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Money Market Collapse Rages On- Stocks Sing Tro Lo Lo 10/20/22

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Be very careful here...

1459856394_LineintheSand-October202022.thumb.jpg.6da1d110f8f9e7a5ba687f60c8d0efdb.jpg

In the ^XOI they've powered back through 1750.  Now...they have to hold it.

If they can't...Twin Peaks and a 1000+ point decline.

If they can...better stock up on firewood.

No.  I don't think they can.

All of the markets that I follow are either dancing at the edge...or close.  I made a forecast I think it was before my surgery about the TLT...I still hold the same view and don't see any reason to update.  The SLV is sitting on support at 17, if it falls through...it could immediately accelerate.  Same with the GLD...160 has now been tested from both sides.  It's very close to being ready to make its play.  I really want to mention...be careful in the ^HUI...that's not a bottoming formation...it's actually, well...I think for this one I better draw up a chart.  it's incoming.  Soon.

Best,

TCG

oh...and...

For your convenience...

The "Twin Peaks" Formation Reference Chart.

147223493_TwinPeaksFormation-April282022.thumb.jpg.c3076db5f55cb1122bf74770b9105b63.jpg

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WHERE IS THE THE 100 YEAR BOND SHORT ETF

If one existed it would be doing very well right now.

You could even have a 3 times levered short one.....

But I guess that would be pushing the envelope a bit too far....

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Scientific evidence invalidates
health assumptions underlying the FCC
and ICNIRP exposure limit determinations
for radiofrequency radiation: implications for 5G
International Commission on the Biological Effects of Electromagnetic Fields (ICBE-EMF)*
Abstract
In the late-1990s, the FCC and ICNIRP adopted radiofrequency radiation (RFR) exposure limits to protect the public and workers from adverse effects of RFR. These limits were based on results from behavioral studies conducted in the 1980s involving 40–60-minute exposures in 5 monkeys and 8 rats, and then applying arbitrary safety factors to an apparent threshold specific absorption rate (SAR) of 4 W/kg. The limits were also based on two major assumptions: any biological effects were due to excessive tissue heating and no effects would occur below the putative threshold SAR,
as well as twelve assumptions that were not specified by either the FCC or ICNIRP. In this paper, we show how the past 25 years of extensive research on RFR demonstrates that the assumptions underlying the FCC’s and ICNIRP’s exposure limits are invalid and continue to present a public health harm. Adverse effects observed at exposures below the assumed threshold SAR include non-thermal induction of reactive oxygen species, DNA damage, cardiomyopathy,carcinogenicity, sperm damage, and neurological effects, including electromagnetic hypersensitivity. Also, multiple human studies have found statistically significant associations between RFR exposure and increased brain and thyroid
cancer risk. Yet, in 2020, and in light of the body of evidence reviewed in this article, the FCC and ICNIRP reaffirmed the same limits that were established in the 1990s. Consequently, these exposure limits, which are based on false sup-positions, do not adequately protect workers, children, hypersensitive individuals, and the general population from short-term or long-term RFR exposures. Thus, urgently needed are health protective exposure limits for humans and the environment. These limits must be based on scientific evidence rather than on erroneous assumptions, especially
given the increasing worldwide exposures of people and the environment to RFR, including novel forms of radiation from 5G telecommunications for which there are no adequate health effects studies.

 

 https://icbe-emf.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/ICBE-EMF-paper-12940_2022_900_OnlinePDF_Patched-1.pdf

 

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35 minutes ago, fxfox said:

USD/JPY above 150 now

TLT with a 94 handle

the stress in the system gets bigger and bigger…

The FED will buy bonds again. They have to, otherwise the world wide shortage of USD will collapse the whole system.

The Treasury will buy them first so that the Fed doesn't look bad. It has $650 billion to play with. 

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33 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Do you think the Fed will ever realize what a mess it has made. 

z9qeb

 

This is so bad.

It's epochal on a multi-decade basis... multi-generational basis at this point... yet, I just don't get the sense others view it as such.

You've posted REPEATEDLY (to your credit) how behind the curve the Fed is.

Which is to say that the rate hikes to date... AREN'T ADDRESSING THIS EPOCHAL CHALLENGE.

The Bay Area is Ground Zero for the decades-long consequence of Fed benevolence: it isn't only public equity that has been back-stopped since Greenspan, it's also - and especially - private equity that has enjoyed the "capital exit" afforded by excess liquidity.

"Tech" as an asset class is not simply a consequence of innovation & speculative capital: it has been propelled by the decades' long rate decline from the 1980 top... which means that any asset (and most importantly, intellectual property) has enjoyed the tail-wind of declining discount rates.  Pick any 5-year period since the top: buy an asset using prevailing discount rates & then rerun the DCF 5-years later. It's always paid off as a function of the risk-free rate.

It's made financial geniuses of many who weren't all that.

No one here can conceive of a 1970s-type multi-year inflation run, that drives the risk-free rate skyward.

Like... into double-digits.

fredgraph.png?g=V5iM

Stuff happens.

Stuff happened: Vietnam, Great Society, Gold-Window, OPEC, WIN-buttons, Malaise, Gas Lines, Rollerskating to Disco.

Stuff happens.

The freaking complacency drives me nuts.  I mean, maybe it all works out, and we enjoy a soft landing and the 10-year trends back down to below 2% or wherever?

 

Everyone is so habituated to the financial disreality of a Federal Reserve that cures all ills.

That makes richest asset-holders ever richer.

To answer the question, "No, I don't think the jackasses at the Fed have any clue or appreciation for the mess they've created. I think they view themselves as financial geniuses, who have 'saved' the system again & again."

The Fed has made Americans fat, lazy, indebted & entitled.

It's sickening.

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Here is the ^HUI chart I promised.  I'm not going to cover this formation because I've posted it several times.  What I am going to mention is that you need to watch "the direction of the lower trendline" once you're in the decline phase.  It was right here where many goldbugs got their hat handed to them in 2008. 

To negate the pattern you'd need to take out the peak from October 4th. 

1504492002_The2008Trap-October202022.thumb.jpg.cc7b0142410842bee79b7c7445bb2c7d.jpg

This is no time to be playing games...

Best,

TCG

oh...and...

Can you begin to view the world through the eyes of The CoinGuy?

1706464442_SPX-October202022.jpg.4bd5e333126e7c86da9bc2ad727fd103.jpg

 

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