou Eggo. 

Pray for me. 

ZK-VFOaJQvCBccQ4zYJPT5D6t2tOzIRaM-9R5jte

 

Just kidding. Don't do that. 😁😁😁

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New 5 hours ago... from the wonderful community of Willits, CA.... this is a prciy listing at $1.5m for 40 acres.  There's a lot of installed equipment that the are trying to recoup - solar, Tesla Powerwalls, automated irrigation & nutrient systems, etc....

"The property has a recently renewed CA cultivation permit with 10k SqFt of cultivation."

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Willits/29882-Blue-Lake-Rd-95490/home/120039649

I can't imagine this transacting at asking given the others we've seen.

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1 hour ago, Jimi said:

New 5 hours ago... from the wonderful community of Willits, CA.... this is a prciy listing at $1.5m for 40 acres.  There's a lot of installed equipment that the are trying to recoup - solar, Tesla Powerwalls, automated irrigation & nutrient systems, etc....

"The property has a recently renewed CA cultivation permit with 10k SqFt of cultivation."

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Willits/29882-Blue-Lake-Rd-95490/home/120039649

I can't imagine this transacting at asking given the others we've seen.

Sold 2016 $505K

Sold 2021 $1.350K

They overpaid! I sure hope they realize they are going to take a big loss on this.

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