JonLaw Posted September 29, 2022 Report Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, DrStool said: The latest- https://www.instagram.com/200daysineurope/ You are definitely having fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 29, 2022 Report Share Posted September 29, 2022 25 minutes ago, DrStool said: Primary Dealers, by virtue of their special status aren't just first in line to buy Treasuries, they are in fact to take down what the rest of the market does not absorb. They are REQUIRED to bid at every auction. So they are forced to buy shit with extreme leverage that is constantly falling in price. This is the crux of the problem and why I have been so hysterically bearish, particularly on the bond market. Or as the French would say, when the bond market rallies, the chat mort rebond market. Yes that is the French for "dead cat bounce." The only thing the dealers can to is to hedge with futures. Not only haven't they done enough, they went the wrong way again in August-September. Markets Face Catastrophe as Dealers Mitigate Too Little Too Late I didn‘t know that they are forced to buy. That explains a lot. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 29, 2022 Report Share Posted September 29, 2022 The SOX lost the monthly EMA 50 (200 weekly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted September 29, 2022 Report Share Posted September 29, 2022 45 minutes ago, DrStool said: Primary Dealers, by virtue of their special status aren't just first in line to buy Treasuries, they are in fact to take down what the rest of the market does not absorb. They are REQUIRED to bid at every auction. So they are forced to buy shit with extreme leverage that is constantly falling in price. This is the crux of the problem and why I have been so hysterically bearish, particularly on the bond market. Or as the French would say, when the bond market rallies, the chat mort rebond market. Yes that is the French for "dead cat bounce." The only thing the dealers can to is to hedge with futures. Not only haven't they done enough, they went the wrong way again in August-September. Markets Face Catastrophe as Dealers Mitigate Too Little Too Late The new Bear's pickup line when meeting others at a french cafe... Just need to say it in french with an authentic accent. the chat mort rebond market Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 29, 2022 Report Share Posted September 29, 2022 VIX no new high, TLT, HYG no new lows yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The CoinGuy Posted September 29, 2022 Report Share Posted September 29, 2022 11 hours ago, fxfox said: VIX, TLT, HYG didn‘t make new lows yet Good afternoon fxfox... I'd personally prefer they don't. I didn't call our current support just above 3600 the battle of the dopamine(liquidity) dripsters for nothing. The whole world is addicted to the sweet nectar(of free money). England's intervention was the first response as even a notion was made for intention to cross 3600. I believe the cry will only be louder if you attempt to do it again. As far as I can tell, there are brush fires everywhere. I'll say it again. As far as I'm concerned....3600 is the line in the sand. 3500 will yield the same decline possibility(MAGNET), BUT in the "business as usual" format. Does our current economic situation yield feelings of..."business as usual" to you? As I'm sitting here...I'm personally hoping this is a retest and rejection. I can see the alternative quite clear from my vantage point...and I don't really want to go down that road. For me...it's never the destination that concerns me...It's how you get to that destination. That's where my interest lies. Best, TCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 29, 2022 Report Share Posted September 29, 2022 19 minutes ago, The CoinGuy said: Good afternoon fxfox... I'd personally prefer they don't. I didn't call our current support just above 3600 the battle of the dopamine(liquidity) dripsters for nothing. The whole world is addicted to the nectar...of free money. England's intervention was the first response as even a notion was made for intention to cross 3600. I believe the cry will only be louder if you attempt to do it again. As far as I can tell, there are brush fires everywhere. I'll say it again. As far as I'm concerned....3600 is the line in the sand. 3500 will yield the same decline possibility(MAGNET), BUT in the "business as usual" format. Does our current economic situation yield feelings of..."business as usual" to you? As I'm sitting here...I'm personally hoping this is a retest and rejection. I can see the alternative quite clear from my vantage point...and I don't really want to go down that road. Best, TCG The „alternative“ is a concerted global CB‘s intervention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted September 29, 2022 Report Share Posted September 29, 2022 Market's closed. Your "Daily Pot Farm" listed 13 hours ago. "Great opportunity to own a fully permitted cannabis property." https://www.redfin.com/CA/Willits/Undisclosed-address-95490/home/167250504 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 29, 2022 Report Share Posted September 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jimi said: Market's closed. Your "Daily Pot Farm" listed 13 hours ago. "Great opportunity to own a fully permitted cannabis property." https://www.redfin.com/CA/Willits/Undisclosed-address-95490/home/167250504 Reninds me of back then stoolie Mark chain posting pics of houses in a dying housing market in 2008/09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 29, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 hour ago, fxfox said: I didn‘t know that they are forced to buy. That explains a lot. Thank you. Not forced. Required as part of their special status. Normally it always works in their favor. This wasn't in the playbook. Used to be in the old days that they would short against the upcoming auctions. Until 2009, they were always net short. Of course, that was wrong in 2007-08, which is why they went bust and collapsed the financial system. Today is a mirror image of that. They were record net long at the bond market price top in July 2020. And they've never gotten net short. Not even for a day. Positioned wrong all the way. They made money on stocks to cover for it. But now that game is done too. Markets Face Catastrophe as Dealers Mitigate Too Little Too Late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 29, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 29, 2022 9 minutes ago, fxfox said: Reninds me of back then stoolie Mark chain posting pics of houses in a dying housing market in 2008/09 Warehouses, as I recall. Chain posting while chain smoking... something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 29, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 29, 2022 de la chat mort rebond marche, bonne nuit et bonne chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted September 29, 2022 Report Share Posted September 29, 2022 27 minutes ago, fxfox said: The „alternative“ is a concerted global CB‘s intervention I thought some were still doing QE (ECB, JAPAN, China?, etc....) Less? More? or like the FED, doing sorta SLOW-Mo QT - roll-offs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted September 29, 2022 Report Share Posted September 29, 2022 The lender of last resort for California 'alternate lifestyle property/crops' ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted September 29, 2022 Report Share Posted September 29, 2022 21 minutes ago, DrStool said: Not forced. Required as part of their special status. Normally it always works in their favor. This wasn't in the playbook. Used to be in the old days that they would short against the upcoming auctions. Until 2009, they were always net short. Of course, that was wrong in 2007-08, which is why they went bust and collapsed the financial system. Today is a mirror image of that. They were record net long at the bond market price top in July 2020. And they've never gotten net short. Not even for a day. Positioned wrong all the way. They made money on stocks to cover for it. But now that game is done too. Markets Face Catastrophe as Dealers Mitigate Too Little Too Late That‘s frightening. So they play moral hazard again and get bailed out AGAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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