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How Far Down is Down? 9/19/22

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That crack below 3900 on Friday ripped the cork off a 400 pt SPX Genie bottle.  I'd imagine...they're scrambling to re-seal.  The kind of volume I witnessed today will not do the job(updated!).

767061902_400pointsorbust-September192022.thumb.jpg.f946517da3075e43dd6af12bf8d9076f.jpg

Any. Decisive. Move. from this day forward(through the end of the month) WILL NEED Volume and second day confirmation.

Let me repeat my old saying.  "One day does not a new trend make".

I will mention...in 2008.  At this very moment in time...the cycle inverted and marked the declines 1/2 way point(also called a...Pivot Marker).

I can hear the whisper on the wind...ever so softly..."35 is the KEY to all markets".

Huh?  What?

TCG

 

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TCG,

todays volume is missing on your chart? I just checked: Fridays volume was almost double of that one today. So there was no follow thru on volume today. So that countermove today was on very low volume today and that makes that move today „weak“ so to say. That‘s what you wanted to say, right?

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5 hours ago, fxfox said:

 That‘s what you wanted to say, right?

No fxfox...

That IS precisely what I said.

"This kind of volume won't do the job".

Although I will edit my original comment to:

"The kind of volume I witnessed today will not do the job".  If that will make my opinion more clear?

It is today's volume that led me to follow-up with this:

"Any. Decisive. Move. from this day forward(through the end of the month) WILL NEED Volume and second day confirmation."

In short...one day wonders on light volume ain't fooling no one.

Best,

TCG

oh...and...

Since I've got a few minutes.   I have perused through my archives...and I want to mention something.

After 3750 falls...

I've discussed ad nauseum the "textbook" version of what I'd like to see transpire.  A decline to 3250 where the market would rest for a time(IE: ^IXIC at 11k)...and then continue the decline to the MAGNET at 2240-2250.  We'll call this...Scenario A.

There is a second scenario, no less valid(for now)...where the decline will pause at 3600 and make several hard retests of 3750(perhaps even a spike back to where we are today?).  We'll call this...Scenario B.

From what I'm viewing here..."3600 IS the dividing line".  3600 and above, Scenario B.  Below?  Each point closer to 3500 strengthens the Scenario A argument. 3500 is the KEY(to scenario A).

Simply put.  Scenario B, 3600. Scenario A, 3500.

So...why the hubbub about a "Scenario B" anyway?  That my friends...will be our "marker" for determining the lead up to a crash.  From The CoinGuy's perspective...IF 3600 holds?  There is a very high risk of a crash that quickly escalates into an international contagion.  3500?  Business as usual.

At the end of the day...the only difference(net outcome) is not in the pattern(or distortion thereof), not in the price...but  in time(to completion).

I'll be expanding on this thought as we go forward...

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