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Weak Jobs Data Will Surprise Market, Trigger Rally in Bonds and Stocks 9/2/22

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1 minute ago, fxfox said:

The „Lehman Event“ could be Taiwan, but only if the West would impose sanctions on Red China. Market would perceive that as the End of Globalization and would start to „price-out“ the globalization premium.

The market does not price in or price out. It floats on the surface of the Liquidity Sea. 

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The Lehman "event" was just an excuse. The 2008 crash was foreordained by Fed policy. I covered it and forecast it at the time, almost to the day, and never once paid any attention to news noise. These things are just excuses. Cute stories to give the market a narrative. Liquidity and cycles, which are simply the nature of nature, are the be all and end all. d

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When the market needs a trigger, one will be found. It always has and always will. I warned repeatedly for months that liquidity would dry up in August and September. It is. The market doesn't need any excuse to crash. The siphon is primed and running. 

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So we have the maginot now: 3900 SPX. If it goes we go in one straight line to the June lows.

See: There is still room for much less liquidity. Folks are still not reducing their monthly automated ETF buying, thanks to the marketing trick of „Dollar Cost Averaging“.

This bear will not end before folks are conpletely fed up with stocks, like in 2003.

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1 minute ago, fxfox said:

So we have the maginot now: 3900 SPX. If it goes we go in one straight line to the June lows.

See: There is still room for much less liquidity. Folks are still not reducing their monthly automated ETF buying, thanks to the marketing trick of „Dollar Cost Averaging“.

This bear will not end before folks are conpletely fed up with stocks, like in 2003.

It will end when the Fed reverses policy. Probably with a severely delayed reaction this time. 

Chow! 

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