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Pouring a New Subfloor on First Day of the Fall to Another Market "Bottom" - 9/22/22

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I have to get out of my apartment for a couple of days. They are pouring a new subfloor. Hotel rates here are still stratospheric, so I'm looking for a comfortable spot under the arches at Place Garibaldi. There's a nice community of old Polish fellows living there that I can join for a few days, considering that I speak a few Polish phrases. Ayyyyy! Jak się masz!  

I just need to get some cardboard boxes at the Monoprix to make my bed. 

During the day, there's a business center café in the Hotel du Pin, across the street from my apartment, where I can hang out, do some work, and chat wit youse.  I hope they let me use the WC. 

Meanwhile, today is, of course, 22 9 22 in European terms. The first day of Fall.  First day of the Post FOMC Circus Fall. But what about the rest of the Fall. Follow that story at Liquidity Trader. I missed the dog and pony show yesterday. What did MC Cool Jay have to say?

It's only 4:20 AM in New York, a little early to guess what the day will look like in the stock market. Yesterday's head and shoulders top at a bottom breakdown measured to 3750ish. That's done. But there was a bigger pattern that measures to 3650ish that suggests more downside. The bigger patterns are less reliable than the smaller ones, so I don't know about that second target. 5 day cycle projection was overshot. There's a 2-3 day cycle projection of 3730 still hanging out there, but hourly oscillators have upticked and an upturn is due on that cycle. 

Considering all that, I'd lean toward today being a consolidation day. Likely range 3735-3825, or 3845 if the manage to punch out 3825. 

z0i47

Meanwhile, the big picture: 

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And again, the Fed's sham increase in the sham Fed Funds rate at 75 BP fell short of the 100 BP rise in market rates since the last Fed rate "increase" 6 weeks ago. The Fed Fake Funds rate was "raised" to 3-3.25, while the 13 week T-bill, which is a real market, trades at 3.34.  The Fed just keeps running to keep up with the market. 

z0i6q

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5 hours ago, DrStool said:

I have to get out of my apartment for a couple of days. They are pouring a new subfloor. Hotel rates here are still stratospheric, so I'm looking for a comfortable spot under the arches at Place Garibaldi. There's a nice community of old Polish fellows living there that I can join for a few days, considering that I speak a few Polish phrases. Ayyyyy! Jak się masz!  

 

Why don't you just stay on your yacht. Oh that's right. Bears don't have yachts.

Nice, france - october 6, 2019: view at port lympia in nice, france. buit at 1748, it is one of the oldest port facilities on the french riviera. - 139684186

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15 minutes ago, Jorma said:

Why don't you just stay on your yacht. Oh that's right. Bears don't have yachts.

Nice, france - october 6, 2019: view at port lympia in nice, france. buit at 1748, it is one of the oldest port facilities on the french riviera. - 139684186

But that's my hood. I live 3 blocks away. My first stay in Nice a couple years back was just off the right side of that photo. I had a view of the port and the sea, and la Colline du Chateau. 

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As expected German Real Estate breaks down:
 

Hypoport SE: Decline of revenue and EBIT expected for Q3 2022. Annual forecast is suspended.


https://www.hypoport.com/hypoport/uploads/2022/09/20220922-Hypoport-Inside-information-pursuant-to-article-17-of-the-MAR-Guidance-FY-22.pdf


„The current forecast for the year will be clearly missed. Because the Management Board cannot predict whether consumers' reluctance to close mortgage loans will end later this year, it is suspending its forecast for the current financial year 2022.“

 

Stock -24% after hours at 120, high was at 612 in Sep 2021.

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