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Today the Cool Jay Circus Comes to Town 9/21/22

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The market has settled into a trading range, as usual, as it waits for the FOMC circus to come to down on its regularly scheduled visit every six weeks. This show is just a few days before the annual Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur period. But that does not tell us what to do in the couple of days before that rule comes into effect. That will depend on whether there's the traditional Fed resubstantiation rally in the wake of the circus elephant's droppings. 

The beauty of the current chart pattern on the ES, 24 hour S&P futures is that it is perfectly positioned for... well... anything. The 3 day cycle is due for an upturn. The 5 day cycle is due for a downturn. The price as of 6:30 AM in New York is right in the middle of the 3 day range, and cycle oscillators are in neutral territory. The market hasn't tipped its hand, because in the short run nobody knows WTF to do.  

So we wait. 

z04vk

As far as the Department of BTC Leads, Sometimes, no help here either. 

z04w7

Meanwhile, check out the trend of the 10 year yield ever since Bloomberg posted BAC's call for 2% at the exact moment of the exact low on August 2. I mean, a fiction writer could not write this shit. That's how diabolical the Street is. Remember that BAC- Mohel Lynch is one of the biggest Fed/Treasury Primary Dealers. Oy, do they got tips for you!  

z04yl

Last but not least, today the Fed will pretend that it controls interest rates as it merely attempt to catch up with a market that has already moved 100 bp since the last FOMC circus, with ringmaster Cool Jay Powell.  

z052b

Meanwhile, the big picture: 

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2 hours ago, Jorma said:

Isn't it getting a little late in the month to not have an announcement for the end of quarter coupon auction amounts?

They never vary much from the TBAC schedule. 

I just came from a conference for Americans here. I open my screen and holy shit what the hell is going on?

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