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Trending Meltup 9/13/22

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11 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Annualize it to 7.2% and it's no worse than it's been. Right? 

No. Not right. Last reading was 0.3, annulized 3.6, now we have 7.2 annualized, far more than expected and far far more than some whisper numbers which made the round.

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2 minutes ago, fxfox said:

No. Not right. Last reading was 0.3, annulized 3.6, now we have 7.2 annualized, far more than expected amy far far more than some whisper numbers which made the round.

Annualized higher from compounding.

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From my perspective. 

Nothing...has to make sense.

Only the market itself...is a leading indicator. Fundamental assumptions(aka: your own narrative) need not apply.

I’ll repeat...

The first rule I teach.   Define the patterned behavior within the issue(or area) of interest...and then teach the student(s) to trade the issue against(in comparison to) itself.

This should begin to make sense…

TCG

oh...and...

The last rule?

Events(in this life) are nothing more than Fractals Fractured(Staggered) by the Nature of Time.

 

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17 minutes ago, Jimi said:

Annualized higher from compounding.

Ah ok.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Interesting:

JANUARY 2023 CPI WEIGHT UPDATE

  • Starting with January 2023 data, the BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data, using consumer expenditure data from 2021. This reflects a change from prior practice of updating weights biennially using two years of expenditure data.

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

 

… gives them more room to „tweak“ the data 🙄

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Do your brain a favor and just toss the television out the window...

I'll be here the moment we cross 3750.

TCG

oh...and...

From my perspective.  Two weeks from now...today will be remembered as nothing more than a blip(on the screen).

While at a later date, our current decline from the January 5th peak will be viewed(overall) as a "cascading" decline...the crash phase will not show up until shortly after the rest at 3250. 

Now...I say the above with one caveat. 

When you have a 1x/1x decline with 3250 as the rest area(3250 being the line of division).  Then you CAN receive two mirrored crash phases, one before AND one after.  Even though I do consider this to be an unlikely proposition....it does have to be mentioned as a possibility.

Lastly...

I'm not in the office at the moment(health issue), but I do believe the 14th was on my list as a short window?  If I recall...it wasn't much of a window and only popped up every few years.  Although, you never know. 

I willl repeat...the 21st to 22nd are what I have my thoughts on.

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55 minutes ago, fxfox said:

No. Not right. Last reading was 0.3, annulized 3.6, now we have 7.2 annualized, far more than expected and far far more than some whisper numbers which made the round.

C'mon man. That's just Wall Street BULLSHIT. I've been posting this chart every month. Yeah, it's an uptick. No, it has not broken out of this year's range. Wall Street set everybody up to cover their shorts, and when they did, this is what happens. Were they shorting the rally? You'd better believe it. This was their payoff. 

image.png

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29 minutes ago, DrStool said:

C'mon man. That's just Wall Street BULLSHIT. I've been posting this chart every month. Yeah, it's an uptick. No, it has not broken out of this year's range. Wall Street set everybody up to cover their shorts, and when they did, this is what happens. Were they shorting the rally? You'd better believe it. This was their payoff. 

image.png

Yes correct. I already posted the link to the compouned annualized number.

The 4 day rally we had was fueled to a good part by stock buybacks by mega caps. Chart looked like buying on auto pilot. We enter frozen zone soon, so they had to buyback and this triggered the usual FOMO suspects with it.

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1 hour ago, DrStool said:

what, I ask you, is so terrible about today's CPI print that it justifies this? The answer: absolutely nothing.  

The market isn't trading on news now. There was no 'news' explaining the absurd rally 250 point rally.  You will know when the news really hits.

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Do your brain a favor and just toss the television out the window...

I'll be here the moment we cross 3750.

TCG

oh...and...

From my perspective.  Two weeks from now...today will be remembered as nothing more than a blip(on the screen).

While at a later date, our current decline from the January 5th peak will be viewed(overall) as a "cascading" decline...the crash phase will not show up until shortly after the rest at 3250. 

Now...I say the above with one caveat. 

When you have a 1x/1x decline with 3250 as the rest area(3250 being the line of division).  Then you CAN receive two mirrored crash phases, one before AND one after.  Even though I do consider this to be an unlikely proposition....it does have to be mentioned as a possibility.

Lastly...

I'm not in the office at the moment(health issue), but I do believe the 14th was on my list as a short window?  If I recall...it wasn't much of a window and only popped up every few years.  Although, you never know. 

I willl repeat...the 21st to 22nd are what I have my thoughts on.

And what do you expect on the 21st or 22nd ?  
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3 hours ago, tradermark said:

Do your brain a favor and just toss the television out the window...

I'll be here the moment we cross 3750.

TCG

oh...and...

From my perspective.  Two weeks from now...today will be remembered as nothing more than a blip(on the screen).

While at a later date, our current decline from the January 5th peak will be viewed(overall) as a "cascading" decline...the crash phase will not show up until shortly after the rest at 3250. 

Now...I say the above with one caveat. 

When you have a 1x/1x decline with 3250 as the rest area(3250 being the line of division).  Then you CAN receive two mirrored crash phases, one before AND one after.  Even though I do consider this to be an unlikely proposition....it does have to be mentioned as a possibility.

Lastly...

I'm not in the office at the moment(health issue), but I do believe the 14th was on my list as a short window?  If I recall...it wasn't much of a window and only popped up every few years.  Although, you never know. 

I willl repeat...the 21st to 22nd are what I have my thoughts on.

And what do you expect on the 21st or 22nd ?  

Tip: When quoting another post, just click the Quote link at the bottom of the post. 

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