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What is This Strange Color on My Screen - 8/19/22

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Meaning of life?  I spent decades pondering over that question until I died once.  Haven't thought about it since.

It's all temporary...we go on from here.

This is nothing more than a short dream...

That is my call.

 

1000 - 1000 - 1000

I'm leaving Sunday to head to the coast.  As mentioned...I will post my final public commentary on the markets when the GLD reaches 130.  At 130 on the GLD I'm going to retire...I should have done so decades ago.

In this posting...I'm going to combine my thoughts on the ^XOI with a couple of charts that I would normally post on a Monday morning. 

I'll give you the two charts first...

SPX:

111760239_AFractalwithinaFractal-August202022.thumb.jpg.4f3b661cf9425dda63ea9343a249b1ca.jpg

GLD:

603092098_CanyouBELIEVEitNow-August202022.thumb.jpg.940bcc7a625168d47f9b6dc286674115.jpg

XOI:

1284895806_LifeISaSymphony...AreyouListening-June202022.thumb.jpg.e33e03bd99869e0e44f9ffd305f41573.jpg

There is no new chart here, just the original because I don't see a need for a new chart as of yet...

My comment on the ^XOI:

My top call in the ^XOI on June 8th?  Other than minor relief at the pumps...I still haven't heard anyone talking about it much.  The first decline was very swift and there is another set-up(possible "Twin Peaks") possibly developing in the ^XOI.  So far...off the top has been a VERY fast moving chart pattern and it spells trouble that could come quick and severe if you're on the wrong side of the trade.  I'm going to just say this...If it fails to recover 1700 and falls through 1600 on volume...two things will occur.

1)  A 1000 point crash.

We've come off the peak of a spike advance and have collapsed back into the channel of a large long term topping pattern that measures back to 2007.   This is the exact same topping pattern from the ^HUI in 2011!  This pattern should be well known by now.  The typical move from the high will have you playing out A 1000 point drop in the index.  From here...this will come in two steps.  The first leg down from our current position will be a neck breaker.  The second will bring you to the lower tier of the long-term channel. 

As of now...I feel comfortable saying this.  600(-100) would be the time to start looking to walk away...or begin to reverse course - for a large counter-trend bounce, BUT will not even be close to the ultimate low in the index.  Timeframe? At a minimum...a decade or more.  Considering the accelerated move into Electric anything...and what I perceive as a greater depression as of January 5th, 2022 the high may never be revisited.

2)  At the failure of 1600 on volume...a secular long term bear market will be confirmed. 

In closing:

The 100 point minimum(1000 point equivalent) decline in the GLD is well underway, the key at 170 has been breached and below 160 on volume it is then confirmed.  In the XOI, a 1000 point decline will ensue if the key at 1600 is penetrated on volume and in the SPX...Once 4160 falls the 1000 point decline in the SPX from 4250 to 3250 will be underway. 

At 3250, it will rest for a time before a rinse and repeat.  If we take 2008 into consideration...it will be DURING THAT REST PERIOD THAT THE BAD MAN COMES AND DOESN'T GO AWAY. AKA:  Lehman Brothers with a 2022 twist.

The end result of the ensuing decline will be exactly as I stated from the peak. 

"The pull for all issues will be towards the March 23, 2020 lows."

2,24(x) to 2,25(x) = Magnet.

2.24, 224, 2m24d, 2,24(x), 8.24(+/- 6m).

Huh?

To repeat the idea espoused in the chart entitled "Dust in the Wind" one more time...I'll paraphase(actual chart below).

"The response to the Lehmanesque decline will be the mis-step."

"After the party is over and momentum has waned...the real bear market will get underway".

By that time...Insolvency, drip by drip will be the order of the day.

Best Regards,

TCG

oh...and...

Dust in the Wind - May 2nd, 2022

75867782_DustintheWind-May22022.thumb.jpg.dddde736179bfc21e105502157fdb7b6.jpg

 

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23 hours ago, The CoinGuy said:

As mentioned...I will post my final public commentary on the markets when the GLD reaches 130. 

I think you have misunderstood Rule #3: "Those who retire are obliged to post more often."

Your friend,

Jimi

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