DrStool Posted September 13, 2022 Report Share Posted September 13, 2022 I'm on my way from Rennes to Paris today. I'll spend a few more days in Paris before returning home to Nice at the end of the week. In between travel days and walkabout days, I'll be posting on Liquidity Trader and here from time to time. Yesterday I visited St. Malo. I'd call this the French version of Dubrovnik. I mean, Wow! But what a tourist trap. But the baroque architecture against the backdrop of the city walls and the sea are a sight to behold. I'm several days behind in posting to my Instagram feed, but if you enjoy looking at other people's boring travel photos, check it out. https://www.instagram.com/200daysineurope/ Meanwhile, back in the stock market, the ES 24 hour S&P fugutures are in a trending meltup that is running out of time for a 5 day cycle down phase. Here at 11 AM Central European Time, 5 AM ET, we are 4 1/2 days into a 5 day cycle with no sign of a down phase in sight. The ES would need to break 4116 and 4110 this morning to get anything going that bears would like. They ideally have a half day to break this. If they don't, the bulls would be in position continue the stampede for a few more days. Keep in mind that the conventional measured move target is 4250 based on the second level broken, but only 4135 based on the lower base breakout. It would be nice from the bearish perspective, if this held here, because if they get through this, then getting to 4220, which is the top of the bigger pattern, would seem to be a done deal. And if they get through that, the implications would be frightening. They've already blown out the 2-3 day and 5 day cycle projections. I don't go any longer term than that on projections here. For cycles of 4 weeks to 4 years, see the Technical Trader. And just for a little broader perspective, here's the 2 hour bars. Getting to 4220 from here looks easypeasy. At least the trailing stops I had set on 11 of the 13 short side picks on Technical Trader took those out last week with a decent profit. The other two were closed out, indecently, as of yesterday's open. I didn't like the setups on the buy side, so it's thumb twiddling time. A decision that I may live to regret. But then again, there's always another streetcar, and I prefer to ride the ones heading south. Meanwhile, the big picture: Swing Trade Screens – Trailing Stops Did Their Job To Preserve Profits September 12, 2022 I Heard It Through the Grapevine September 11, 2022 Special Bulletin – T-Bill Paydown September 8, 2022 Gold Won’t Hold September 7, 2022 Withholding Tax Collections Collapsed in August But BLS Data Won’t Show It September 2, 2022 Warnings of August Liquidity Crash Come to Fruition – Here’s What to Do August 28, 2022 Gold Miners Swing Picks August 26, 2022 Has Rule Number One Been Repealed? August 18, 2022 “As Good as It Gets” Was Good While It Lasted August 6, 2022 Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2022 The Fed just can't keep up with the one market that it is actually supposed to control. Short term interest rates. Warnings of August Liquidity Crash Come to Fruition – Here’s What to Do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted September 13, 2022 Report Share Posted September 13, 2022 CPI 8.3% vs. 8.1 expected Core 0.6% vs. 0.3% expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2022 WHOLLY SHIT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2022 zhe swee a Paree mantenon! Transliteration of I am now in Paris. Train near Montparnasse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted September 13, 2022 Report Share Posted September 13, 2022 IRX 91-day T-bill yield 3.19% 2Y 3.73% 5Y 3.52% 10Y 3.44% 30Y 3.57% Not enough - next stop 4% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2022 bit of a gap there. I just took this shot about 20 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullMyFinger Posted September 13, 2022 Report Share Posted September 13, 2022 Well, the prognostication from this anal cyst yesterday doesn't seem to have aged particularly well. Inflation ‘collapse’ will launch powerful market rally, Credit Suisse predicts https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/12/inflation-collapse-will-spark-big-stock-market-gains-credit-suisse.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted September 13, 2022 Report Share Posted September 13, 2022 2 hours ago, DrStool said: The Fed just can't keep up with the one market that it is actually supposed to control. Short term interest rates. Warnings of August Liquidity Crash Come to Fruition – Here’s What to Do Maybe Powell will come out and give another speech? Maybe he'll even travel to Jackson Hole and invite the plutocracy to attend? I called that speech "stupid," because it was a substitute for action. The Fed never hesitated to cut rates in between meetings the past 30 years. It should have raised rates once between meetings to demonstrate some measure of catch-up. It should raise rates today. Tell me I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted September 13, 2022 Report Share Posted September 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Jimi said: Maybe Powell will come out and give another speech? Maybe he'll even travel to Jackson Hole and invite the plutocracy to attend? I called that speech "stupid," because it was a substitute for action. The Fed never hesitated to cut rates in between meetings the past 30 years. It should have raised rates once between meetings to demonstrate some measure of catch-up. It should raise rates today. Tell me I'm wrong. I'm old enough to remember when inflation was below 2% and the Fed told us we need "average-inflation targeting" over the medium term and would allow inflation to rise over 2% in the medium term to compensate for periods when inflation was below 2%. Why is the Fed not calling for "average-inflation targeting" over the medium term now? Say allow deflation for a period of time to compensate for high inflation now? Why isn't the press asking this question? Why aren't Wall Street talking heads on Bloomberg bringing this hypocrisy to the fore? https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2018/wil181130 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted September 13, 2022 Report Share Posted September 13, 2022 Weirdness corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, sandy beach said: I'm old enough to remember when inflation was below 2% and the Fed told us we need "average-inflation targeting" over the medium term and would allow inflation to rise over 2% in the medium term to compensate for periods when inflation was below 2%. Why is the Fed not calling for "average-inflation targeting" over the medium term now? Say allow deflation for a period of time to compensate for high inflation now? Why isn't the press asking this question? Why aren't Wall Street talking heads on Bloomberg bringing this hypocrisy to the fore? https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2018/wil181130 Because Hypocrisy is their middle name. It's their religion. Their way of life. Gaslighting, propaganda, short memories, self exculpation, lies and manipulation. That's Wall Street and its captured media handmaidens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2022 Today is happening because all the shorts got squeezed out over the past 5 days. Including me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2022 In St. Malo yesterday, I had a piece of butter pie. That's not what it's called, but it's what it is. It wasn't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 13, 2022 Author Report Share Posted September 13, 2022 Black Tuesday 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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