DrStool Posted August 22, 2022 Report Share Posted August 22, 2022 to the DOWNSIDE. Whoa. WTF. Just a correction in the new bull market? LOLOL Je ne sais pa. First the 2 hour bar perspective on the ES, S&P 500 24 hour futures. This morning's pre market dive combined with Friday's has now broken 5 significant uptrend channel lines, without so much as a by your leave. A sixth is now being challenged as of 6:30 AM in New York. The key sport level is 4166. Break that, and the next target would be 4141. Now for the one hour bar look. The measured move target of the head and shoulders breakdown is 4275. They hot stoved that in the last couple of hours. The 5 day cycle projection is 4160-65, but there's a chance that it could be as low as 4120. Hourly cycle oscillators have broken previous lows and continue to weaken apace. There's no sign of a low forming here yet. To understand and profit from the big picture check out the following. Stock Market Uptrend Cracks – Look Out Below August 22, 2022 Has Rule Number One Been Repealed? August 18, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – Buys Overwhelm Sells, It’s Late But One Sector Looks Ready to Roll August 15, 2022 Yikes! August 15, 2022 Mildly Bullish Outlook for Gold Holds August 13, 2022 “As Good as It Gets” Was Good While It Lasted August 6, 2022 Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022 Withholding Tax Collections Solid in July, But Here’s Why the Party is Over August 2, 2022 The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers July 27, 2022 As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time July 18, 2022 Are the Fed and Treasury Geniuses, or Just Lucky? Part One July 12, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2022 Euro is set to break a buck. Next stop, 97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 22, 2022 Report Share Posted August 22, 2022 COMPARING PAST AND PRESENT INFLATION w30116.pdf (nber.org) "There have been important methodological changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over time. These distort comparisons of inflation from different periods, which have become more prevalent as inflation has risen to 40-year highs. To better contextualize the current run-up in inflation, this paper constructs new historical series for CPI headline and core inflation that are more consistent with current practices and expenditure shares for the post-war period. Using these series, we find that current inflation levels are much closer to past inflation peaks than the official series would suggest. In particular, the rate of core CPI disinflation caused by Volcker-era policies is significantly lower when measured using today’s treatment of housing: only 5 percentage points of decline instead of 11 percentage points in the official CPI statistics. To return to 2 percent core CPI inflation today will thus require nearly the same amount of disinflation as achieved under Chairman Volcker." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – Hit the Jackpot Last Week, New Shorts This Week LEE ADLER 2 - TECHNICAL TRADER AUGUST 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2022 54 minutes ago, fxfox said: COMPARING PAST AND PRESENT INFLATION w30116.pdf (nber.org) "There have been important methodological changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over time. These distort comparisons of inflation from different periods, which have become more prevalent as inflation has risen to 40-year highs. To better contextualize the current run-up in inflation, this paper constructs new historical series for CPI headline and core inflation that are more consistent with current practices and expenditure shares for the post-war period. Using these series, we find that current inflation levels are much closer to past inflation peaks than the official series would suggest. In particular, the rate of core CPI disinflation caused by Volcker-era policies is significantly lower when measured using today’s treatment of housing: only 5 percentage points of decline instead of 11 percentage points in the official CPI statistics. To return to 2 percent core CPI inflation today will thus require nearly the same amount of disinflation as achieved under Chairman Volcker." They're a little fucking late. I've been reporting on the exclusion and fudging of the housing component for a decade. And goons like the NBER economists are the ones backing the lying and cheating and stealing all the time. The vast majority of economists are nothing more than paid crooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2022 At least 10 years, maybe longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted August 22, 2022 Report Share Posted August 22, 2022 0.999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2022 5 day cycle projection 4145 pretty much done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOnce Posted August 22, 2022 Report Share Posted August 22, 2022 gloomberg had a damning report concerning phoenix. millions of folks don't get it that there ain't no mo' water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BreakOut Posted August 22, 2022 Report Share Posted August 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fxfox Posted August 22, 2022 Report Share Posted August 22, 2022 Doc, where is the long term uptrendline on the monthly Buttcoin chart exactly? Somewhere around 21k, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2022 5 day cycle projection now 4120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2022 2-3 day cycle projection 4140. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2022 21 minutes ago, fxfox said: Doc, where is the long term uptrendline on the monthly Buttcoin chart exactly? Somewhere around 21k, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted August 22, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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