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Escape from New York 8/29/22

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This is the opening for my Technical Trader report that I'm now working on and should be posted around 7:30 AM in New York. 

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Wall Street loves to tell you not to panic when the time comes to sell everything. To them panic means sell. But the truth is, panic is like a deer frozen in the headlights. Just before it gets run over by the oncoming 18 wheeler at speeding along at 80 miles an hour on I-80 as it flees west across New Jersey making its escape from New York.

That’s what this market will do if you freeze now. It will run you over.

We’ve had plenty of warning. The propitious time to act on the oncoming danger has passed. But it’s not ok to panic and freeze now. Because this is likely to get much worse in the coming months. Any rallies are unlikely to get back to where we will be at the high of the day today, whether that’s on the New York open, or sometime later. 

Freak Out Now Before It’s Too Late August 29, 2022

Maybe this is a sign that the bottom is in. 😄 

Meanwhile a look at the 2 hour bars on the ES 24 hour S&P fugutures says, not quite. In fact, the conventional measured move implication of the top pattern breakdown is around 3900. Hell, we could make that by 10:30 AM. Then we get the face ripping short covering rally. 

Or maybe all the shorts covered early last week. If nobody's short, the market can proceed to go straight to hell. Do not pass go. Do not collect $200. 

yulpc

The usual 1 hour bar look shows a 5 day cycle projection only around 4010, which they hit this morning.

Any rally must clear 4035 and 4041 to prevent additional rapid melting.  And even if it does that, it would face layers of resistance every 10-20 points above that. What about a V bottom? First, they'd need to clear 4041 and 4055. Then it's possible. Otherwise, extending the crash looks like the path of least resistance. 

If they do get to 3900, then a V bottom would be more likely to be on the menu. 

tvc_ccc04ae9802f421a747ef0a3ad6c141e.png

 

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YES THERE IS NO BOND SANTA

TLT now down 23% YTD

Isnt that just wonderful.....

When did it top out.....

1 July 2020.....just after the end of the financial year....

 A co-incidence....I think not.

After all ....when the 2 and 20 fees are in the pocket.....after 30 June 2020 .....

Its time to sell out and run for the hills.......

 

The FED knows there are no good solutions left.

And so they have left the markets to there own devices....

A bout of primal scream therapy is in order...

The SandP should be trading around 3000.

 

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