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Dead Man's Curve- 9/15/22

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Regarding sentiment analysis espacially Put/Call ratio:

CBOE introduced options trading in 1973. It took a few years till volume of option trading really picked up. You didn‘t do that fancy options stuff as a money manager like straddle and whatnot in 1975 or 1977. That began in the early 80s, if not later. What does that mean? It simply means that we have no historic role modell of a valid Put/Call ratio in a secular bull market of interest rates. All those Put/Call ratios we see as reference are from 2008, 2000, 2003, 1998… There is none from 1979, 1980, 1981.

I say: Every sentiment analysis will fail in the comming months and those who trade based on sentiment in the current environment will learn their lesson.

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8 minutes ago, fxfox said:

Regarding sentiment analysis espacially Put/Call ratio:

CBOE introduced options trading in 1973. It took a few years till volume of option trading really picked up. You didn‘t do that fancy options stuff as a money manager like straddle and whatnot in 1975 or 1977. That began in the early 80s, if not later. What does that mean? It simply means that we have no historic role modell of a valid Put/Call ratio in a secular bull market of interest rates. All those Put/Call ratios we see as reference are from 2008, 2000, 2003, 1998… There is none from 1979, 1980, 1981.

I say: Every sentiment analysis will fail in the comming months and those who trade based on sentiment in the current environment will learn their lesson.

There is a lot of truth there.....The Problem now is

Is sentiment really QE/ZIRP/Fed Put/Gov Bailout?

>: Add in the Leverage (seen and unseen)

>:: Add in the Bliss of "positive thinking religion"

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12 minutes ago, MisFit Kid said:

There is a lot of truth there.....The Problem now is

Is sentiment really QE/ZIRP/Fed Put/Gov Bailout?

>: Add in the Leverage (seen and unseen)

>:: Add in the Bliss of "positive thinking religion"

In rising rates environment leverage becomes too expansive. Leverage as a form of greed is the ultimate consequence of ever falling rates. 

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3 minutes ago, The CoinGuy said:

I looked over my charts...

On the daily...for my own work to mesh up...I'd like to see one more quick spike.

Probably the longest goodbye in history here...now, I'm late!

TCG

Spike tomorrow around OpEx, then short the close with both hands.

Something is brewing and it‘s not coffee…

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9 minutes ago, fxfox said:

In rising rates environment leverage becomes too expansive. Leverage as a form of greed is the ultimate consequence of ever falling rates. 

Too many (Same "people") betting on the next Bail Out,

and expecting the Same outcome as the last crisis.....

>: I was really hoping to watch Arsenal today in the Europa

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19 minutes ago, MisFit Kid said:

Too many (Same "people") betting on the next Bail Out,

and expecting the Same outcome as the last crisis.....

>: I was really hoping to watch Arsenal today in the Europa

Bailout:

I saw that one on Tuesday:

 

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6 minutes ago, fxfox said:

Bailout:

I saw that one on Tuesday:

 

 

Haaland is Rockin'.......  Jesus is looking good for Arsenal, too

Overall.....

Man City wins, those fargin' iceholes

 

>: It is amazing how South park "comedy" has too much $hit right....

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The FedEx bomb after hours was just the beginning.

All I hear from main streamers is that we gonna "test" the June lows, implied between the lines that the test will be successfull and that we gonna go higher afterwards. We still have no significant fund outflows, if any. We are LIGHT YEARS away from a "throw in the towel" moment.

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