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Lower Lows and Lower Highs for 500, Alex - 9/7/22

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The S&P 500, as shown on the ES futures 24 hour chart, has relentlessly been making lower lows and lower highs on a cycle averaging around 3.75 days. A low is due now, suggesting an upswing for most of the day today. The cycle now ending hasn't been as weak as the two prior ones, so they might pop it through the downtrend. The key trendline will be around 3913 in the first half hour of NY regular trading. To really get things going on the upside, the ES would then need to clear 3920. That should give it enough pop to get to yesterday's triple top at 3960. And if they got through that, then a challenge of the high of the last cycle made last Friday at 4018.6 would be in order. 

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. There's still an unmet 5 day cycle projection of approximately 3855. That will remain on the table until the downtrend is broken. If they break the overnight low of 3883.8, then I'd be looking for that to happen. 

ywzfb

I've been visiting the gorgeous city of Lyon the past two days. Excluding Paris, which is in a world of its own, Lyon for me is tied with Lisbon as the most beautiful big city that I have enjoyed in Europe. Today, it's on to Paris for a couple of days. 

I will post the Gold Trader report before New York opens.

This is just the very short term stuff. For the big picture check out the posts below. 

If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me

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One Step at a Time...

BTC: Using the standard measuring tool(for declines) I've been using for decades.  BTC(and ETH) is still coming up with negative numbers.  While I do see quite a bit of support in the 12's and a BTTB area just under...I don't see it stopping there. 

Perhaps at 10k, it will give us another dose of "roundnumberitis"...and then blow right through?

Hmm...I wonder what the March 2020 low(MAGNET) was in Bitcoin?

Interesting.

Mid four digits...no longer seems to be out of the realm of possibility.

I don't know...6500(+650/-650) just has a nice ring to it, but 5,200...now that...that sounds perfect.

5,200 or bust?  I'd still like to at least hope that bust has better odds.

Again...from my perspective. Bitcoin...is...only the introduction to financial servitude governed by the Fed(and the IRS).

TWTR:  Despite any shenanigans...15.00 is the 'official' call.  45 is the KEY, above...safe, below...dead in the water.  My thought...it wants to get volatile.

NVDA:  This issue has already cracked the swing point on Volume...and leading the decline.   From my perspective.  50 sounds about right.

1515412711_NVDAto50-September72022.thumb.jpg.dbb18378194d58ebc2b1badda9aaeecd.jpg

^HUI: I don't want to help anyone who has interests other than those who would be bullish.  I'm going to say, now...Is probably a good time to be watching closely here.  Any inversions in trading patterns against the broad market complex or apparent crossing over into a trading range(185-215) are temporary.  150(for now) should contain any downside spike.

GLD: Watching 160.  Will not comment any further.  Action is imminent...

Best,

TCG

oh...and...

Full moon on the 10th, open window on the 11th going into the 12th.  Patiently waiting for...It. It being the catalyst to "Jump the Creek" in all areas of interest.

^XOI:

Speaking of the 11th going into the 12th...I can remember not too many moons ago when the 21st was going into the 22nd(of September).  The year was 2011.  It was the day the goldbugs fell silent. 

Although, the week before the  silence fell...I'm pretty sure I had been called every name in the book.  I believe "complete idiot" was a crowd favorite.

I'm just going to park this here as a personal remembrance of that very day...

My stump speech was entitled, "The 610 to Nowhere". 

867231316_ATripDownMemoryLane-September72022.thumb.jpg.d42ebf71c9dfe3f99413d4786bb672d9.jpg

Hey...how's the ^XOI holding up?  Is it still north of 1610, er, uh...1600?

565471803_TwoPeasinaPod-September72022.thumb.jpg.22b90077235bab771cd87918a4ef0ad2.jpg

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4 minutes ago, MisFit Kid said:

Flo-Bot Wednesday?

buy.JPG.195379d079050be6b91352e48fd8f28a.JPG

TLT, Perferreds, JNK

Schwab's Dividend, small cap, broad, and growth indexes....

Look at the N-Sych (or is that Sync?)

 

EUR/USD too, that one is probably the main reason for the move today. DAX was pretty strong all day too. European whales intervene, most likely the ECB itself.

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