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Central Banks Yen to Intervene- 9/23/22

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Well now, that did a lot, didn't it.  

Look, I've said it before and I'll say it again. The Fed is the black hole at the center of the worldwide banking system. So long as it is withdrawing cash and the ECB and BoJ are either still adding or standing pat, their currencies will fall against the dollar. The reason is simple. There are constantly fewer dollars and the same or more yen and euros. So the dollar's price will continue to rise in yen and euros. The idea that the BoJ can intervene and change that trend by selling USD and buying Yen is a pipedream. 

z0xm3

Meanwhile, the EUR/USD looks set to go over another cliff as it heads for a measured move target of 0.90, based on its big top breakdown. 

z0xnh

 

Here's the very long term view on that.

z0xp0

 

Meanwhile back at the US market, I would say that the ES 24 hour S&P futures are taking aim at the 5 day cycle projection of 3700. But that would be wrong. 

Because they're already there for all intents and purposes. But don't forget that measured move target of 3660 or so. That's still out there. 

z0xre

Meanwhile, back at the big picture:

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1 hour ago, potatohead said:

Lee,

How are Europeans taking the slide in their currency? What is economic activity like where you are?

I don't see any real sign of stress yet here in the South of France. Hotels are still full, and rates are high. Restaurants are busy and I haven't seen much in the way of price increases lately. I noticed rising prices earlier in the summer. 

I don't follow local media however. I am far from fluent in French.  

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5 hours ago, DrStool said:

ES 24 hour S&P futures are taking aim at the 5 day cycle projection of 3700. But that would be wrong. 

Because they're already there for all intents and purposes. But don't forget that measured move target of 3660 or so. That's still out there. 

Also sport line convergence this hour at 3653, 

Low so far 3663. 

z10t3

 

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1 hour ago, DrStool said:

I don't see any real sign of stress yet here in the South of France. Hotels are still full, and rates are high. Restaurants are busy and I haven't seen much in the way of price increases lately. I noticed rising prices earlier in the summer. 

I don't follow local media however. I am far from fluent in French.  

Do you live in a city more focused on tourism? seems like everything I read, many parts of europe are seeing high inflation and rising discontent.

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1 hour ago, DrStool said:

I don't see any real sign of stress yet here in the South of France. Hotels are still full, and rates are high. Restaurants are busy and I haven't seen much in the way of price increases lately. I noticed rising prices earlier in the summer. 

I don't follow local media however. I am far from fluent in French.  

Produce prices are skyrocketing. 

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10 minutes ago, potatohead said:

Do you live in a city more focused on tourism? seems like everything I read, many parts of europe are seeing high inflation and rising discontent.

Nice is a very laid back place. It is a wealthy city by European standards, and one of the most popular summer resorts in the world. I noticed many more Americans here than usual this year as the USD has strengthened against the euro. It used to be an anomaly to hear Americans in the street. Now it's so common, I don't even turn my head. Most tourists come from the north. For the French, the Riviera is the Jersey Shore and the Hamptons rolled into one. 

And of course you know about Monaco, which is 12 miles from here. 

The French Riviera has long been a haven for the Russian oligarchs. They've disappeared this year. Far fewer super yachts in the yacht basins. 

September is still considered high season, but it is not the same as August. It's about half as busy here now as in the first two weeks of August. 

So, yes, the stresses are not as apparent here as in the rest of Europe. 

FxFox lives in Germany. He's a native and in better position to have his finger on the pulse of the popular mood in Europe. Given the German perspective on inflation, that would be interesting. 

I just don't have the contact with the media here that the locals do. 

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