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Late Start for Market Rollover 8/26/22

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I had warned for months in Liquidity Trader that August would be the month everything turns to shit. 

Such as:

We’ve had a helluva rally in stocks and bonds. The conditions were right for this rally, and we expected it. However, it was a bit bigger than I thought it would be. There was more liquidity around then even I expected. And the Street did its job of squeezing the shorts and creating a false narrative about pending recession and the end of Fed tightening to drive the rally. It was all BS, but it worked.

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It will no longer work. Liquidity will dry up like a California forest in July. The fires will start, and without liquidity to douse them, they will burn like the fires of Dante’s hell. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The US Treasury confirmed yesterday that there will be an enormous increase in supply in August, just as I was able to previously project based on the facts and trend data we already had. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The stock and bond rallies are not long for this earth. It’s time to watch for, and heed, the technical sell signals. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

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11 minutes ago, DrStool said:

I had warned for months in Liquidity Trader that August would be the month everything turns to shit. 

Such as:

We’ve had a helluva rally in stocks and bonds. The conditions were right for this rally, and we expected it. However, it was a bit bigger than I thought it would be. There was more liquidity around then even I expected. And the Street did its job of squeezing the shorts and creating a false narrative about pending recession and the end of Fed tightening to drive the rally. It was all BS, but it worked.

Subscribers, click here to download the complete report.

Non-subscribers, click here for access.

It will no longer work. Liquidity will dry up like a California forest in July. The fires will start, and without liquidity to douse them, they will burn like the fires of Dante’s hell. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The US Treasury confirmed yesterday that there will be an enormous increase in supply in August, just as I was able to previously project based on the facts and trend data we already had. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

The stock and bond rallies are not long for this earth. It’s time to watch for, and heed, the technical sell signals. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

Then let's hope that September and October turn out to be the shinola part. Some nice, bright red shoe polish to slather all over Mr. Market. 

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I blame a flaw in Chrome mobile app on my phone for the repeats.  I can't blame anyone but myself for guessing QT would end in August. I'm hoping they can hold off a year but I doubt it. I'll go with January now.

 

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SOME MORE THOUGHTS ON OXY

Uncle Warren could have bought all the Oxy he wanted in 2020 for under $20.

Paying over $70 now does not represent what I consider value.

I can't really see much more upside in the stock.

I can see a lot of sideways movement.

 

Re JHole and what the FED says

At this stage of the proceedings it does'nt really matter.

Either they go back to printing to counter the treasury issuing tsunami.....

Or its game over.....

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I leave for a day and 5 pages?  1000 point decline and I believe fxfox said something about Powell could have said a "1000" things...he did, obviously.  Smile. 

ETH...

If I feel I'm off I like to convey this message immediately.  After viewing my comments on ETH, I'm wondering what was in the tea...

I've always stated BTC will/should follow PYPL with roundnumberitis.  I'm not switching from this thesis until it proves to be wrong.   In the "Twin Peaks" Formation there are several varieties of declines...I was comparing ETH with the weekly chart on OXY.  That is what led me to make the comment I made.  While the comparison chart is quite beautiful...I don't think it is as accurate as my initial interpretation of BTC vs PYPL.

Here is a quick and dirty updated chart...Apologize for the quality(all the important bits are there) but I'm literally slammed here.  I'm attempting to do 20 things at once...and I'm supposed to be recovering from surgery.

292121902_BTCvsPYPL-August272022.thumb.jpg.c4055ebf37749197ad3fcc18dae174ee.jpg

I will reiterate my position...I would consider all cryptocurrencies going to zero to be at their true value.

Best,

TCG

oh...and...

Didn't comment on the broad markets much...

SPX: I believe my "A Fractal within a Fractal" chart makes my perspective clear.  Below the key pivot at 4160 on Volume opens the door to 3750.

GLD: Still watching 160 to confirm the KEY.

HUI:  All eyes should be on the swing at 194.26(200).  From my perspective, a bounce into 225(235 KEY) can't be ruled out until the swing cracks on Volume.  IF it cracks...150 is stronger support - for a time.

MFK:  Always loved Missing Persons...Destination Unknown, I could almost equate that title to my own personal theme song. Take care...

 

 

 

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14 hours ago, Jimi said:

The beautiful thing about Friday's close is I get to look at the 30 minute candles all weekend when I check in here.

Ghoul for you. 

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THE MYTHICAL LAND OF THERE

You never get to there.

If you ever do get to there then you find out that there is no there there.

No body rings the "There bell"

Anyway on the bondholders are bagholders theme.....

I have previously said ther has been no real compensation for holding treasuries for the last 5 years.

I was wrong......

Its really for the last ten years.

And who has been the major beneficiary.....of this sea of cheap free debt.

The private equity crowd.....

Riding on the inflationary/QE/print wave.......

And now it is all coming to an end......

The frame forces are reversing......

Its not going to be pretty.

 

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Not only the Private Equity crowd, the EQUITY crowd as a whole were beneficiaries of cheap debt, that allowed them to leverage up till the wheels fall off. And let‘s not forget all those 23 year old house flippers who thought they are the smartest guys ever been born… In Germany we had/have an absolute sick RE boom, thanks to the ECB. Even upper middle class folk can‘t afford to buy a new house.

The „comeback“ of significant rates will have many consequences. One of it: Big insurers will sell stocks and RE. That was were they desperately „invested“ in the last few years when rates were negative in Europe.

BUT:

The consequences of all that unfolding like we believe it will, would be so catastrophic that it likely will not happen. It would lead to major political instability for example, espacially in Europe.

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On 8/27/2022 at 12:30 PM, Jimbo said:

SOME MORE THOUGHTS ON OXY

Uncle Warren could have bought all the Oxy he wanted in 2020 for under $20.

Paying over $70 now does not represent what I consider value.

I can't really see much more upside in the stock.

I can see a lot of sideways movement.

Weird deal indeed. He bought OXY more or less at the top. Other oilers like Marathon also at long term top, look at the MRO chart since the 70s, more or less no upside potential left…

Buffet made some really weird deals in the past. He always said that he doesn‘t like investment banking yet he bought Salomon Bastards in 87 and look what then happened:

 

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