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Watch Out! The Downtrend Channel Was Broken! 8/22/22

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to the DOWNSIDE. Whoa. WTF. 

Just a correction in the new bull market? 

LOLOL

Je ne sais pa. 

First the 2 hour bar perspective on the ES, S&P 500 24 hour futures. This morning's pre market dive combined with Friday's has now broken 5 significant uptrend channel lines, without so much as a by your leave. A sixth is now being challenged as of 6:30 AM in New York.  The key sport level is 4166. Break that, and the next target would be 4141. 

ysvt7

Now for the one hour bar look. The measured move target of the head and shoulders breakdown is 4275. They hot stoved that in the last couple of hours. The 5 day cycle projection is 4160-65, but there's a chance that it could be as low as 4120. Hourly cycle oscillators have broken previous lows and continue to weaken apace. There's no sign of a low forming here yet. 

ysvtm

 

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COMPARING PAST AND PRESENT INFLATION

w30116.pdf (nber.org)

"There have been important methodological changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over time. These distort comparisons of inflation from different periods, which have become more prevalent as inflation has risen to 40-year highs. To better contextualize the current run-up in inflation, this paper constructs new historical series for CPI headline and core inflation that are more consistent with current practices and expenditure shares for the post-war period. Using these series, we find that current inflation levels are much closer to past inflation peaks than the official series would suggest. In particular, the rate of core CPI disinflation caused by Volcker-era policies is significantly lower when measured using today’s treatment of housing: only 5 percentage points of decline instead of 11 percentage points in the official CPI statistics. To return to 2 percent core CPI inflation today will thus require nearly the same amount of disinflation as achieved under Chairman Volcker."

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54 minutes ago, fxfox said:

COMPARING PAST AND PRESENT INFLATION

w30116.pdf (nber.org)

"There have been important methodological changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over time. These distort comparisons of inflation from different periods, which have become more prevalent as inflation has risen to 40-year highs. To better contextualize the current run-up in inflation, this paper constructs new historical series for CPI headline and core inflation that are more consistent with current practices and expenditure shares for the post-war period. Using these series, we find that current inflation levels are much closer to past inflation peaks than the official series would suggest. In particular, the rate of core CPI disinflation caused by Volcker-era policies is significantly lower when measured using today’s treatment of housing: only 5 percentage points of decline instead of 11 percentage points in the official CPI statistics. To return to 2 percent core CPI inflation today will thus require nearly the same amount of disinflation as achieved under Chairman Volcker."

They're a little fucking late. I've been reporting on the exclusion and fudging of the housing component for a decade. And goons like the NBER economists are the ones backing the lying and cheating and stealing all the time. The vast majority of economists are nothing more than paid crooks. 

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21 minutes ago, fxfox said:

Doc,

where is the long term uptrendline on the monthly Buttcoin chart exactly? Somewhere around 21k, right?

tvc_365c0eaeca69cf796669b67844cbb3a1.png

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